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$625/$698 = 90%. Not a big deal. That seems pretty close to accurate for the median voter.

I would also point out that writing checks to individuals and letting them decide how to spend it is usually some of the least damaging ways the government spends money (in this case they aren't even really spending it, just transferring it).

Medicare is a different story, but it's a story of reforming our entire healthcare system, not really a question of what one generation owes the next. Right now Medicare means "we cover everything until you die". If its going to mean something else that its a fundamentally different benefit. Maybe that is a good idea, but it's more complicated then cutting SS payments 10% or whatever.

I would point out that the real constituency for Medicare is the health industry as much as seniors. Seniors don't benefit nearly as much from end of life care as the people getting paid do.

I'm generally against the Gerontocracy, but I'm reflexively against cutting benefits UNLESS the money is going to be spent on things that are better then my Mom getting a check and my not having to support her. So if they want to use the money for a child tax credit, good. But if they want to use it on the Green New Deal, I'd rather my Mom got the check.

What will probably happen is a mixture of neglect, means testing, and raising taxes on people with six figure incomes. Absent healthcare reform none of that will matter either.

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There is NO budget, nor entitlement crises, until the Democrats support cuts because of the crisis. Which will likely only be AFTER the crisis.

The more years, and decades, that pass before such a crisis, the less needed seem the tough choices of higher taxes and/or lower entitlements.

It's also clear that whenever the Republicans talk about "reform", it is unfairly portrayed as cutting or eliminating SS & Medicare. People who are serious about getting elected would be foolish (the Stupid party?) to talk "cutting SS".

It's increasingly likely that better medical AI plus careBots who can actually take care of sick folk will be working well before the overspending of US dollars crashes Western (Christian capitalist) civilization. It remains a big risk that the crash happens too soon - but I don't see it in the next 4-8 years.

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Ah, nothing represents the famous askblog tagline, "taking the most charitable view of those who disagree" than "half my writing being about how conservatives are immoral, low IQ, and generally inferior to liberals." Hanania seems to have a real mean streak there.

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Seems like what Hanania is saying about who gets "coded as conservative" is only true on Twitter and in heavily Twitter-influenced IRL settings.

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Kling wrote:

"But I still worry about the direction of causality—some children may be ready to be included in serious discussions, and some may not be."

We increasingly expect very little from children is my observation. If Karlsson is correct, that children pick up the competency of the adults they are around every day, then we are screwed as a society, because the vast majority of children are around idiots most of the day.

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The Wright/Hughes talk went up on YouTube in full a couple days ago

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