Michael Lind on mineral resources; Amy Zegart on Cyberwar; Richard Hanania on the military-industrial complex; Robert Wright on Ukraine; Noah Smith on Ukraine; Wesley Yang and Shep Melnick on Title 9
Apr 14, 2022·edited Apr 14, 2022Liked by Arnold Kling
Britain struggles to meet its current energy requirements from largely gas and nuke with occasional contribution from wind - at the moment, midday on 14 Apr, wind contributes 2.61% provided by over 11 000 on-shore and off-shore turbines, 52% from gas, 18% from nuke.
A transition to EVs will require additional 60% plus (at least) electricity output, but the current grid cannot handle more than a 5% increase in load. The resources required - manufacturing, construction, transportation - to upgrade and extend the electricity grid to handle and distribute this load, with charging points throughout the land have simply not been calculated, so nobody knows where they will come from. One non-Government estimation of cost of this is £3 trillion. That does not include increased generation. UK Government’s ‘policy’ is now ‘more’ off-shore turbines and (unspecified) number of small, modern nuclear reactors. There is no Government forecast of how much extra electricity will be needed or how many extra generators will be required beyond… just more.
As of 1st April, UK energy tariffs increased by 50% (following the end of years of price-caps, which - no surprise - caused supply shortfall and ten bankruptcies of retail electricity suppliers, ironically ‘sustainable’ suppliers), another 50% likely next year - and nothing to do with the Russia/Ukraine situation although this will make it even worse.
UK Net Zero (Sense) transition policy starts and ends with claims and future deadlines with no details of what is entailed, cost & consequences, or road-map for the transition.
If the war persists and so does inflation of energy and food, I'm not so sure that the Biden policy on the war will continue to be popular.
I am biased as well in that I think our policy should be to support and encourage any deal that both Ukraine and Russia can get to, even if it means we give up sanctions. As you wrote, war is no football game.
Arnold, you say "War is no football game. There are no referees and no penalties enforced while the contest is going on."
I say "Life is no football game. Each of us trusts only a few other people because trust makes us vulnerable; we comply with rules governing interactions with people we don't trust only according to our own perception of the circumstances and risks, and we never rule out resorting to violence entirely."
"Market prices and profits provide the best incentives to conserve scarce resources. The market will not be perfect at providing for sustainability, but it will do a much better job than “green” advocates."
Unless environmentalists embrace the use of pigou taxes and subsidies to make market prices reflect the total costs and benefits of market transactions.
Britain struggles to meet its current energy requirements from largely gas and nuke with occasional contribution from wind - at the moment, midday on 14 Apr, wind contributes 2.61% provided by over 11 000 on-shore and off-shore turbines, 52% from gas, 18% from nuke.
A transition to EVs will require additional 60% plus (at least) electricity output, but the current grid cannot handle more than a 5% increase in load. The resources required - manufacturing, construction, transportation - to upgrade and extend the electricity grid to handle and distribute this load, with charging points throughout the land have simply not been calculated, so nobody knows where they will come from. One non-Government estimation of cost of this is £3 trillion. That does not include increased generation. UK Government’s ‘policy’ is now ‘more’ off-shore turbines and (unspecified) number of small, modern nuclear reactors. There is no Government forecast of how much extra electricity will be needed or how many extra generators will be required beyond… just more.
As of 1st April, UK energy tariffs increased by 50% (following the end of years of price-caps, which - no surprise - caused supply shortfall and ten bankruptcies of retail electricity suppliers, ironically ‘sustainable’ suppliers), another 50% likely next year - and nothing to do with the Russia/Ukraine situation although this will make it even worse.
UK Net Zero (Sense) transition policy starts and ends with claims and future deadlines with no details of what is entailed, cost & consequences, or road-map for the transition.
If the war persists and so does inflation of energy and food, I'm not so sure that the Biden policy on the war will continue to be popular.
I am biased as well in that I think our policy should be to support and encourage any deal that both Ukraine and Russia can get to, even if it means we give up sanctions. As you wrote, war is no football game.
Arnold, you say "War is no football game. There are no referees and no penalties enforced while the contest is going on."
I say "Life is no football game. Each of us trusts only a few other people because trust makes us vulnerable; we comply with rules governing interactions with people we don't trust only according to our own perception of the circumstances and risks, and we never rule out resorting to violence entirely."
"Market prices and profits provide the best incentives to conserve scarce resources. The market will not be perfect at providing for sustainability, but it will do a much better job than “green” advocates."
Unless environmentalists embrace the use of pigou taxes and subsidies to make market prices reflect the total costs and benefits of market transactions.