"If you’re anti-woke, the arguments come across as so poorly formulated and illogical that you end up discussing motives."
If you read Plato with a critical eye you will find that it's always been quite possible for a brilliant mind to accept poorly formulated and illogical arguments.
Rather than saying that woke people have a system of thought designed to undermine evidence, as Warby suggests, I think it's more accurate to say that there are two subgroups of the movement. Some woke intellectuals are like Spivak or Kendi and these ones fit Warby's description. Others like Adam Grant or Claudine Gay are quite rigorous about evidence in a way, but too credulous about accepting expert consensus and politically biased research.
The same goes on the anti woke side by the way. There's a certain faction of people like Brett Weinstein, James Lindsay and Scott Adams who indulge in conspiracy theories and postmodern dismissal of objective evidence. And there are others who treat obviously biased research from people like Sailer or Kirkegaard as deserving of uncritical acceptance.
I want to put in here that I am enjoying your "macro memoir". I appreciate its straightforward clarity; must have been harder to produce than it might seem. I move through it a little at a time googling the various econ fashions as I go, having taken no econ class, ever. I think it would be a useful exercise if more professional pundits made themselves go through a similar exercise, detailing the evolution of their thinking.
Re: "when I look at the progressive beliefs that I could echo in order to be a member in good standing of my social class, I think: nope, not me."
Arnold, Is there any social class that would be a good fit for you? To put it another way, channeling Grouch Marx: Is there any club you would want to belong to, that would have you as a member?
"I may have inherited what I am calling an outsider mindset from my father."....Me too I think.
"My own father was disdainful of both Progressivism and Capitalism but, in 50s, 60s and 70s Britain, such attitudes were rare even among Tories. My own teenage political stirrings - in the time of Labour Party politics and All You Need is Love youth culture - were a mixed bag. On the one hand society’s need for ‘Equality’ seemed axiomatic to me but, on the other hand, most everyone who talked about it (both politicians and my own teenage peers) struck me as have-your-cake-and-eat-it merchants. Then there was university and the instinctive sense that not being ‘on the Left’ would be really bad for your love life........Fast forward to career, marriage and children and, for several years, politics - Lefty or otherwise - was very low on my mental horizon. Then in the early Thatcher 80s - to the dismay of everyone around me - I emerged from my Progressive chrysalis as the small-c armchair conservative that I remain to this day." https://grahamcunningham.substack.com/p/are-we-making-progress
When interpreting survey results like the ones Henderson cites, I think you need to correct for the cheap talk effect. Namely, if a policy stands no realistic chance of actually being enacted, and everyone knows that so nobody is going to spend time and energy advocating for it, BUT saying you're for it still makes people feel morally righteous, then the % in favor on a survey is going to overestimate the real percentage who would seriously support it.
This is, for example, true of outlandishly restrictive anti-climate change policies. Henderson is directionally correct that elites are more concerned than the median voter about climate change and more genuinely willing to support relatively modest/incremental measures like carbon taxes. But, as someone whose social circle is composed mostly of left-wing elite members, I can guarantee you that you would not get 89% of that circle in favor, or even a majority in favor, of actual rationing or bans on flights, meat eating, etc if that were ever seriously proposed. The bans that have gotten elite-majority support, e.g. for gas stoves, are precisely those that are not perceived as significantly changing anyone's lifestyle.
Very well said Arnold. “That perhaps explains my attraction to libertarian thinking. But in terms of personal conduct, I am very conservative (no drinking, no recreational drugs, one marriage), so that was bound to blend into my political outlook eventually.”
I describe my myself similarly. When it comes to government and the wider society I’m libertarian. When it comes to my family and my community I’m conservative. My problem with many socialists and progressives is that they simply won’t leave my family alone. My framework allows them to create communes and live out their socialists and progressive dreams, but they do not respect my family and our rights to live out our dreams. This is why I started Substacking heavily about the definition of religion in the context of First Amendment. I believe we need to broaden the scope of the meaning of religion to include education and all means of learning.
Arnold describes his "outsider" mindset: "resentful of authority, not willing to adopt a set of beliefs just to get along. In psychometric terms, low on agreeableness." One shouldn't simply resent authority per se. Authority is defined as the moral (or legal) right to control, i.e., power accepted as legitimate. No society can exist without authority; the question is whether it is justly exercised and limited to situations where necessary. For example, it is pointless to resent the rule (authority) that we drive on the right. But instead we have an arrogant power mad technocratic incompetent and corrupt elite that meddles in everything. To rightfully resent this does not make one low on the Big Five trait of Agreeableness. Pardon the personal reference, but I share this attitude, yet have been rated on the Understand Myself personality assessment (see www.understandmyself.com) as above average on that trait.
I wrote about the supposed support for strict rationing of flying some time ago:
"The results of [the] poll seemed to imply that 41% of the French population is in favor of limiting everyone to having four air flights in their entire life".
I have very definitely outsider views relative to standard Progressive ones and this is easy enough to understand in someone who grew up in the ‘50s in a small East Texas town with two parents without completed college degrees.
Still, I feel even MORE of an outsider to the standard anti-Progressive views. _My_ form of conservatism is to hark back to the spirit of WJ Clinton-ism, “true” neoliberalism. The goal being rapid, inclusive growth, using markets to achieve social goals. As a bit of caricature, I have (much later) developed a slogan to go on the banners at the kind of protest march I’d like to attend:
“We demand more mutually beneficial transactions between consenting adults (many of whom will have recently migrated to the US) in goods and services produced and consumed with no un-Pigou taxed/subsidized (or regulatory equivalents) negative/positive externalities with some of the benefits of these transactions subject to progressive consumption taxes for redistribution to (otherwise) low consumption people.”
The truly radical part of this being the Pigou taxes/regulations: firearms, CO2 net emissions, vehicle congestion, land use restrictions and building codes, merit-based immigration.
Good note about “virtuous victims” - how victims actions are considered more virtuous than he same actions by non victims. Victimhood increases righteousness.
For me, it’s The Quest For Moral Superiority. The book I’d most want to write if I could write one.
My own unstable young life of divorce, custody battles, growing up with father & stepfather & 8 different schools by 8th grade, until divorce and family split with 3 sisters & stepsister going with their mothers, I going with grandparents, who continued supporting their alcoholic son, some.
Then I went to the Naval Academy, since I thought the discipline would be good for me, but left for Stanford after 2 years. More similar to Rob than to Arnold. No surprise that military meritocracy, plus lots of rules, is so often the route taken by troubled boys who then turn out pretty successful.
Having a happy marriage (30 years in Oct), plus 4 kids & now 3 grandkids is a big success for me. Family stability is more important than differences in 3 middle income quintiles (20-40, 40-60, 60-80). Rob doesn’t mention H Biden’s drug & sex crimes, but Hunter’s a good example of a spoiled rich brat getting away with crimes most folk would go to jail for. Most Dems think … about Trump mean tweets or anything other than the Bidens as real people they vote for.
Rob includes info about his DC AEI book tour appearance.
Has Arnold ordered or gotten a review copy of Troubled?
In my tribe indeed - I have what I call an “outsider” mindset, one that I can sense in many of the people who comment on this blog: resentful of authority, not willing to adopt a set of beliefs just to get along. In psychometric terms, low on agreeableness.
Arnold's mindset resonates with me. I too resist political labels and tribal affiliations. The downside is that it's difficult to socially navigate a world in which everyone seems to be either aggressively conservative or aggressively liberal.
So just one observation reading Rob Henderson's post. Asuch as I value his opinions, I question the accuracy of the Rasussen survey he cites. I looked at the survey webpage, and it was an online survey of about 1,000 "elite-plus" graduates. I would meet this definition, and I assume that a fair number of this blog's readers would also. However, I would never-ever participate in a survey like this, because I would not see it being worth the time. I wonder if the survey results accurately portray the views of the elites. If I had to guess, I would say YES, but not to the overwhelming degree indicated by the survey. But I'd still be guessing.
"If you’re anti-woke, the arguments come across as so poorly formulated and illogical that you end up discussing motives."
If you read Plato with a critical eye you will find that it's always been quite possible for a brilliant mind to accept poorly formulated and illogical arguments.
Rather than saying that woke people have a system of thought designed to undermine evidence, as Warby suggests, I think it's more accurate to say that there are two subgroups of the movement. Some woke intellectuals are like Spivak or Kendi and these ones fit Warby's description. Others like Adam Grant or Claudine Gay are quite rigorous about evidence in a way, but too credulous about accepting expert consensus and politically biased research.
The same goes on the anti woke side by the way. There's a certain faction of people like Brett Weinstein, James Lindsay and Scott Adams who indulge in conspiracy theories and postmodern dismissal of objective evidence. And there are others who treat obviously biased research from people like Sailer or Kirkegaard as deserving of uncritical acceptance.
I want to put in here that I am enjoying your "macro memoir". I appreciate its straightforward clarity; must have been harder to produce than it might seem. I move through it a little at a time googling the various econ fashions as I go, having taken no econ class, ever. I think it would be a useful exercise if more professional pundits made themselves go through a similar exercise, detailing the evolution of their thinking.
Re: "when I look at the progressive beliefs that I could echo in order to be a member in good standing of my social class, I think: nope, not me."
Arnold, Is there any social class that would be a good fit for you? To put it another way, channeling Grouch Marx: Is there any club you would want to belong to, that would have you as a member?
"I may have inherited what I am calling an outsider mindset from my father."....Me too I think.
"My own father was disdainful of both Progressivism and Capitalism but, in 50s, 60s and 70s Britain, such attitudes were rare even among Tories. My own teenage political stirrings - in the time of Labour Party politics and All You Need is Love youth culture - were a mixed bag. On the one hand society’s need for ‘Equality’ seemed axiomatic to me but, on the other hand, most everyone who talked about it (both politicians and my own teenage peers) struck me as have-your-cake-and-eat-it merchants. Then there was university and the instinctive sense that not being ‘on the Left’ would be really bad for your love life........Fast forward to career, marriage and children and, for several years, politics - Lefty or otherwise - was very low on my mental horizon. Then in the early Thatcher 80s - to the dismay of everyone around me - I emerged from my Progressive chrysalis as the small-c armchair conservative that I remain to this day." https://grahamcunningham.substack.com/p/are-we-making-progress
When interpreting survey results like the ones Henderson cites, I think you need to correct for the cheap talk effect. Namely, if a policy stands no realistic chance of actually being enacted, and everyone knows that so nobody is going to spend time and energy advocating for it, BUT saying you're for it still makes people feel morally righteous, then the % in favor on a survey is going to overestimate the real percentage who would seriously support it.
This is, for example, true of outlandishly restrictive anti-climate change policies. Henderson is directionally correct that elites are more concerned than the median voter about climate change and more genuinely willing to support relatively modest/incremental measures like carbon taxes. But, as someone whose social circle is composed mostly of left-wing elite members, I can guarantee you that you would not get 89% of that circle in favor, or even a majority in favor, of actual rationing or bans on flights, meat eating, etc if that were ever seriously proposed. The bans that have gotten elite-majority support, e.g. for gas stoves, are precisely those that are not perceived as significantly changing anyone's lifestyle.
Very well said Arnold. “That perhaps explains my attraction to libertarian thinking. But in terms of personal conduct, I am very conservative (no drinking, no recreational drugs, one marriage), so that was bound to blend into my political outlook eventually.”
I describe my myself similarly. When it comes to government and the wider society I’m libertarian. When it comes to my family and my community I’m conservative. My problem with many socialists and progressives is that they simply won’t leave my family alone. My framework allows them to create communes and live out their socialists and progressive dreams, but they do not respect my family and our rights to live out our dreams. This is why I started Substacking heavily about the definition of religion in the context of First Amendment. I believe we need to broaden the scope of the meaning of religion to include education and all means of learning.
Arnold describes his "outsider" mindset: "resentful of authority, not willing to adopt a set of beliefs just to get along. In psychometric terms, low on agreeableness." One shouldn't simply resent authority per se. Authority is defined as the moral (or legal) right to control, i.e., power accepted as legitimate. No society can exist without authority; the question is whether it is justly exercised and limited to situations where necessary. For example, it is pointless to resent the rule (authority) that we drive on the right. But instead we have an arrogant power mad technocratic incompetent and corrupt elite that meddles in everything. To rightfully resent this does not make one low on the Big Five trait of Agreeableness. Pardon the personal reference, but I share this attitude, yet have been rated on the Understand Myself personality assessment (see www.understandmyself.com) as above average on that trait.
I wrote about the supposed support for strict rationing of flying some time ago:
"The results of [the] poll seemed to imply that 41% of the French population is in favor of limiting everyone to having four air flights in their entire life".
https://www.mangosorbananas.com/p/if-they-say-it-on-twitter-it-must
I have very definitely outsider views relative to standard Progressive ones and this is easy enough to understand in someone who grew up in the ‘50s in a small East Texas town with two parents without completed college degrees.
Still, I feel even MORE of an outsider to the standard anti-Progressive views. _My_ form of conservatism is to hark back to the spirit of WJ Clinton-ism, “true” neoliberalism. The goal being rapid, inclusive growth, using markets to achieve social goals. As a bit of caricature, I have (much later) developed a slogan to go on the banners at the kind of protest march I’d like to attend:
“We demand more mutually beneficial transactions between consenting adults (many of whom will have recently migrated to the US) in goods and services produced and consumed with no un-Pigou taxed/subsidized (or regulatory equivalents) negative/positive externalities with some of the benefits of these transactions subject to progressive consumption taxes for redistribution to (otherwise) low consumption people.”
The truly radical part of this being the Pigou taxes/regulations: firearms, CO2 net emissions, vehicle congestion, land use restrictions and building codes, merit-based immigration.
This is the best Substack that exists because it cuts to the underlying cause and effect dynamics, with the focus on cause.
Sometimes I think we are living in political or social times simply because we can afford silly ideas and still eat.
But the human brain may not be well equipped to do objective independent analysis, the world may be understood by and large in relative terms.
Everyone is walking around panicking that others agree with their worldview.
Thank god to be otherwise.
https://www.robkhenderson.com/p/luxury-beliefs-that-only-the-privileged
Good note about “virtuous victims” - how victims actions are considered more virtuous than he same actions by non victims. Victimhood increases righteousness.
For me, it’s The Quest For Moral Superiority. The book I’d most want to write if I could write one.
My own unstable young life of divorce, custody battles, growing up with father & stepfather & 8 different schools by 8th grade, until divorce and family split with 3 sisters & stepsister going with their mothers, I going with grandparents, who continued supporting their alcoholic son, some.
Then I went to the Naval Academy, since I thought the discipline would be good for me, but left for Stanford after 2 years. More similar to Rob than to Arnold. No surprise that military meritocracy, plus lots of rules, is so often the route taken by troubled boys who then turn out pretty successful.
Having a happy marriage (30 years in Oct), plus 4 kids & now 3 grandkids is a big success for me. Family stability is more important than differences in 3 middle income quintiles (20-40, 40-60, 60-80). Rob doesn’t mention H Biden’s drug & sex crimes, but Hunter’s a good example of a spoiled rich brat getting away with crimes most folk would go to jail for. Most Dems think … about Trump mean tweets or anything other than the Bidens as real people they vote for.
Rob includes info about his DC AEI book tour appearance.
Has Arnold ordered or gotten a review copy of Troubled?
short Henderson:
managers got to manage
the managerial class supports those policies that give them more power
Arnold, did you ever know a guy in the '70's in St. Louis named Jack Kopeck?
In my tribe indeed - I have what I call an “outsider” mindset, one that I can sense in many of the people who comment on this blog: resentful of authority, not willing to adopt a set of beliefs just to get along. In psychometric terms, low on agreeableness.
Arnold's mindset resonates with me. I too resist political labels and tribal affiliations. The downside is that it's difficult to socially navigate a world in which everyone seems to be either aggressively conservative or aggressively liberal.
So just one observation reading Rob Henderson's post. Asuch as I value his opinions, I question the accuracy of the Rasussen survey he cites. I looked at the survey webpage, and it was an online survey of about 1,000 "elite-plus" graduates. I would meet this definition, and I assume that a fair number of this blog's readers would also. However, I would never-ever participate in a survey like this, because I would not see it being worth the time. I wonder if the survey results accurately portray the views of the elites. If I had to guess, I would say YES, but not to the overwhelming degree indicated by the survey. But I'd still be guessing.