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forumposter123@protonmail.com's avatar

A problem I have with dismissing Asymmetric Insight is that its a very anti-market concept so to speak.

I'm a strategist for my company. My entire goal, every day, is to figure out things I don't think my competition has figured out so that we can gain an advantage over them. Either I or my competitors will be right about the reality of the market place, and the actions we take will or won't succeed at our basically shared goals (make more NPV profit).

When I was in college I was a professional poker player and quite successful. The entire concept of being a long run successful poker player is that you have asymmetric insight over your competition. And it would make you successful to understand things like "my opponent is on a tilt and thinking emotionally."

A world were Asymmetric Insight didn't exist is like a world in which every single aspect of life were subject to Strong Efficient Market Hypothesis. I don't think that's true, the very concept of entrepreneurship rejects it.

If you'll allow a recent example, I gave ChatGPT a question about my industry, and it regurgitated what it always seems regurgitate, a shallow "maybe this, maybe that" mushy middle on the issue without much insight. ChatGPT doesn't claim to have any asymmetric insight, but the top search returns on Google are full of people taking sides on the issue. And firms in my industry make big decisions based on their view of the issue. Somebody is going to be right and somebody is going to be wrong.

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Changing minds is a process that involves other people coming to trust your side more than the other side. You don’t get that process going by dismissing them with asymmetric insights.

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You're probably right that pointing out Asymmetric Insight may not be an effective way to change minds, and that is a useful observation. But that isn't the same as it not existing. Perhaps the other person isn't rational, but the best way to talk them out of it is more indirect.

Still, I can see instances where blunt Asymmetric Insight is needed. At a strategy meeting last year we were all set to do something incredibly dumb and costly for the third year in a row, until I went into the room of the hold up advocating it and cursed him out, pointing how idiotic it was. By noon that day he had changed his mind and ascended to the change in strategy. My colleagues were all thrilled and I got a big raise.

I think there is a big difference between something that is no skin in the game (politics) versus something that is skin in the game (business). When there is some impactful action to be taken by you in the hear and now, its sometimes justified to think the other side is just wrong. The market will bless or curse your judgement later.

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Dallas E Weaver's avatar

One important thing happened, life and age. I observed the king of the world (IBM) of my youth evolve into a slow bureaucratic institution that took 7 years to do a new design end up failing in a world where CPU's doubled in cost/performance in 2 years. I have watched the FDA evolve from protecting us from thalidomide to blowing approval of Covid-19 testing. I have watched the CDC evolve into telling us that the N-95 masks designed and specified by their sister agency OSHA don't protect the mask user like they were designed to do, but do protect the "other guy" who they aren't designed to protect.

The market based systems have mechanisms for punishing evolutionary incompetence and the central governments don't. It is bankruptcy that prevents the evolutionary decay of institutions.

There is no real difference between government institution evolution and what we see in private monopoly institutions (thinking of US steel and the steel workers union). It is the possibility of real failure keeps Nordstrom's making my wife happy, even during real downturns. They don't complain about "lack of resources" like government monopolies do.

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