The IQ story seems crazy and self-refuting. He says IQ decline leads to falling GDP then says that IQ has already fallen a lot… in a period where GDP has grown tremendously.
The plastic bag finding appears to be overhyped. Reuse number required for cotton to beat plastic can be much lower depending on the impact category you use.
One easy to believe mechanism that could be driving a decline in IQ (if its real) would be plain old incentives. The more rewards that are given for not sharpening mental skills and reasoning, and the less punishments that are applied for that failure (no more standardized testing!) - would both seem to lead to lower IQ scores over time.
If in societies that had previously been on the high end of the global “maximizing IQ scale” - a larger than previously segment believes: I can get rewards without intellectual effort, and I’m not punished for failing to achieve something like my highest potential - then global IQ stagnates or falls, yes?
3rd graders spending 20% more time on CRT and 20% less time on math gets us there, yes?
In an earlier post linking to the risks (or lack thereof) of declines in fertilities rates, you had indicated you didn’t think declining fertility in the Western world was a problem. Are you revising your priors based on this latest link?
“to ‘time’ the booster to match plans to visit vulnerable others”
At the height of COVID and the vaccine wars, I recall there also being a rhetorical shift from vaccines were important to protect yourself to vaccines were necessary to protect against transmission to others.
Zvi’s post seems to assume this is still true, but anecdotally I thought this was questionable. Has there been any more careful studies to demonstrate vaccination does meaningfully reduce transmission?
The IQ story seems crazy and self-refuting. He says IQ decline leads to falling GDP then says that IQ has already fallen a lot… in a period where GDP has grown tremendously.
The plastic bag finding appears to be overhyped. Reuse number required for cotton to beat plastic can be much lower depending on the impact category you use.
https://twitter.com/arthurhcyip/status/1115749684851683333?s=12
One easy to believe mechanism that could be driving a decline in IQ (if its real) would be plain old incentives. The more rewards that are given for not sharpening mental skills and reasoning, and the less punishments that are applied for that failure (no more standardized testing!) - would both seem to lead to lower IQ scores over time.
If in societies that had previously been on the high end of the global “maximizing IQ scale” - a larger than previously segment believes: I can get rewards without intellectual effort, and I’m not punished for failing to achieve something like my highest potential - then global IQ stagnates or falls, yes?
3rd graders spending 20% more time on CRT and 20% less time on math gets us there, yes?
Just a hypothesis…
“ Have a nice day.”
In an earlier post linking to the risks (or lack thereof) of declines in fertilities rates, you had indicated you didn’t think declining fertility in the Western world was a problem. Are you revising your priors based on this latest link?
“to ‘time’ the booster to match plans to visit vulnerable others”
At the height of COVID and the vaccine wars, I recall there also being a rhetorical shift from vaccines were important to protect yourself to vaccines were necessary to protect against transmission to others.
Zvi’s post seems to assume this is still true, but anecdotally I thought this was questionable. Has there been any more careful studies to demonstrate vaccination does meaningfully reduce transmission?