I wonder if this isn't a feature of 'older' but rather 'declining'? Of course, to be in decline something can't be new, but it isn't a necessary feature of aging.
As a group activity declines, only the most committed members of that group remain. When political causes become less popular, they also tend to become more extreme because the extremists are most likely to stay. This also reinforces the decline because extremists are off-putting to most people, the same way trying to get into model building or bridge when everyone's an expert is off-putting to most people.
Lego (a great activity for an 8.5 year old) is old, and it has definitely cultivated a group of super-intense, expert builders. But Lego is also growing in popularity (or remaining popular), so it's still easy to join. I would also posit that it's easier to become an expert, because of this--it's easier to climb a pyramid than to scale an upside-down pyramid. (In this case, the breadth of the base is the opportunity for novices to engage).
Reading, an old hobby, hasn't followed this narrowing; kids literature is as great as it ever has been, if not better. Comic books, though, have--read an issue of Fantastic Four from 1962 and you'll see the effort the writers put in to make the comics accessible. Read an issue from 2012 and you'll find yourself hip-deep in a convoluted narrative that references a bajillion things. Kid lit is expanding or holding steady, comic books are nowhere near their peak in popularity and cater to their existing base.
To continue to write an unnecessarily long comment, look at trading card games. You can find a committed playbase for just about any game ever released, whether it's still being printed or not. But Magic: the Gathering, the oldest of these, still makes an effort to grow, often by doing things that piss off the existing fan base in favor of bringing in new eyes. Because of that, it's easier to learn and get good at Magic (or Pokemon) than it is, say, Star Wars: CCG or Legend of the 5-Rings, which are newer but with no good entry point.
A suggestion for you and your grandson - have you thought of joining a local Dungeons and Dragons game? For almost ten years some friends of mine and I ran a father/son weekly game. It's probably asking a lot for you to familiarize yourself with the rules on short notice well enough to RUN a game, but if you can find a local Dungeon Master willing to help out you and your grandson can learn enough to participate in a game in about 30 minutes
This pattern reminds me of what happened to jazz music from the 40s to the 60s. From accessible dance music for the masses to something very different aimed at only the most diligent listener.
I just took a look, and plastic models look to be completely unchanged from when I was a kid in the 80s. They are still available for a variety of skill levels. In the internet age the *selection* available at your local brick-and-mortar store is probably worse, but you can order the simple kits online rather easily.
On Claude's affirmation of your observation: the current crop of LLMs will bend over backwards to agree with you, confirm your biases, and stroke your ego. Of course it agreed with you.
Just last week in my "20th Century Project" (looking for the great games of the 20th century) I ask why Bridge is dying, and I think I dance around this issue but this puts it quite succinctly. https://20thcenturygames.substack.com/p/bridge
Arnold mentioned boardgames so I thought I'd chime in. While I am not prepared to comment on the general applicability on this "theorem", in boardgaming, the hobby has become both deeper and more esoteric for the dedicated hobbyists AND simultaneously offer a much more interesting and engaging set of games for new players. When I was a child growing up in the 1970s, boardgames for casual players consisted of stuff like Monopoly, Careers, Parchessi, Life, mostly roll dice and move, with little to no strategy involved. Today, a newbie can jump right into engaging games like Ticket to Ride, Settlers of Catan, Carcassone, that are frankly, an order of magnitude better games than what I played as a kid. At the other end of the hobby, it exactly parallels what Arnold describes for model building so I won't bother to elaborate.
Just to speculate as to why, at least in boardgaming, the key to being outrageously successful financially is to appeal to the mass market via the games I mentioned above. It is rare and probably happens once every 5 years or so, but it is possible, so designers keep at it. (Presumably something along these lines is simply impossible for models .....) More complex games that target serious hobbyists will rarely sell more than 50K copies. You can make a living at it, but it's a grind and you will never get rich.
The YouTube algorithm recently served me a channel covering world champion Axis & Allies players, their gambits, and strategies. Like chess, stratagems have actual titles (like "shuck-shuck" or "Germany First") that can be employed. As an extension of e-sports, I don't know how many make a living at this kind of work turning competitive board games into tourneys but it's not zero. To think, within a hundred years, jobs moved from agriculture to manufacturing then information to this kind of work!
It surprises me that, given the larger population, there are not model plane makers and dancing groups that don't cater to beginners. For other forms of dancing, at least there are studios where you can go to learn. I suppose, if you can find one or two people at a starting level, you could watch YouTube videos together and practice. Not the same thing, but something.
I’ve seen many hobbies with an explosion in materials / courses for beginners. Chess, guitar, woodworking come to mind.
On the other hand this article on model trains is consistent with the narrow /deep hypothesis : https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/luxury-homes/a-hobbyists-death-starts-a-race-to-save-a-railroad-05cb6264
Perhaps there’s a certain critical mass needed and below that, any hobby becomes narrow, deep etc.
Airfix make a Quickbuild range designed for kids as a bridge between lego style brick building and the complex kits you describe. Not sure if you can get Airfix in the US though. https://uk.airfix.com/shop/quick-build/quickbuild-range?langPath=airfix-uk&filters%5Bin_stock%5D=true&filters%5Bmandatory_filter_by%5D%5Bproduct_group%5D=Airfix%20Quickbuild%20Range&page_id=140100&sort-by=8&page=1
Old man yells at cloud
I wonder if this isn't a feature of 'older' but rather 'declining'? Of course, to be in decline something can't be new, but it isn't a necessary feature of aging.
As a group activity declines, only the most committed members of that group remain. When political causes become less popular, they also tend to become more extreme because the extremists are most likely to stay. This also reinforces the decline because extremists are off-putting to most people, the same way trying to get into model building or bridge when everyone's an expert is off-putting to most people.
Lego (a great activity for an 8.5 year old) is old, and it has definitely cultivated a group of super-intense, expert builders. But Lego is also growing in popularity (or remaining popular), so it's still easy to join. I would also posit that it's easier to become an expert, because of this--it's easier to climb a pyramid than to scale an upside-down pyramid. (In this case, the breadth of the base is the opportunity for novices to engage).
Reading, an old hobby, hasn't followed this narrowing; kids literature is as great as it ever has been, if not better. Comic books, though, have--read an issue of Fantastic Four from 1962 and you'll see the effort the writers put in to make the comics accessible. Read an issue from 2012 and you'll find yourself hip-deep in a convoluted narrative that references a bajillion things. Kid lit is expanding or holding steady, comic books are nowhere near their peak in popularity and cater to their existing base.
To continue to write an unnecessarily long comment, look at trading card games. You can find a committed playbase for just about any game ever released, whether it's still being printed or not. But Magic: the Gathering, the oldest of these, still makes an effort to grow, often by doing things that piss off the existing fan base in favor of bringing in new eyes. Because of that, it's easier to learn and get good at Magic (or Pokemon) than it is, say, Star Wars: CCG or Legend of the 5-Rings, which are newer but with no good entry point.
A suggestion for you and your grandson - have you thought of joining a local Dungeons and Dragons game? For almost ten years some friends of mine and I ran a father/son weekly game. It's probably asking a lot for you to familiarize yourself with the rules on short notice well enough to RUN a game, but if you can find a local Dungeon Master willing to help out you and your grandson can learn enough to participate in a game in about 30 minutes
Picture puzzles are still available in graded ranges of difficulty.
And not indoors? Dressed warmly wandering inRock Creek park?
Science museums?
I have definitely observed this phenomenon with magic the gathering
Electronics kits, like Snap Circuits? Big improvement over the Radio Shack kits that required soldering.
This pattern reminds me of what happened to jazz music from the 40s to the 60s. From accessible dance music for the masses to something very different aimed at only the most diligent listener.
I just took a look, and plastic models look to be completely unchanged from when I was a kid in the 80s. They are still available for a variety of skill levels. In the internet age the *selection* available at your local brick-and-mortar store is probably worse, but you can order the simple kits online rather easily.
https://revell.de/en/revell-level-system
On Claude's affirmation of your observation: the current crop of LLMs will bend over backwards to agree with you, confirm your biases, and stroke your ego. Of course it agreed with you.
Just last week in my "20th Century Project" (looking for the great games of the 20th century) I ask why Bridge is dying, and I think I dance around this issue but this puts it quite succinctly. https://20thcenturygames.substack.com/p/bridge
Arnold mentioned boardgames so I thought I'd chime in. While I am not prepared to comment on the general applicability on this "theorem", in boardgaming, the hobby has become both deeper and more esoteric for the dedicated hobbyists AND simultaneously offer a much more interesting and engaging set of games for new players. When I was a child growing up in the 1970s, boardgames for casual players consisted of stuff like Monopoly, Careers, Parchessi, Life, mostly roll dice and move, with little to no strategy involved. Today, a newbie can jump right into engaging games like Ticket to Ride, Settlers of Catan, Carcassone, that are frankly, an order of magnitude better games than what I played as a kid. At the other end of the hobby, it exactly parallels what Arnold describes for model building so I won't bother to elaborate.
Just to speculate as to why, at least in boardgaming, the key to being outrageously successful financially is to appeal to the mass market via the games I mentioned above. It is rare and probably happens once every 5 years or so, but it is possible, so designers keep at it. (Presumably something along these lines is simply impossible for models .....) More complex games that target serious hobbyists will rarely sell more than 50K copies. You can make a living at it, but it's a grind and you will never get rich.
The YouTube algorithm recently served me a channel covering world champion Axis & Allies players, their gambits, and strategies. Like chess, stratagems have actual titles (like "shuck-shuck" or "Germany First") that can be employed. As an extension of e-sports, I don't know how many make a living at this kind of work turning competitive board games into tourneys but it's not zero. To think, within a hundred years, jobs moved from agriculture to manufacturing then information to this kind of work!
It surprises me that, given the larger population, there are not model plane makers and dancing groups that don't cater to beginners. For other forms of dancing, at least there are studios where you can go to learn. I suppose, if you can find one or two people at a starting level, you could watch YouTube videos together and practice. Not the same thing, but something.
depending on how nerdy your grandson is maybe it's time to buy a 3d printer
My nephew loved remote control cars at that age. Buy two and race him in an empty parking lot somewhere (assuming it's not too cold).
Playmobil sets are something you can build on and Lego.