As always, there was a lot to think about in today's post, but for me, this was the main takeaway: "The safest jobs are those protected by regulation." I believe this prediction is correct and worthy of its own post.
“I have a hard time figuring out which new tools to use, and I feel like I am way behind the frontier in terms of applying AI.” Fascinating comment. I’m curious what problems you’re trying to solve with AI other than the Grader and Mentor. I’m not sure what you’re up to, but I’m curious if you’re keeping track of your progress in a way that would inform you of which direction to take? It’s possible that no off-the-shelf tools will satisfy you, correct? In this case you might consider building your own tool. How difficult would this be?
I’m not sure that anyone cares, but I have relatively little interest in AI compared to Arnold. It’s interesting how some people are interested in certain technologies and others are not. In my case, I suppose this lack of interest is because I have no big nagging problem that I see AI solving. This is probably because I’m so ignorant of the technology. In fact, I might be more of an anti-AI guy in that I like to do non-routine things myself. Sure, I could use an AI lawnmower, but that takes work away from my kids. Sure, I would like to have a driverless car, if it were the same price as a regular car. The robotic vacuum we own is nice, but still sort of clumsy and slow. It’s really not difficult to vacuum, and when we need to vacuum, like after dinner, we just use the dumb vacuum.
I suppose that if I had an AI clone of Milton Friedman, I could use that to persuade people to read and understand the First Amendment, but Milton wasn’t all that successful at that, and I’m not certain why. I suppose an AI version of Milton could be harnessed to teach millions of children about the First Amendment, but I doubt many kids would be interested. I suppose I could try to create a video game that simultaneously taught about the First and Tenth Amendment. Are there video games that use AI?
Virtually all video games use a simple ai: somewhat modified programmed behavior based on what you do. Usually there are human strategies that that advantage of the limited ai response.
See League of Legends & Dota 2, and how some ai players are getting better than the best humans at firing with super accurate aim and timing.
An earlier Arnold speculation thought that an early good ai application would be as Non Player Characters in some MMORPG.
This is an underappreciated challenge for AI. Normies don't know how to use it.
So far, most AI uses/applications seem like (very exciting!) toy examples and tech demos that are really only exciting for enthusiasts. In order to justify the ongoing hype (and capital spend) in this space, somebody is going to have to figure out a way to make this technology useful for normies.
AI's "diffusion" might end up looking like the "diffusion" of, say, General Relativity 100 years ago. The discovery of General Relativity was very exciting among enthusiasts at the time, but it had to wait for GPS and other applications to come along before it had any effect on normies' lives (by enabling new business models). But even in that case, normies only use the underlying discovery really indirectly. They don't care about space-time curvature or whatever. They just want directions on their phone.
As always, there was a lot to think about in today's post, but for me, this was the main takeaway: "The safest jobs are those protected by regulation." I believe this prediction is correct and worthy of its own post.
“I have a hard time figuring out which new tools to use, and I feel like I am way behind the frontier in terms of applying AI.” Fascinating comment. I’m curious what problems you’re trying to solve with AI other than the Grader and Mentor. I’m not sure what you’re up to, but I’m curious if you’re keeping track of your progress in a way that would inform you of which direction to take? It’s possible that no off-the-shelf tools will satisfy you, correct? In this case you might consider building your own tool. How difficult would this be?
I’m not sure that anyone cares, but I have relatively little interest in AI compared to Arnold. It’s interesting how some people are interested in certain technologies and others are not. In my case, I suppose this lack of interest is because I have no big nagging problem that I see AI solving. This is probably because I’m so ignorant of the technology. In fact, I might be more of an anti-AI guy in that I like to do non-routine things myself. Sure, I could use an AI lawnmower, but that takes work away from my kids. Sure, I would like to have a driverless car, if it were the same price as a regular car. The robotic vacuum we own is nice, but still sort of clumsy and slow. It’s really not difficult to vacuum, and when we need to vacuum, like after dinner, we just use the dumb vacuum.
I suppose that if I had an AI clone of Milton Friedman, I could use that to persuade people to read and understand the First Amendment, but Milton wasn’t all that successful at that, and I’m not certain why. I suppose an AI version of Milton could be harnessed to teach millions of children about the First Amendment, but I doubt many kids would be interested. I suppose I could try to create a video game that simultaneously taught about the First and Tenth Amendment. Are there video games that use AI?
Virtually all video games use a simple ai: somewhat modified programmed behavior based on what you do. Usually there are human strategies that that advantage of the limited ai response.
See League of Legends & Dota 2, and how some ai players are getting better than the best humans at firing with super accurate aim and timing.
An earlier Arnold speculation thought that an early good ai application would be as Non Player Characters in some MMORPG.
This is an underappreciated challenge for AI. Normies don't know how to use it.
So far, most AI uses/applications seem like (very exciting!) toy examples and tech demos that are really only exciting for enthusiasts. In order to justify the ongoing hype (and capital spend) in this space, somebody is going to have to figure out a way to make this technology useful for normies.
AI's "diffusion" might end up looking like the "diffusion" of, say, General Relativity 100 years ago. The discovery of General Relativity was very exciting among enthusiasts at the time, but it had to wait for GPS and other applications to come along before it had any effect on normies' lives (by enabling new business models). But even in that case, normies only use the underlying discovery really indirectly. They don't care about space-time curvature or whatever. They just want directions on their phone.