"that there isn't a battery for a normal sized sedan that has the range of an ICE version of the same car,”
I don't know about same model but the longest range EVs (all Teslas) are pretty close to typical ICE vehicles. Note that there are very few ice and ev same model. I'd bet they get closer (both improving) but whether they become equa…
"that there isn't a battery for a normal sized sedan that has the range of an ICE version of the same car,”
I don't know about same model but the longest range EVs (all Teslas) are pretty close to typical ICE vehicles. Note that there are very few ice and ev same model. I'd bet they get closer (both improving) but whether they become equal by 2030 is almost entirely a marketing question. A bet on this would miss the issues of concern.
“that there isn't a battery marketed for that same car that is charged in the time it takes fill a gas tank by 2030.”
It sounds like the odds of being close are high but I'd also bet against EVs charging faster than a fill-up. Either way, getting close (less than say 20 minutes) would be a phenomenal improvement.
“Additionally, the batteries will still be lithium ion batteries.”
Almost certainly. No bet.
I would even go so far as to predict the comparable prices for the two version of the same make and model will price the EV higher by at least 10% in 2030,”
I agree it will most likely be something like that. No bet.
and that the costs of fuel will actually favor the ICE version by 2030”
Oops. Fuel for EVs (grid price, not charging station) is currently lower. Happy to bet you that isn't going to reverse.
Charging station price is a major part of what matters, Stu, since we are talking about overall cost of charging. Electrical price increases are outstripping gasoline already and if you take seriously the WSJ article, that will only get worse as we try to move to even just 30% of the miles traveled to EV transport.
As for range- none of the Teslas actually come close today when you test under ordinary driving conditions. The quoted ranges for the Teslas are under the most ideal driving conditions- there is far more variance in actual performance for the EVs than there is for an ICE vehicles, and the EVs always perform worse than claimed.
"Charging station price is a major part of what matters, Stu, since we are talking about overall cost of charging.“
No. The vast majority of passenger vehicle miles can be driven on a single charge and overnight recharge.
ICE range is worse than advertised too. Yes, EV range varies more than ICE.
A guess on future electric prices has more uncertainty than EV range. Regardless, I don't see 30% of miles traveled being electric happening anywhere near 2030.
"that there isn't a battery for a normal sized sedan that has the range of an ICE version of the same car,”
I don't know about same model but the longest range EVs (all Teslas) are pretty close to typical ICE vehicles. Note that there are very few ice and ev same model. I'd bet they get closer (both improving) but whether they become equal by 2030 is almost entirely a marketing question. A bet on this would miss the issues of concern.
“that there isn't a battery marketed for that same car that is charged in the time it takes fill a gas tank by 2030.”
It sounds like the odds of being close are high but I'd also bet against EVs charging faster than a fill-up. Either way, getting close (less than say 20 minutes) would be a phenomenal improvement.
“Additionally, the batteries will still be lithium ion batteries.”
Almost certainly. No bet.
I would even go so far as to predict the comparable prices for the two version of the same make and model will price the EV higher by at least 10% in 2030,”
I agree it will most likely be something like that. No bet.
and that the costs of fuel will actually favor the ICE version by 2030”
Oops. Fuel for EVs (grid price, not charging station) is currently lower. Happy to bet you that isn't going to reverse.
https://www.nrdc.org/stories/electric-vs-gas-cars-it-cheaper-drive-ev#:~:text=A%202020%20Consumer%20Reports%20study,drivers%20of%20gas%2Dpowered%20cars.
Charging station price is a major part of what matters, Stu, since we are talking about overall cost of charging. Electrical price increases are outstripping gasoline already and if you take seriously the WSJ article, that will only get worse as we try to move to even just 30% of the miles traveled to EV transport.
As for range- none of the Teslas actually come close today when you test under ordinary driving conditions. The quoted ranges for the Teslas are under the most ideal driving conditions- there is far more variance in actual performance for the EVs than there is for an ICE vehicles, and the EVs always perform worse than claimed.
"Charging station price is a major part of what matters, Stu, since we are talking about overall cost of charging.“
No. The vast majority of passenger vehicle miles can be driven on a single charge and overnight recharge.
ICE range is worse than advertised too. Yes, EV range varies more than ICE.
A guess on future electric prices has more uncertainty than EV range. Regardless, I don't see 30% of miles traveled being electric happening anywhere near 2030.