Cowen and Gross on scouting talent; Cowen on interview questions; Scott Sumner vs. Brad DeLong; C. Bradley Thompson on the educational deep state; Martin Gurri appears on video
"Without question, the principal transmission belt delivering Critical Race Theory directly into the bloodstream of America’s K-12 schools is through America’s teacher-training institutions."
How come? Well, the people in the education business think that school is the primary cause of upward mobility in the United States. Indeed, that it is disproportionately responsible for what is good in America; see, e.g., the bumper sticker, "If you can read this, thank a teacher." For at least 60 years, people in the business have been very, very concerned about "the gap"--the fact that white students (on average) do considerably better than black students. Ed schools have come up with lots of ways to attempt to close the gap but nothing has worked.
It is hard to exaggerate how frustrating this is. Why is nothing working? Why can't we do what we know we should be able to do? Explanations are required. The only constraint is that they must not "blame the victim". But that leaves only one possibility: It's still white people's fault. Even if there is no explicit or conscious racism, there is such an overpowering system of white privilege that schools can't do what they should be able to do, which is to close the gap. If it weren't for white privilege, they would.
As long as "blaming the victim" explanations are forbidden, something like CRT is the only possibility.
I think you do better to just look at the futures markets in the ordinary bonds, or just the bond prices themselves today. As I have written before, a recession will end this bout of inflation immediately, and may already be doing so.
"About 44 minutes in, Martin describes the elites as, rather than wanting to adapt to the new century, wishing they could “reconfigure the public” to go back to the 20th century."
Using Peter Zeihan's descriptions of the post-WWII era as a guide, they specifically want to go back to the last half of the 20th Century, and if pressed would really rather live in the last decade of the 20th Century forever. They are simply unequipped to handle anything more dynamic, and we're all going to suffer until they either learn or are replaced.
The TIPS market embeds what the market believes the government will report as inflation going forward. This is a different prediction from what inflation will actually be, but will be unmeasured.
Sumner has a specific idea of average as starting back in 202? and so that average is getting worse. I think the going forward expected average is more important, but DeLong is too sanguine about the 6-10 year TIPS expectation as being that significant. The fact is that TIPS does not expect the Fed to achieve 2% PCE (~2.3% CPI) over the next ten years. The Fed has more work to do.
"Without question, the principal transmission belt delivering Critical Race Theory directly into the bloodstream of America’s K-12 schools is through America’s teacher-training institutions."
How come? Well, the people in the education business think that school is the primary cause of upward mobility in the United States. Indeed, that it is disproportionately responsible for what is good in America; see, e.g., the bumper sticker, "If you can read this, thank a teacher." For at least 60 years, people in the business have been very, very concerned about "the gap"--the fact that white students (on average) do considerably better than black students. Ed schools have come up with lots of ways to attempt to close the gap but nothing has worked.
It is hard to exaggerate how frustrating this is. Why is nothing working? Why can't we do what we know we should be able to do? Explanations are required. The only constraint is that they must not "blame the victim". But that leaves only one possibility: It's still white people's fault. Even if there is no explicit or conscious racism, there is such an overpowering system of white privilege that schools can't do what they should be able to do, which is to close the gap. If it weren't for white privilege, they would.
As long as "blaming the victim" explanations are forbidden, something like CRT is the only possibility.
I think you do better to just look at the futures markets in the ordinary bonds, or just the bond prices themselves today. As I have written before, a recession will end this bout of inflation immediately, and may already be doing so.
"About 44 minutes in, Martin describes the elites as, rather than wanting to adapt to the new century, wishing they could “reconfigure the public” to go back to the 20th century."
Using Peter Zeihan's descriptions of the post-WWII era as a guide, they specifically want to go back to the last half of the 20th Century, and if pressed would really rather live in the last decade of the 20th Century forever. They are simply unequipped to handle anything more dynamic, and we're all going to suffer until they either learn or are replaced.
The TIPS market embeds what the market believes the government will report as inflation going forward. This is a different prediction from what inflation will actually be, but will be unmeasured.
Why does Sumner mention Average Inflation Targeting, when he himself says that the Fed has quietly dropped that policy?
Re: "a question [Tyler] likes to ask during interviews: “What are the open tabs on your browser right now?”
See "Cowen's Second Law: There is a literature on everything.":
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2015/04/tyler-cowens-three-laws.html
Well, there is a literature on job interviews. A robust finding is that job interviews aren't good predictors of performance on the job.
Is it plausible that job interviews will become good predictors, if we change the questions to ones like the one about open tabs on your browser?
Perhaps Tyler's new book about talent will make the case. I look forward to reading the book and Arnold's forthcoming review thereof.
Sumner has a specific idea of average as starting back in 202? and so that average is getting worse. I think the going forward expected average is more important, but DeLong is too sanguine about the 6-10 year TIPS expectation as being that significant. The fact is that TIPS does not expect the Fed to achieve 2% PCE (~2.3% CPI) over the next ten years. The Fed has more work to do.