16 Comments

Thanks, Prof Kling! These were all fascinating (tho I read Nic regularly)

1. Re Nic on Canada. Sorry, the Canada Deep Staters are not going to read Gurri's book, and their fear will drive them in increasingly authoritarian directions, including stifling speech, until something (e.g. the economy) breaks. Then what happens? I have no idea.

2. Re Moses on National Nursing Home. Lacks historical perspective. I'm old enough to have cut my finance teeth when Prime was 20%, so to call current interest rates high is laughable. On the other hand, he's right about finance bros & ZIRP. ZIRP was a huge historical interest rate aberration that I hope will not be repeated (although it's so tempting for Government & Business to do so that I fear it will).

3. Clinton brings a much-needed historical perspective (if laden with too much front-end theorizing before he gets to the meat, although I was amused to see Behaviorism described as an "obscure psychological theory"--how the mighty have fallen). Also good to see someone cite McLuhan again! I lived through the '80s & '90s in the avant-garde cyber movement in Berkeley (via Mondo 2000, which he doesn't mention), so all the '90s references make perfect sense to me. That they are ignored is part of the larger problem of presentism that plagues our era.

4. This applies to the whole Haidt mobile phone discussion. Back in the '90s, the paranoid, helicopter, over-scheduled parenting style was already becoming the norm across the educated classes. Peter Gray https://substack.com/@petergray takes a wider view, that it's not just the phones but the decline of free play for children (I was lucky to grow up under free play) from the '50s through today. No point in taking away kid's phones just to subject them to more parental control & scheduling! Kids cannot learn freedom unless you let them be free & that seems to be anathema for most parents.

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I'm reminded of when as free-play kids who knew every inch of our territory like cats - a dirty magazine was discovered in a vacant lot one street over. I don't remember which magazine it was, or looking at it very closely - it may have interested the boys more. I do remember we all made a pilgrimage to the vacant lot to see this alien item dropped into our world, and there was some discussion about "what to do about it". I recall nothing further of the episode, but in some way it seems to me a total inversion of the current mode of childrearing. Let them loose in an online world, full of much that is fun, obviously, but much that is nasty.

The days that were our norm, out of doors, are now the abnormal ones.

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Funny, had a nearly identical incident in our neighborhood as a kid, except the "item" was under a bridge. As to the outside vs online, I can't remember where I saw this recently but it was described as we used to be externally focused but have shifted to internal focus. Unhealthy of course.

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I love Moses Sternstein. He's spot on.

One reason people don't like the economy is its jobs people don't like doing (butt wiping), provided to people who don't like receiving the service (sick old people), being done by people who maybe aren't even citizens.

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I wonder if the “winner” of the November election is just going to wind up presiding over the chickens coming home to roost.

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And the next election, and the next election after that, and the next election after that.

It's not like SS and Medicare are about to get any easier to deal with in 2028.

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founding

My son is 15, he has never had his own phone. He has a school provided laptop for classwork and access to a communal desktop at home for homework. He plays 2 sports and is a nearly straight A student (B+ in. Algebra). While I think our low digital approach will prove to be correct in the long run, I have some doubts. He is on the outside socially - his classmates' social lives are digitally mediated. It is difficult for him to make plans for engagement out of school. He does have a virtual phone number which he can access on the desktop, and he has a fairly robust "text life," but we do not allow snapchat or video games.

It is a struggle with my own doubts as much as it is with him asking for looser strictures.

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I'm happy about Haidt's new book, and like Ignatov (not mentioned in the link subhead), I'm very happy to have him spearhead a social change to get kids off of their screens.

But the focus on interior, like introvert nerds, over the extraverted exterior, oriented was developing before the smartphone, and was a huge draw of the personal computer (I was never happy that IBM copyrighted the generic PC term; not just because I had a C-64).

Another significant issue was racism -- in 2008, the USA elected the Black American, Barack Obama, as President. Which was supposed to end racism. But it seemed to make it worse, especially among the elite and with their unfair, but effective, accusations of "racism" against most mental meritocratic institutions and virtually all Republicans..

Similarly, the exclusion and cancelling of almost all conservatives on college campuses, especially Ivy+, seems likely to have reached a tipping point of moral inferiority after Iraq & Abu Ghraib, followed by the housing bubble pop crisis of 2008.

Most hate speech is Free Speech -- one can't really stop hate speech without censorship. Especially when speaking the truth about Black IQs is called hate speech.

It's not just, nor even primarily, the smart phone causing the problems -- tho the smart phone does cause problems (and might be the single biggest cause). Cancelling smart phones in schools is a good start.

This is a related dialectic to that of The Mob vs. Sovereign Individual that Hoel talks about. But so also different as to require more thinking about it.

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Pretty decent quote from Hoel’s article, looking at modern historical Hegelian dialectics: “Sure, capitalism arguably won more than communism did, but when zoomed to the metaphysical scale of Hegel a good deal of our political infighting looks like mere quibbling over the exact state of the capitalist/communist synthesis.”

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One doesn't have to zoom out very far even mere historically - let alone metaphysically - to realize that most modern states have converged a great deal in terms of scope and function and mix of regulated markets and economic redistribution. It's only the narcissism of small differences and false consciousness of buying various national mythos cover stories that fools us into thinking that the differences in ideological basis or political organization between states are much bigger than than they actually are.

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The note on David Brin's "new ethic of politeness" recalls Voltaire's "il faut se communiquer avec politesse" (It is not enough to be gathered in a city, we must communicate with politeness; this communication softens the bitterness of life everywhere.)

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It was announced this week that Texas' largest private employment sector is now "food services and accommodations", surpassing healthcare - so maybe we're importing those people in order to make tacos for one another, and for the grandchildren. Very old people don't mind opening nor eating a can of soup.

A curious crime story here a few weeks ago - a college student on the coast, vanished. What he was doing at the moment of his vanishing was perhaps equally mysterious to people not of his generation: he was fetching from his doorstep, a meal of some sort - from a nearby convenience store (?) - that he paid for "UberEats" to drop off. At 3 AM.

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It's hard to take someone seriously when they say stuff like this:

"Uncle Sam borrows trillions of dollars from our grandchildren to pay millions of newly minted quasi-americans to provide healthcare to a steadily growing class of retirees."

Spending on Medicare is a shade less than a trillion/yr. Less than half of that comes from the general fund where it contributes to debt. Meanwhile the deficit in FY23 was 1.7T. It would seem we have bigger problems than healthcare spending for retirees.

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As a healthcare consultant now on Medicare Advantage, it is clear that the current US HC system has become a kluge of third-party payment fueled rent-seeking & waste that provides dismal care to most. I'm not suggesting socialized medicine (scale issues and see the debacle in Canada), and believe it's impossible to get market forces back in play to fix things, so I have no idea what to do except game the system to my best ability.

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Mar 29Edited

Different issue than where US debt comes from but that's ok.

We could certainly argue about dismal care or why care isn't better but I agree there is huge waste and the problems seem insurmountable.

I recently listened to someone talk about small fixes with small savings/benefits. He had a long list of them. His customer wanted bigger things but maybe many small changes would make a difference. I think so but hard to know if that approach would be enough. As you say, some of the biggest problems come from having third party payers.

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Keep in mind that Medicare doesn't cover much in the way of long term care. Nursing home care is largely covered by Medicaid, which adds another $150 billion/year or so in spending:

https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2022/3/9/projecting-medicaids-long-term-care-expenditures

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Yep. And that was another issue with the quote. It starts with nursing home and morphs to health care. Of course they overlap a bit but they are very different.

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Canada's political set owns a suite of luxury beliefs that are mostly less fussy than in American academia, but are more destructive because they are trendy and create huge uncertainty on investment stability.

Resource extraction isn't a significant problem in a country like Canada with a wide variety of primary and secondary industries. But, it becomes a problem with flavour of the year views on which extractive industries are acceptable (or at least ignored by the current regime) and which are not. The uncertainty of the investment climate is entirely owned by the federal (generally central Canadian supported) and provincial governments who use current luxury beliefs (carbon tax unalloyed good, traditional agriculture good, narrowly-interpreted first nations traditions best, urban density good, material progress bad, etc.) to stifle investment in resources and supporting infrastructure.

The RCMP report is probably overplayed, but does indicate the divide between people who create (including resource extraction) and the noisier ones with luxury beliefs who consistently get in the way. That the next federal election will look like the 80s Mulroney landslide, showing a rejection of the luxury beliefs of the 60s and 70s, is reasonably likely. A significant majority of Canadians are now negatively affected (cashflow-wise) by prevailing luxury beliefs.

What's quite cool - that it may be the kernel of a resurgence in acceptance of development - is the number of native bands who are rejecting the ultra-traditional view (significantly held by non-native progressives) that they should remain hunter/gatherers. There's the urban development plans in Squamish and rumours of a private hospital on Tsuut'ina land in Calgary, among others.

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