Having been one of the ultra-citified myself, I can tell you that these people would have others sacrifice simple comforts of life because they themselves sacrificed so many. To live in the heart of Manhattan, I had to sacrifice 1. great gobs of income to pay for a co-op; 2. personal space and privacy; 3. ease of travel; 4. living space; 5. intimacy with nature; the company of old people; 6. the company of children; 5. the company of people with ordinary middle-class values; 6. peace and quiet; 7. easy access to the abundant consumerism enjoyed by the average suburban resident, rich or poor; 8. a yard with trees; 9. large kitchens and dining rooms; 10. space for all one's books; 11. easy and relatively cheap automobile ownership; 12. distance from the mentally ill homeless, street and subway psychos, etc.; 13. easy access to repair people and handymen; 14. clean air; 15. policemen who actually do police things ... and so on. (Of course, this was in the 1970s and 80s.)
In return, I got all the well-known career, culture and mate-selection advantages one gets in a big city. But looking back on it, even living as a well-to-do person in a big northern city is an exercise in asceticism, and I can see these ultra-citified people thinking, "If I have to suffer, you can suffer, too."
Total Number of zip codes/zip codes with greater than 10,000 people per sq. mi.
New York State: 1776/198
California: 1766/160
Texas: 1933/18
Florida: 992/12
United States: 41,683/714
Texas and Florida are not currently in immediate danger of becoming California and NY based on these metrics and half of all zip codes at this cut off in the entire US are in California and New York State. Data from google and a website that was number one or two in google results zipatlas.com
Even if the "elite" cohort is too narrowly defined, small unrepresentative cohorts of the politically hyperactive with extreme views have in the past wreaked great havoc when they succeeded in implementing those views, as in the National Socialist takeover in Germany in1933, and the Bolshevik revolution in Russia in 1917. The ideas of Arnold's "ultra-citified" may seem absurd, but what they have in common is the urge to forcibly control others in pursuit of their utopian vision, a project which has always resulted in disasters.
So I commented on this survey about a week ago, on this blog. I suspect it may suffer from sampling bias. Specifically, from how the outreach was conducted, I can see how the response rate would likely be very low, with perhaps a lopsided mix of left vs. right leaning folks responding.
People who live in densely populated areas are more likely than those who live in, say, New Mexico, Montana, or West Texas, to listen to doomsayers like Paul Erlich who warn of population "bombs" and imminent resource depletion. And they are far less likely to heed resource optimists like Julian Simon. Additionally, because local governments significantly impact their daily lives, people in cities are more inclined to believe that government intervention is necessary to address real and perceived population and resource issues. The government's visible hand is far more tangible than is the market's invisible one.
"The ultra-citified also alienate much of Belmont."
"Much" is doing a lot of work.
Ilhan Omar has represented MN 5 since 2018. Before that, Keith Ellison (current MN AG) represent the district for over a decade. Both were elected and re-elected with between 55% and 70% of votes cast.
Minnesota's 5th congressional district is a geographically small urban and suburban congressional district in Minnesota. It covers eastern Hennepin County, including the entire city of Minneapolis, along with parts of Anoka and Ramsey counties. (Wikipedia)
Area: 124 sq mi (320 km2)
Distribution: : 100% urban; 0% rural;
Cook PVI: D+30
Ethnicity: 63.6% White; 16.6% Black; 8.8% Hispanic; 6.0% Asian; 3.8% Two or more races; 1.2% other
Median household income: $71,636 (about 2/3 of the income limit)
Population (2021): 708,012 (around 5700 people per square mile, about half of the criteria above)
AOC has represented NY 14 since 2018.
New York's 14th congressional district is a congressional district for the United States House of Representatives located in New York City, represented by Democrat Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. The district includes the eastern part of The Bronx and part of north-central Queens. (Wikipedia)
Ethnicity: 47.3% Hispanic; 22.8% White; 16.9% Asian; 11.0% Black; 1.4% Two or more races; 0.6% other
Median household income: $66,749 (again, around 2/3 of the criteria)
Cook PVI: D+25
Population (2019): 696,664 (I can't find an area but this probably meets the 10K/sq mile based on other information about New York)
The real Belmont in Massachusetts hasn't elected a Republican to Congress in almost two decades.
The poll certainly seems to support the problem of “luxury beliefs” that Rob Henderson is becoming known for—and his book just came out. He has examples on his stack.
Yale students are on the top 1% elite track, tho few are already there. Their luxury beliefs are part of their status competition, and status signaling, so as to achieve higher status, even if unfairly earned.
Most normal middle folk, 20-80% of income or wealth or cultural influence, might think those in the upper quintile are elite, maybe broad elite Belmont, yet a majority of those there feel they’re not elite (yet?) but deserve to be, and are striving towards that, including the peacock costly signals of superiority.
Who are the elite on morals? What is right and wrong? Moral superiority is the usual goal, usually unspoken. Tho a recent headline read something like “We have no moral right to deny immigrants entrance to our country.” A pretty powerful luxury belief because of moral superiority.
The ultra-citified are top elite wannabes competing for status, especially among their many, many, densely packed sardine similar peers, with moral superiority a goal.
This seems reasonable to me, given that in a lot of the zip codes that exceed the population density threshold, household income of 150k+ probably isn't much better than average due to the cost of living.
That said, I think since these people can present themselves and their beliefs as pro-social and opposing beliefs as anti-social, they are able to attain status and that status attracts others. Their concentrated local influence means they're able to reward cooperators and punish defectors pretty effectively, also.
Why should "post-graduate education" be a necessary criterion of elite status? I would replace this criterion with criteria of success in the marketplace; e.g., chief officers of firms of a certain size, founders of new firms of a certain size, directors of major regulatory agencies, lawmakers, judges, and so on.
I don't see the connection between having a Master's Degree and entree to elite status.
It's a somewhat semantic distinction. I think ultra-citified and the definition of elite that is used is roughly equivalent to what people not in that category would classify as elite. It doesn't mean millionaire per-se and it doesn't mean ultra rich. It means the critical mass of politically active people that have the right jobs, the adequate numbers, and the ambition and drive to have a huge impact in politics.
Society and law reflects the values of these people, much more so than a Mark Zuckerberg.
People who think power is about money or those that think in terms of mass politics ignore the group that sits between those two extremes and in many ways have the strengths of both: Mass, cohesion, and resources.
The density requirement *might* be too high and the income requirement might be too low though.
Interesting and insightful piece up until the last paragraph. I'm not saying those two opinions are for certain wrong but they are in no way supported by the piece. Only tangentially related.
Having been one of the ultra-citified myself, I can tell you that these people would have others sacrifice simple comforts of life because they themselves sacrificed so many. To live in the heart of Manhattan, I had to sacrifice 1. great gobs of income to pay for a co-op; 2. personal space and privacy; 3. ease of travel; 4. living space; 5. intimacy with nature; the company of old people; 6. the company of children; 5. the company of people with ordinary middle-class values; 6. peace and quiet; 7. easy access to the abundant consumerism enjoyed by the average suburban resident, rich or poor; 8. a yard with trees; 9. large kitchens and dining rooms; 10. space for all one's books; 11. easy and relatively cheap automobile ownership; 12. distance from the mentally ill homeless, street and subway psychos, etc.; 13. easy access to repair people and handymen; 14. clean air; 15. policemen who actually do police things ... and so on. (Of course, this was in the 1970s and 80s.)
In return, I got all the well-known career, culture and mate-selection advantages one gets in a big city. But looking back on it, even living as a well-to-do person in a big northern city is an exercise in asceticism, and I can see these ultra-citified people thinking, "If I have to suffer, you can suffer, too."
Total Number of zip codes/zip codes with greater than 10,000 people per sq. mi.
New York State: 1776/198
California: 1766/160
Texas: 1933/18
Florida: 992/12
United States: 41,683/714
Texas and Florida are not currently in immediate danger of becoming California and NY based on these metrics and half of all zip codes at this cut off in the entire US are in California and New York State. Data from google and a website that was number one or two in google results zipatlas.com
Even if the "elite" cohort is too narrowly defined, small unrepresentative cohorts of the politically hyperactive with extreme views have in the past wreaked great havoc when they succeeded in implementing those views, as in the National Socialist takeover in Germany in1933, and the Bolshevik revolution in Russia in 1917. The ideas of Arnold's "ultra-citified" may seem absurd, but what they have in common is the urge to forcibly control others in pursuit of their utopian vision, a project which has always resulted in disasters.
So I commented on this survey about a week ago, on this blog. I suspect it may suffer from sampling bias. Specifically, from how the outreach was conducted, I can see how the response rate would likely be very low, with perhaps a lopsided mix of left vs. right leaning folks responding.
Oh opinion surveys! Here's a survey question: "Q... Are you the kind of person who responds to opinion surveys?"
People who live in densely populated areas are more likely than those who live in, say, New Mexico, Montana, or West Texas, to listen to doomsayers like Paul Erlich who warn of population "bombs" and imminent resource depletion. And they are far less likely to heed resource optimists like Julian Simon. Additionally, because local governments significantly impact their daily lives, people in cities are more inclined to believe that government intervention is necessary to address real and perceived population and resource issues. The government's visible hand is far more tangible than is the market's invisible one.
Or, perhaps even better, the people who live within 20 miles of Washington D.C.
"The ultra-citified also alienate much of Belmont."
"Much" is doing a lot of work.
Ilhan Omar has represented MN 5 since 2018. Before that, Keith Ellison (current MN AG) represent the district for over a decade. Both were elected and re-elected with between 55% and 70% of votes cast.
Minnesota's 5th congressional district is a geographically small urban and suburban congressional district in Minnesota. It covers eastern Hennepin County, including the entire city of Minneapolis, along with parts of Anoka and Ramsey counties. (Wikipedia)
Area: 124 sq mi (320 km2)
Distribution: : 100% urban; 0% rural;
Cook PVI: D+30
Ethnicity: 63.6% White; 16.6% Black; 8.8% Hispanic; 6.0% Asian; 3.8% Two or more races; 1.2% other
Median household income: $71,636 (about 2/3 of the income limit)
Population (2021): 708,012 (around 5700 people per square mile, about half of the criteria above)
AOC has represented NY 14 since 2018.
New York's 14th congressional district is a congressional district for the United States House of Representatives located in New York City, represented by Democrat Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. The district includes the eastern part of The Bronx and part of north-central Queens. (Wikipedia)
Ethnicity: 47.3% Hispanic; 22.8% White; 16.9% Asian; 11.0% Black; 1.4% Two or more races; 0.6% other
Median household income: $66,749 (again, around 2/3 of the criteria)
Cook PVI: D+25
Population (2019): 696,664 (I can't find an area but this probably meets the 10K/sq mile based on other information about New York)
The real Belmont in Massachusetts hasn't elected a Republican to Congress in almost two decades.
The poll certainly seems to support the problem of “luxury beliefs” that Rob Henderson is becoming known for—and his book just came out. He has examples on his stack.
https://www.robkhenderson.com/p/what-shocked-me-about-the-culture
Yale students are on the top 1% elite track, tho few are already there. Their luxury beliefs are part of their status competition, and status signaling, so as to achieve higher status, even if unfairly earned.
Most normal middle folk, 20-80% of income or wealth or cultural influence, might think those in the upper quintile are elite, maybe broad elite Belmont, yet a majority of those there feel they’re not elite (yet?) but deserve to be, and are striving towards that, including the peacock costly signals of superiority.
Who are the elite on morals? What is right and wrong? Moral superiority is the usual goal, usually unspoken. Tho a recent headline read something like “We have no moral right to deny immigrants entrance to our country.” A pretty powerful luxury belief because of moral superiority.
The ultra-citified are top elite wannabes competing for status, especially among their many, many, densely packed sardine similar peers, with moral superiority a goal.
This seems reasonable to me, given that in a lot of the zip codes that exceed the population density threshold, household income of 150k+ probably isn't much better than average due to the cost of living.
That said, I think since these people can present themselves and their beliefs as pro-social and opposing beliefs as anti-social, they are able to attain status and that status attracts others. Their concentrated local influence means they're able to reward cooperators and punish defectors pretty effectively, also.
The poll should have simply polled journalists and lawyers.
Why should "post-graduate education" be a necessary criterion of elite status? I would replace this criterion with criteria of success in the marketplace; e.g., chief officers of firms of a certain size, founders of new firms of a certain size, directors of major regulatory agencies, lawmakers, judges, and so on.
I don't see the connection between having a Master's Degree and entree to elite status.
Very good critique. My hypothesis is you would have found something similar throughout the decades/centuries with beliefs like communism, etc.
It's a somewhat semantic distinction. I think ultra-citified and the definition of elite that is used is roughly equivalent to what people not in that category would classify as elite. It doesn't mean millionaire per-se and it doesn't mean ultra rich. It means the critical mass of politically active people that have the right jobs, the adequate numbers, and the ambition and drive to have a huge impact in politics.
Society and law reflects the values of these people, much more so than a Mark Zuckerberg.
People who think power is about money or those that think in terms of mass politics ignore the group that sits between those two extremes and in many ways have the strengths of both: Mass, cohesion, and resources.
The density requirement *might* be too high and the income requirement might be too low though.
I live in a semi-rural suburb and enjoy the space and convenience. It is a kind of utopia.
Interesting and insightful piece up until the last paragraph. I'm not saying those two opinions are for certain wrong but they are in no way supported by the piece. Only tangentially related.