21 Comments
Jun 25, 2022Liked by Arnold Kling

I think both meme stock and crypto people have retained their senses of humor, even (especially?) about meme stocks and crypto. When meme stock people tweet stuff like, "To the moon!", they are at least half joking about themselves, or at least some of them are.

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Apple has convinced hundreds of millions of people that paying 2 to 5 times more for a product makes them smarter

But Amway! They brainwash people.

Seems to me Apple is the most successful organization ever at capturing people's minds. Good for them.

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Jun 24, 2022ยทedited Jun 24, 2022

Bernie Madoff.

Elizabeth Holmes.

And those two bilked people who would generally be considered sophisticated investors, IIRC.

The Amway shtick is probably necessary for mass-market delusion but you can do a lot by working the "you're joining an exclusive club" line with the folks who think they sssmmmaaaahhhhttttt.

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I would argue that partisan political groups - especially hyper-partisan or blinders on, single-issue political groups - have become cults. Such groups on both ends of the spectrum certainly fit the description:

"Some features that I have noticed about cults: You no longer feel any affinity with people who are not fellow cult members. You donโ€™t laugh at things that other people find funny. Your sense of humor is at best distorted and at worst nonexistent."

And you don't consider the merits of facts and logic; in fact, you ignore facts and logic that don't fit the cult's way of thinking.

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I went to an alumni Zoom session on Crypto several months to get additional information on crypto. It was very disappointing. The presenters were crypto enthusiasts who were dismissive of some of the questions, basically saying: "you're stupid if you don't understand how this works." Crypto may not be a cult, but many crypto proponents strike me as scammers.

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"You no longer feel any affinity with people who are not fellow cult members.

You donโ€™t laugh at things that other people find funny. Your sense of humor is at best distorted and at worst nonexistent."

The first is explicitly an anti-Christian vice and not a signal virtue of nay other religion that I am familiar with.

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Jun 24, 2022ยทedited Jun 24, 2022

What worries me is that there doesn't seem to be high returns to distinguishing the better and worse positioned firms if an everything bubble bursts.

I remember from the global financial crisis that the distress of General Motors and Chrysler wasn't directly present in Ford. Ford had secured more expensive and stable long term financing before the crisis. However, because Ford's suppliers hadn't, and those suppliers were often shared with the other auto makers, Ford was very vulnerable to the failure of the other automakers resulting in supply chain and financial distress to Ford.

If you tried to sort the better from worse firms, you might have found Ford. But I'm not sure it would have helped.

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I had only one contact with Amway- my cousin, who was about 4-5 years older than me pitched me to join when I was 19 years old. I was, at that age, far too lazy to find the idea interesting in any way, and even told him it sounded like a Ponzi Scheme to me (though not using those words). I don't know how my cousin's experience turned out- I haven't talked to him since that day, and I don't know if it had anything to do with me gently ridiculing the venture. He is still alive, and if I ever see him again, I will ask him about it.

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There's always been an "everything bubble", also known as "the thin veneer of civilization". Historically, war been the thing that pops the "everything bubble". Today, however, we can imagine that bubble popping worldwide, thanks to technology and the hive mind.

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As for web3, Marc Andreesen seems 100% behind it and is looking for startups to pour money into. Then you have the Swaan Phenomenon: https://www.swanbitcoin.com/ They seem like the truly true believers. But they are Bitcoin first, web3 second. And then there is Saylor, who you have mentioned as an omen. He gives podcasts that go on longer than Castro speeches.

Thing is, there is a lot of real knowledge here. At the same time, there is the recurring reference to devotion to Bitcoin NO MATTER WHAT. And they use crypto as a curse word and are quick to point out the pyramid schemes and the "rug pulls" of crypto scammers. Also, they link to diet and health and a hatred of "Fiat" anything. Not only Fiat money, but also Fiat food. And the software engineers are not fake; they know their stuff. Maybe its more a Jordon Peterson affiliate group than a cult..

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