Michael Strong has a passion project; Alfonso Peccatiello looks at debt;Tove K on the leisure-children trade-off; Bryan Caplan hearts the United Arab Emirates
And people with more than three children don't have to be some kind of workaholics who enjoy free time less than average. They just need to enjoy modern amusements (not old amusements) much less than average.
Is it a coincidence that both Caplan & Hanania wrote enthusiastic, hugely one-sided open border paeans to UAE, or is there something more sinister at work?
Most likely they were there at the same time; Hanania is a bit of a student of Caplan, and I suspect they attend many of the same conferences. Possibly also Hanania just followed up on Caplan’s article.
I have no idea about those two in particular. But I do know that the UAE and Qatar both spend spread a TON of money around US thinktanks, universities, and, indirectly, barely, to politicians, especially in terms of the tolerated forms of "first world corruption", endowments and contributions that fund positions for friends and family of politicians and government officials, and often those politicians and government officials themselves in "post-government employment". For as much money is rolling around the US economy, foreign actors find the prices to purchase influence here to be astonishingly cheap.
Qatar in particular is part of the Shiite Axis and a laundering conduit for Iranian influence operations and sparked a crisis with Sunni Arab countries a few years ago because it was participating with Iran in schemes to disrupt those governments, to include support for terrorists. The US has to be delicate cause of the geopolitically strategic location and the presence of a US base, but it doesn't have to be foolish or blind either.
Yet, somehow, not even ten years later, and quietly with only a few weeks to go in his term, Biden simply announced that Qatar was going to get into the coveted Visa Waiver Program with the US. If you think that decision was handled in the usual way with the usual amount of time, scrutiny, rigor, interagency consensus, track record of having very low fraudulent document incidents, etc. and not one of the most brazen and blatant examples of foreign policy corruption in recent history, well, I have some prime Persian Gulf real estate to sell you.
Bryan Caplan - “90% of the time I read what's relevant to what I'm writing so I'm genuinely knowledgeable. Other than Hanania, I'm pretty burnt out on just reading new stuff for fun.”
Caplan has created an enviable writerly niche, by combining an artless, guileless tone with his reliably "Opposite Day!" approach to all subjects.
He seems to be about ten minutes away from celebrating the Lost Cause. Maybe he can make it cool again lol, or at least nerd-cool. But he should be warned that Yankees like to keep in their back pockets the right to tar with certain long-disused brushes, so if he decides to go full University of the South, he will likely find it hinted that he's in the closet.
I once read a piece by Michael Anton (uh-oh!) about a visit to the UAE and one detail I wouldn't have thought of, struck me: he said it was easy to "tell" the small percentage of Emiratis from everybody else, even the Muslim guest workers from other countries, because they alone went about in the white robes that granted the most comfort in the desert sun. Even their women got stuck with dark colors, he claimed.
Of course, it's probably not very practical to clean toilets or flip burgers or repair vehicles while wearing flowing white garb like your "willing employers" (?)* anyway.
But I could readily believe that the addition of noble costumes, in effect, would be very appealing to those defenders of the "natural" elite, like Caplan. I mean, differences *are* decorative and diverting, like a sci-fi or fantasy novel, and homogenization is very dull. Hence why as a child I loved those various mid-century series of books meant for school libraries, about the countries of the world - that tended to emphasize costume, dance, food, and "how they celebrate Christmas". You didn't need sci-fi then.
*People who aren't willing to work are typically willing to employ, no?
My reply comment is also reference to the comments of konshtok and Christopher B in a thread below this one. I noticed that Caplan's reflections on the UAE are based on a one-day layover in Abu Dhabi. In his first 'thought,' he says that he "saw not the slightest sign of Islamist fanaticism." For a first-hand account from a woman who lived there, see Andrew Gold's (Heretics) podcast with Nuriyah Khan, a British citizen who lived as an expat in Dubai, and who relates her nightmare experience trying to get a divorce under the framework of Sharia law that prevails in the UAE. Any Westerner with experience living on a long-term basis in a foreign country, or perhaps any Westerner with common sense, would know better than to draw conclusions based on a such a short stay. One thing I learned from living as an expat in a foreign country (Russia, which is geographically and culturally far more Western than the UAE) is that even institutions and entities that nominally had a 'Western facade' did not necessarily operate as they do in the West.
"I think of this as a passion project, as opposed to get-super-rich project. He is really great at what he does, and that makes it a good investment." I'm sure that's correct. $16K list, $8.5k net, for a home school program is a niche of a niche. We have a kid in a similar in-person HS in Chicago. It's an IB program in a school run on Montessori principles. Couldn't recommend it more highly than I do. All the small private schools in the area are struggling to meet admissions goals due to demographic changes.
I've seen some criticism of Caplan's UAE takes. Sounds a bit like an optimistic version of a Coates type tour of a country.
People get their backs up when someone suggests they should flesh out their position with an actual Substack post. Someone said that to me the other day and I too felt a twinge of "psh, screw you" and I don't know why.
I guess it feels like a way of suggesting that someone is not being serious or persuasive enough in the moment. Or like a dare put to a stupid person.
I think it's incumbent on anybody pushing Caplan's ideas to explain how the guest worker (aka slave labor) system of an oil kleptocracy is applicable to the US.
“A court in the United Arab Emirates has handed 57 Bangladeshis long prison terms for holding protests in the Gulf state against their own country’s government.
Three of the unnamed defendants were sentenced to life for “inciting riots in several streets across the UAE on Friday”, while 53 others were jailed for 10 years and one for 11 years, state-run Wam news agency reported.
It cited their court-appointed defence lawyer as arguing during Sunday’s trial that the gatherings had no criminal intent and that the evidence was insufficient.
Amnesty International condemned what it called the UAE’s ‘extreme reaction to the mere existence of a public protest’ on its soil.
Protests are effectively illegal in the UAE, where foreigners make up almost 90% of the population. Bangladeshis are the third largest expatriate group.”
Caplan argues that “The UAE is far more committed than the West to the freedoms that matter most: to work for a willing employer, rent from a willing landlord, and shop with willing merchants.”
Interestingly, the UAE, like many YIMBY jurisdictions in the USA, has rent control. Per the Brave AI:
“The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has implemented rent control measures to regulate the rental market and protect tenants’ rights. Here are the key aspects:
Rent Cap: In Abu Dhabi, the “Rent Cap” restricts rent increases for a certain period, typically two years, after the initial lease contract. This means landlords cannot raise rents during this period.
Abu Dhabi Law No. 20 of 2006: This law governs the relationship between landlords and tenants in Abu Dhabi, setting out terms and conditions for increasing rental amounts. It provides a fair balance of rights and responsibilities for both parties.
Security Deposit: Landlords often require a security deposit, usually equivalent to one month’s rent, which is refundable upon the end of the lease provided there is no damage to the property.
Ejari: The UAE government’s Ejari system registers rental contracts, ensuring transparency and protecting tenants’ rights.
Rent Increases: In Dubai, rent increases are subject to the Dubai Land Department’s (DLD) regulations. While there is no fixed cap, rent hikes are monitored to prevent excessive increases.
Tenant Protections: The UAE’s rental laws provide protections for tenants, including:
A minimum one-year lease term
A maximum security deposit equivalent to one month’s rent
A requirement for landlords to provide a written contract
Protections against unfair eviction notices
Recent Developments: In January 2021, the DLD announced plans to introduce a new law freezing rental agreements for three years, but specific details on its implications are still unclear.”
And Brave also provides an overview of retail sales regulations in the UAE:
“UAE Retail Sales Regulations
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has a well-established retail sector, with a mix of traditional brick-and-mortar stores and modern e-commerce platforms. To operate a retail business in the UAE, entrepreneurs must comply with various regulations and laws. Here are some key aspects:
Licencing Requirements: Retailers must obtain a trade licence from the Department of Economic Development (DED) in the respective emirate. This licence will specify the type of business and activities allowed.
Electronic Contracting: The UAE’s Federal Decree - Law No. 14 of 2023 Concerning the Modern Technology-based Trade governs e-commerce transactions. This law regulates the sale and purchase of goods, services, and data through digital platforms.
Terms and Conditions of Sale: Retailers must establish clear terms and conditions for online sales, including refund and return policies, payment methods, and delivery timelines.
Copyright and Content: Retailers are responsible for ensuring that published content on their e-commerce platforms does not infringe on the rights of others or violate UAE laws and regulations.
Sales Tax: Retailers must collect and remit sales tax, also known as Value-Added Tax (VAT), on taxable goods and services.
Consumer Protection: The UAE’s Consumer Protection Law (Federal Law No. 24 of 2006) regulates consumer rights and protections, including product quality, warranties, and dispute resolution.
E-commerce Framework: The Telecommunications and Digital Government Regulatory Authority (TDRA) oversees the eCommerce framework and transactions in the UAE, ensuring compliance with regulations and laws.
Additional Considerations
Retailers operating in free zones may have different licensing requirements and regulations compared to those operating in the mainland.
Some emirates, like Dubai, have their own e-commerce regulations and laws, which may differ from federal regulations.
Retailers must comply with UAE laws and regulations regarding data protection, cybersecurity, and online transactions.
By understanding these regulations and laws, retailers can ensure a smooth and compliant operation in the UAE’s retail market.”
Maybe it’s just the absence of democracy that thrills Caplan? He seems to give the impression that he advocates passive obedience for most people. In that regard, he does not seem so different from Catholic integralists like Adrian Vermeule and other post-liberals.
Congratulations to the UAE and Singapore on their prosperity. But there are many highly prosperous more authentically democratic countries in the world too. The fact that so many pundits like Caplan are not just critical of democracy but actively hostile to it, underlies much of what Martin Gurri writes about today in the City Journal:
“Liberal politics degenerated into the will to power. The pursuit of happiness was reduced to a frantic grab for pleasure—but pleasure devoid of happiness is a tedious and insipid goal. The last surviving values were said to be reason and science—but why should they be privileged? At some point in the twenty-first century, the critical eye turned inward; the Enlightenment began to devour itself.”
Caplan is correct that Western democracies failure to allow more immigrants to come work, rent, and shop is black mark. UAE. failure to allow the people who work, rent, and shop there to participate in governing the place is a black mark. And both get black marks for failing to tax net emissions of CO2. Caplan's MMD, but I'll take our black marks over UAE's
The debt questions pretty easy in principle. What is the NPV of what it financed? I think a lot is in things that have NPV < 0 and these thing should either not have been done at all or they should have been financed with taxes on private expenditures with NPV <0 too.
Florida & Texas state governments should put up solar panels over govt parking lots, to power govt air conditioning. And publicize the costs and electricity generation benefits. DC govt parking lots should become solar as well.
Yet CO2 climate alarmism remains unscientific—all models from 20+ years ago have predicted higher temps and less ice than has been observed. They made falsifiable predictions, which did, in fact, falsify those models.
More nuclear power would be better for America, as it has been very good fo France (which has many other worse immigration problems).
"Here are some staggering statistics about the US economy - since mid-2020:"
I don't disagree regarding gdp and debt but it still seems a bit like I'm being intentionally mislead when he starts from a date shortly after the start of COVID when gdp tanked and spending was extra high for a couple years.
That said, debt growth doesn't seem as bad when comparing it to gdp growth as it does when looked at in other ways.
Also Classical Conversations, a Christian education company with some 125,000 students, runs on Socratic seminar model. I work mostly with homeschool speech and debate students (two largest leagues are Stoa and NCFCA). Many of the club coaches and top students are also in Classical Conversations.
“TSE, and its many competitors, spin offs, imitators, and its more extended cultural influence has fundamentally changed the world. The dark ages of government scripted adolescence from 1950 to 2050 are finally over. The future is bright for all of humanity. Thanks to TSE for paving the way forward.”
Much of this is true, but is it fair to say that TSE paved the way forward? TSE had a huge impact, but the online format lacked the vitality and beauty of the Individualized Learning Academies (ILA) that emerged in 2027.
It’s more accurate to say that the renaissance that gave birth to our Socratic Republic was nurtured by Michael Strong, Barbara Baker, Bob Luddy, Maria Montessori, Russ Roberts, Steve Jobs, Chris Best and billions of others.
What the founders of ILA and other village schools realized was that people still wanted sports, in-person play, and the opportunity to fall in love in person. Additionally the job-skills program that TSE implemented in 2028 never worked as Strong had hoped. Shop work, lab work, culinary arts, film studios, military arts, and many other aspects of life require in-person learning. Strong’s Socratic Experience played an enormous role, especially among the New Elites, but it remained an intellectual, personal growth and philosophy movement. It never became popular among the lower classes and those that work with their bodies.
Pardon if this is a dumb question, but why are all these dates in the future being referred to in the past tense? Am I missing something, or just wake up from a 30 year coma and head to work without anyone mentioning it to me?
No worries. Strong wrote an obit for his TSE from the future. Not sure what the date of the obit is, but refers to the dark period we’re now living through 1950-2050.
"young people in the late 21st century were radically more purpose-driven and flourishing than were those in the first half of the 21st century."
Pretty sure he means the dark period to be from 2000-2050.
"That was a dark period of human history in which the adolescent mental health crisis was at its peak, mental health and substance abuse issues were at their peak, celebrity culture and shallowness were at their peak, and there was every reason to believe that these trends would continue to become worse."
I hope it doesn't take another 25 years to get beyond this
Perhaps he means it begins around 1950 and becomes noticeable and a real problem past 2000. That kind of makes narrative sense: it was a poor adaptation to affluence, advanced technology, and scientific advance--which weakened established customs and religious belief.
Something is scalable if it works comparably with small sets and large. Some interventions/processes appear to work one way with small set/group/setting (when the question comes up, it’s usually with reference to positive results) but do those positive results keep up as size & scale increase?
"Why is that? Because religion says that children are good and devout people obey religion? Probably, yes."
Actually, no:
https://www.mangosorbananas.com/p/how-the-amish-spend-their-time
And people with more than three children don't have to be some kind of workaholics who enjoy free time less than average. They just need to enjoy modern amusements (not old amusements) much less than average.
Is it a coincidence that both Caplan & Hanania wrote enthusiastic, hugely one-sided open border paeans to UAE, or is there something more sinister at work?
Most likely they were there at the same time; Hanania is a bit of a student of Caplan, and I suspect they attend many of the same conferences. Possibly also Hanania just followed up on Caplan’s article.
I have no idea about those two in particular. But I do know that the UAE and Qatar both spend spread a TON of money around US thinktanks, universities, and, indirectly, barely, to politicians, especially in terms of the tolerated forms of "first world corruption", endowments and contributions that fund positions for friends and family of politicians and government officials, and often those politicians and government officials themselves in "post-government employment". For as much money is rolling around the US economy, foreign actors find the prices to purchase influence here to be astonishingly cheap.
Qatar in particular is part of the Shiite Axis and a laundering conduit for Iranian influence operations and sparked a crisis with Sunni Arab countries a few years ago because it was participating with Iran in schemes to disrupt those governments, to include support for terrorists. The US has to be delicate cause of the geopolitically strategic location and the presence of a US base, but it doesn't have to be foolish or blind either.
Yet, somehow, not even ten years later, and quietly with only a few weeks to go in his term, Biden simply announced that Qatar was going to get into the coveted Visa Waiver Program with the US. If you think that decision was handled in the usual way with the usual amount of time, scrutiny, rigor, interagency consensus, track record of having very low fraudulent document incidents, etc. and not one of the most brazen and blatant examples of foreign policy corruption in recent history, well, I have some prime Persian Gulf real estate to sell you.
Bryan Caplan - “90% of the time I read what's relevant to what I'm writing so I'm genuinely knowledgeable. Other than Hanania, I'm pretty burnt out on just reading new stuff for fun.”
https://scottgibb.substack.com/p/q-and-a-with-bryan-caplan
Caplan has created an enviable writerly niche, by combining an artless, guileless tone with his reliably "Opposite Day!" approach to all subjects.
He seems to be about ten minutes away from celebrating the Lost Cause. Maybe he can make it cool again lol, or at least nerd-cool. But he should be warned that Yankees like to keep in their back pockets the right to tar with certain long-disused brushes, so if he decides to go full University of the South, he will likely find it hinted that he's in the closet.
I once read a piece by Michael Anton (uh-oh!) about a visit to the UAE and one detail I wouldn't have thought of, struck me: he said it was easy to "tell" the small percentage of Emiratis from everybody else, even the Muslim guest workers from other countries, because they alone went about in the white robes that granted the most comfort in the desert sun. Even their women got stuck with dark colors, he claimed.
Of course, it's probably not very practical to clean toilets or flip burgers or repair vehicles while wearing flowing white garb like your "willing employers" (?)* anyway.
But I could readily believe that the addition of noble costumes, in effect, would be very appealing to those defenders of the "natural" elite, like Caplan. I mean, differences *are* decorative and diverting, like a sci-fi or fantasy novel, and homogenization is very dull. Hence why as a child I loved those various mid-century series of books meant for school libraries, about the countries of the world - that tended to emphasize costume, dance, food, and "how they celebrate Christmas". You didn't need sci-fi then.
*People who aren't willing to work are typically willing to employ, no?
My reply comment is also reference to the comments of konshtok and Christopher B in a thread below this one. I noticed that Caplan's reflections on the UAE are based on a one-day layover in Abu Dhabi. In his first 'thought,' he says that he "saw not the slightest sign of Islamist fanaticism." For a first-hand account from a woman who lived there, see Andrew Gold's (Heretics) podcast with Nuriyah Khan, a British citizen who lived as an expat in Dubai, and who relates her nightmare experience trying to get a divorce under the framework of Sharia law that prevails in the UAE. Any Westerner with experience living on a long-term basis in a foreign country, or perhaps any Westerner with common sense, would know better than to draw conclusions based on a such a short stay. One thing I learned from living as an expat in a foreign country (Russia, which is geographically and culturally far more Western than the UAE) is that even institutions and entities that nominally had a 'Western facade' did not necessarily operate as they do in the West.
"I noticed that Caplan's reflections on the UAE are based on a one-day layover in Abu Dhabi."
Bryan Caplan: the libertarian answer to Thomas Friedman
Caplan has created an enviable writerly niche, by combining an artless, guileless tone with his reliably "Opposite Day!" approach to all subjects.
Funny! I hate Opposite Day, but I love Bryan. Maybe an acquired taste.
"I think of this as a passion project, as opposed to get-super-rich project. He is really great at what he does, and that makes it a good investment." I'm sure that's correct. $16K list, $8.5k net, for a home school program is a niche of a niche. We have a kid in a similar in-person HS in Chicago. It's an IB program in a school run on Montessori principles. Couldn't recommend it more highly than I do. All the small private schools in the area are struggling to meet admissions goals due to demographic changes.
I've seen some criticism of Caplan's UAE takes. Sounds a bit like an optimistic version of a Coates type tour of a country.
another reminder of why I despise Caplan
the pretense that the economic rights of the western expats in the UAE extend to the indian workers
What do you despise about Bryan?
his refusal to engage with the ACTUAL
open borders policies
he is always arguing as if for the platonic idea of free movement and not for what is actually practiced
indentured servitude in the gulf states and state subsidized 3rd world anarcho tyranny in the west
Okay. Have you considered writing this up as Substack post so we can understand your perspective and build some pressure on Bryan to address it?
I have just explained my position TWICE
and brevity is the soul of wit to coin a phrase
if you know Caplan personally then by all means share this
otherwise
is there a point to this thread or are you just bored and lonely?
Does it help your case to be disrespectful?
People get their backs up when someone suggests they should flesh out their position with an actual Substack post. Someone said that to me the other day and I too felt a twinge of "psh, screw you" and I don't know why.
I guess it feels like a way of suggesting that someone is not being serious or persuasive enough in the moment. Or like a dare put to a stupid person.
Playing dumb doesn't help yours.
I think it's incumbent on anybody pushing Caplan's ideas to explain how the guest worker (aka slave labor) system of an oil kleptocracy is applicable to the US.
The UAE’s foreign worker permit system (https://u.ae/en/information-and-services/jobs/employment-in-the-private-sector/job-offers-and-work-permits-and-contracts/work-permits ) seems to resemble the US H2-B visa system except that there are publicly announced annual caps on H2-B awards (https://www.uscis.gov/working-in-the-united-states/temporary-workers/h-2b-temporary-non-agricultural-workers ) and it is unclear whether the UAE chooses to limit the number of work permits it issues. The UAE does have a standard 50 dirham per day fine for overstaying visas. Foreign workers in the UAE are rarely granted citizenship and UAE citizens compose only 0.34% of the private sector workforce (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Migrant_workers_in_the_United_Arab_Emirates ). Like H2-B workers, foreign workers in the UAE have limited rights and protections. UAE courts are much like US courts and mete out harsh punishment for unapproved protests:
“A court in the United Arab Emirates has handed 57 Bangladeshis long prison terms for holding protests in the Gulf state against their own country’s government.
Three of the unnamed defendants were sentenced to life for “inciting riots in several streets across the UAE on Friday”, while 53 others were jailed for 10 years and one for 11 years, state-run Wam news agency reported.
It cited their court-appointed defence lawyer as arguing during Sunday’s trial that the gatherings had no criminal intent and that the evidence was insufficient.
Amnesty International condemned what it called the UAE’s ‘extreme reaction to the mere existence of a public protest’ on its soil.
Protests are effectively illegal in the UAE, where foreigners make up almost 90% of the population. Bangladeshis are the third largest expatriate group.”
(https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crgk8gnpg0zo )
Caplan argues that “The UAE is far more committed than the West to the freedoms that matter most: to work for a willing employer, rent from a willing landlord, and shop with willing merchants.”
Interestingly, the UAE, like many YIMBY jurisdictions in the USA, has rent control. Per the Brave AI:
“The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has implemented rent control measures to regulate the rental market and protect tenants’ rights. Here are the key aspects:
Rent Cap: In Abu Dhabi, the “Rent Cap” restricts rent increases for a certain period, typically two years, after the initial lease contract. This means landlords cannot raise rents during this period.
Abu Dhabi Law No. 20 of 2006: This law governs the relationship between landlords and tenants in Abu Dhabi, setting out terms and conditions for increasing rental amounts. It provides a fair balance of rights and responsibilities for both parties.
Security Deposit: Landlords often require a security deposit, usually equivalent to one month’s rent, which is refundable upon the end of the lease provided there is no damage to the property.
Ejari: The UAE government’s Ejari system registers rental contracts, ensuring transparency and protecting tenants’ rights.
Rent Increases: In Dubai, rent increases are subject to the Dubai Land Department’s (DLD) regulations. While there is no fixed cap, rent hikes are monitored to prevent excessive increases.
Tenant Protections: The UAE’s rental laws provide protections for tenants, including:
A minimum one-year lease term
A maximum security deposit equivalent to one month’s rent
A requirement for landlords to provide a written contract
Protections against unfair eviction notices
Recent Developments: In January 2021, the DLD announced plans to introduce a new law freezing rental agreements for three years, but specific details on its implications are still unclear.”
And Brave also provides an overview of retail sales regulations in the UAE:
“UAE Retail Sales Regulations
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has a well-established retail sector, with a mix of traditional brick-and-mortar stores and modern e-commerce platforms. To operate a retail business in the UAE, entrepreneurs must comply with various regulations and laws. Here are some key aspects:
Licencing Requirements: Retailers must obtain a trade licence from the Department of Economic Development (DED) in the respective emirate. This licence will specify the type of business and activities allowed.
Electronic Contracting: The UAE’s Federal Decree - Law No. 14 of 2023 Concerning the Modern Technology-based Trade governs e-commerce transactions. This law regulates the sale and purchase of goods, services, and data through digital platforms.
Terms and Conditions of Sale: Retailers must establish clear terms and conditions for online sales, including refund and return policies, payment methods, and delivery timelines.
Copyright and Content: Retailers are responsible for ensuring that published content on their e-commerce platforms does not infringe on the rights of others or violate UAE laws and regulations.
Sales Tax: Retailers must collect and remit sales tax, also known as Value-Added Tax (VAT), on taxable goods and services.
Consumer Protection: The UAE’s Consumer Protection Law (Federal Law No. 24 of 2006) regulates consumer rights and protections, including product quality, warranties, and dispute resolution.
E-commerce Framework: The Telecommunications and Digital Government Regulatory Authority (TDRA) oversees the eCommerce framework and transactions in the UAE, ensuring compliance with regulations and laws.
Additional Considerations
Retailers operating in free zones may have different licensing requirements and regulations compared to those operating in the mainland.
Some emirates, like Dubai, have their own e-commerce regulations and laws, which may differ from federal regulations.
Retailers must comply with UAE laws and regulations regarding data protection, cybersecurity, and online transactions.
By understanding these regulations and laws, retailers can ensure a smooth and compliant operation in the UAE’s retail market.”
Maybe it’s just the absence of democracy that thrills Caplan? He seems to give the impression that he advocates passive obedience for most people. In that regard, he does not seem so different from Catholic integralists like Adrian Vermeule and other post-liberals.
Congratulations to the UAE and Singapore on their prosperity. But there are many highly prosperous more authentically democratic countries in the world too. The fact that so many pundits like Caplan are not just critical of democracy but actively hostile to it, underlies much of what Martin Gurri writes about today in the City Journal:
“Liberal politics degenerated into the will to power. The pursuit of happiness was reduced to a frantic grab for pleasure—but pleasure devoid of happiness is a tedious and insipid goal. The last surviving values were said to be reason and science—but why should they be privileged? At some point in the twenty-first century, the critical eye turned inward; the Enlightenment began to devour itself.”
(https://www.city-journal.org/article/the-endarkenment )
Caplan is correct that Western democracies failure to allow more immigrants to come work, rent, and shop is black mark. UAE. failure to allow the people who work, rent, and shop there to participate in governing the place is a black mark. And both get black marks for failing to tax net emissions of CO2. Caplan's MMD, but I'll take our black marks over UAE's
The debt questions pretty easy in principle. What is the NPV of what it financed? I think a lot is in things that have NPV < 0 and these thing should either not have been done at all or they should have been financed with taxes on private expenditures with NPV <0 too.
Florida & Texas state governments should put up solar panels over govt parking lots, to power govt air conditioning. And publicize the costs and electricity generation benefits. DC govt parking lots should become solar as well.
Yet CO2 climate alarmism remains unscientific—all models from 20+ years ago have predicted higher temps and less ice than has been observed. They made falsifiable predictions, which did, in fact, falsify those models.
More nuclear power would be better for America, as it has been very good fo France (which has many other worse immigration problems).
"Here are some staggering statistics about the US economy - since mid-2020:"
I don't disagree regarding gdp and debt but it still seems a bit like I'm being intentionally mislead when he starts from a date shortly after the start of COVID when gdp tanked and spending was extra high for a couple years.
That said, debt growth doesn't seem as bad when comparing it to gdp growth as it does when looked at in other ways.
Also Classical Conversations, a Christian education company with some 125,000 students, runs on Socratic seminar model. I work mostly with homeschool speech and debate students (two largest leagues are Stoa and NCFCA). Many of the club coaches and top students are also in Classical Conversations.
“TSE, and its many competitors, spin offs, imitators, and its more extended cultural influence has fundamentally changed the world. The dark ages of government scripted adolescence from 1950 to 2050 are finally over. The future is bright for all of humanity. Thanks to TSE for paving the way forward.”
Much of this is true, but is it fair to say that TSE paved the way forward? TSE had a huge impact, but the online format lacked the vitality and beauty of the Individualized Learning Academies (ILA) that emerged in 2027.
It’s more accurate to say that the renaissance that gave birth to our Socratic Republic was nurtured by Michael Strong, Barbara Baker, Bob Luddy, Maria Montessori, Russ Roberts, Steve Jobs, Chris Best and billions of others.
What the founders of ILA and other village schools realized was that people still wanted sports, in-person play, and the opportunity to fall in love in person. Additionally the job-skills program that TSE implemented in 2028 never worked as Strong had hoped. Shop work, lab work, culinary arts, film studios, military arts, and many other aspects of life require in-person learning. Strong’s Socratic Experience played an enormous role, especially among the New Elites, but it remained an intellectual, personal growth and philosophy movement. It never became popular among the lower classes and those that work with their bodies.
Pardon if this is a dumb question, but why are all these dates in the future being referred to in the past tense? Am I missing something, or just wake up from a 30 year coma and head to work without anyone mentioning it to me?
No worries. Strong wrote an obit for his TSE from the future. Not sure what the date of the obit is, but refers to the dark period we’re now living through 1950-2050.
"young people in the late 21st century were radically more purpose-driven and flourishing than were those in the first half of the 21st century."
Pretty sure he means the dark period to be from 2000-2050.
"That was a dark period of human history in which the adolescent mental health crisis was at its peak, mental health and substance abuse issues were at their peak, celebrity culture and shallowness were at their peak, and there was every reason to believe that these trends would continue to become worse."
I hope it doesn't take another 25 years to get beyond this
Are you sure? He says in his post 1950-2050.
Nope, not sure at all. He says both 1950-2050 AND first half of 21st century. Which is what he really means? IDK.
I'm also a little unsure of what he thinks the problem is and doubtful he has identified a true cause and effect rather than correlation.
I find him overly pessimistic and don't see substance to back up his pessimism. I'm more in the Steven Pinker or Hans Rosling camp.
Perhaps he means it begins around 1950 and becomes noticeable and a real problem past 2000. That kind of makes narrative sense: it was a poor adaptation to affluence, advanced technology, and scientific advance--which weakened established customs and religious belief.
Oooh ok that makes a lot more sense. And hey, it is season appropriate!
Halloween! Took me a while to realize.
That sounds like a prediction of nonscalability.
Define scalability for me please.
Something is scalable if it works comparably with small sets and large. Some interventions/processes appear to work one way with small set/group/setting (when the question comes up, it’s usually with reference to positive results) but do those positive results keep up as size & scale increase?
Thank you. When you say, “That sounds like a prediction of nonscalability” what exactly are you referring to that is a prediction of nonscalability?