Emily Oster on masking in schools; The Zvi vs. Tyler; Yascha Mounk on Ukraine; Garry Kasparov on Putin; Glenn Greenwald on war propaganda; Amanda Ripley on conflict
"My reading of the history of wars is that they usually seemed very exciting and morally certain early on. But most of them did not up that way."
Moral certainty and excitement index where I live is disturbingly high, whatever one thinks of the merits of the cases on either side of the war. Pro-Ukraine solidarity merchandise signaling is expanding around 10% per day, viral meme sharing at 100% per day. I barely go out during the work week and I've already seen t-shirts, hoodies, flags, bumper stickers, decals, lapel pins, and - no joke - Ukraine flag athletic socks.
Zelenskyy is already getting the hero champion savior treatment, and we're just getting started. The stage is set and people's psychological pumps have been primed. It wouldn't take much at this point to throttle this up into full-blown war hysteria. Americans are more than a little nuts lately about literally everything, and it wouldn't surprise me if we totally lose our minds over this and react in some suicidally unwise ways. Pray for calm, pray for peace.
These posts make me feel like there's about 35 other substack letters I should or would like to be subscribing to, but I don't have the money or the time to read them all....
1. So long as we don't get carried away and actually end the world, it's a good opportunity for us to do a FIT style evaluation. Who's kept their head amidst the hysteria? Who's lost it? Who's said things so utterly crazy they should never be listened to again, and by the way, thank god they aren't in power.
Sensible members of both parties should be noting who the excitable and dangerous crazies are and making long-run plans to further sideline them.
2. It'll be worth seeing how much the war hysteria has legs in the absence of actual fighting by us. As bad as the hysteria is, once can already see it receding and other stories creeping back into the news. I think of this as the Sports Story test in my head. In most European countries (at least, I watch Belgian and French outlets semi-regularly), the big story gets a lot of attention and then at some point, they switch to talking about local issues and inevitably have a story about football or cycling or something. On really "serious" big story days, the Sports Story gets jettisoned. By this week, the Sports Stories are back. The hysteria will die down and the situation will stabilize. As that happens, the calls for unwise and dramatic action will fall too.
I generally try to avoid everything Greenwald says, but his warning regarding war propaganda (beware narratives, especially universal ones, especially in times of war) is sobering. Thank you for the link.
"My reading of the history of wars is that they usually seemed very exciting and morally certain early on. But most of them did not up that way."
Moral certainty and excitement index where I live is disturbingly high, whatever one thinks of the merits of the cases on either side of the war. Pro-Ukraine solidarity merchandise signaling is expanding around 10% per day, viral meme sharing at 100% per day. I barely go out during the work week and I've already seen t-shirts, hoodies, flags, bumper stickers, decals, lapel pins, and - no joke - Ukraine flag athletic socks.
Zelenskyy is already getting the hero champion savior treatment, and we're just getting started. The stage is set and people's psychological pumps have been primed. It wouldn't take much at this point to throttle this up into full-blown war hysteria. Americans are more than a little nuts lately about literally everything, and it wouldn't surprise me if we totally lose our minds over this and react in some suicidally unwise ways. Pray for calm, pray for peace.
These posts make me feel like there's about 35 other substack letters I should or would like to be subscribing to, but I don't have the money or the time to read them all....
I have two thoughts on war hysteria.
1. So long as we don't get carried away and actually end the world, it's a good opportunity for us to do a FIT style evaluation. Who's kept their head amidst the hysteria? Who's lost it? Who's said things so utterly crazy they should never be listened to again, and by the way, thank god they aren't in power.
Sensible members of both parties should be noting who the excitable and dangerous crazies are and making long-run plans to further sideline them.
2. It'll be worth seeing how much the war hysteria has legs in the absence of actual fighting by us. As bad as the hysteria is, once can already see it receding and other stories creeping back into the news. I think of this as the Sports Story test in my head. In most European countries (at least, I watch Belgian and French outlets semi-regularly), the big story gets a lot of attention and then at some point, they switch to talking about local issues and inevitably have a story about football or cycling or something. On really "serious" big story days, the Sports Story gets jettisoned. By this week, the Sports Stories are back. The hysteria will die down and the situation will stabilize. As that happens, the calls for unwise and dramatic action will fall too.
I generally try to avoid everything Greenwald says, but his warning regarding war propaganda (beware narratives, especially universal ones, especially in times of war) is sobering. Thank you for the link.
Oster: Correct, but I wish she would direct the reasoning to public policy, not just parental decisions.