In the UK the ‘gap’ was between white working class children and white middle class children (since we do not have the same racial demographics or history as USA). The villain was ‘poverty’. So despite education being free to all at the point of delivery and both working class and middle class attending the same State-run, ‘mixed-ability’ schools, ‘poverty’ just HAD to be the explanation, because children from ‘poor’ families did worse overall than children from ‘better off’ families - and correlation is a wonderful thing isn’t it?
The solution was to make exams easier, lower grade marking and fix it so 50% of school leavers went to university to study soft subjects like history of lesbian dance.
Now instead of leaving school at 16 and getting on the employment ladder working in a hamburger restaurant, young people leave ‘uni’ age 24 and get on the employment ladder working in a hamburger restaurant.
It has been an unqualified success however as the ‘gap’ has virtually been eliminated - ‘better off’ children now are just as dumb as ‘poor’ children. Result!
Three comments: All those metrics about falling behind in school are about being less adapted to school. They are about students who have had a long break from the 'school' environment not being as shaped by it. They have nothing to do with any hypothesis about performance outside the school environment.
Second: Becoming an administrator is about having a broader and less personal reach and is generally considered a promotion from teaching. The most talented organizational climbers and the most ambitious ideologues climb the fastest away from the work of personal engagement.
Third: I have zero faith in a global federal audit agency function. The audit agency will be more open to regulatory capture than almost any other. At best it will be a powerless shrill voice like many other agencies given that kind of function: OPM on the topic of workforce management, for example. More likely, it will become an advocate for the worst practices as personnel move back and forth. At worst it will become a group of party commissars and its own inquisition for a new, shadow government. A true balance of power requires greater separation, stronger motivation, and a greater distinction in the fundamental logic of the operations.
I'll echo your first point. I read another blogger who goes on about how schools were always crap, and even worse back in 'the good old days', and don't contribute much. In general that is probably correct as far as instruction goes, and things like Head Start reviews bear it out. Generalizing that to the socialization and transmission of culture that has radically changed is a step too far, I think.
I was going to say something like BenK does about a federal audit agency. I don't know how you would ever keep it from being co-opted, just like all the other agencies. You might think that an agency like that would be a separate power center and jealous of its power, but then that is the whole basis of our federal constitution -- that the Senate, House, Executive, Courts, and States would all be power centers and jealous of their power. I think that worked for a long time, but now all the power has coalesced around the two parties. The legislature has given up most of its power to the executive, and most of the power in the executive is with the permanent bureaucracy. The state governments are more aligned with the needs and desires of the party in power than with the actual state. (My Exhibit A for that is that the state I live in, New Mexico, joined the Popular Vote Compact because it is thought to be good for the Democrats, even though, as a smaller state we benefit from the electoral college.)
For what it's worth, I was referring to everyone in the education business, and especially to ed school people, since that was in the C. Bradley Thompson quote in Keeping Up with the FITS, 5/20. The full statement:
"Without question, the principal transmission belt delivering Critical Race Theory directly into the bloodstream of America’s K-12 schools is through America’s teacher-training institutions."
How come? My guess, having been a public school teacher for many years:
People in the education business think that it is disproportionately responsible for what is good in America. In particular, it is the primary agent of upward mobility. They are very proud of that.
Because of that, they are also very aware of "the gap"--the fact that black students do substantially worse than white students. For more than 60 years, people in the ed schools have been coming up with ways to reduce or eliminate "the gap". But nothing has worked! It is pretty much as big now as it was then.
I cannot exaggerate how galling, how frustrating that is to people in the business. There is a desperate search for explanation--with only one constraint on any possible explanation. It must not "blame the victim". It must not "punch down".
But like "interstate commerce" in Constitutional Law, these turn out to include just about anything that involves black behavior. If you say black people could do things differently to close the gap, you are blaming them for present behavior, and since blacks are victims, that is a forbidden thought.
There is only one possibility left. It is whitey's fault. Even if there is no explicit or conscious racism, there must be such an overpowering system of white privilege that black students are condemned to do poorly in school. Only if that privilege is completely removed will schools be able to assume their natural and proper role as the great agent of upward mobility.
A lot of people in the business don't want to believe that, and some actually don't. But as long as any "blame the victim" explanation is taboo and "blame the victim" is interpreted strictly, YOU DON'T HAVE ANY CHOICE. You have to be some variety of "woke". I think one difference between today and, say, 40 years ago, is that people in the business are more sensitive to what might be considered "punching down" or "blaming the victim" and more concerned to not do it.
Which means that they cannot accept Glenn Loury or John McWhorter or Tom Sowell. They are color-blind when it comes to rejecting ideas that are outside their moral Overton Window.
It is "nice" to not blame the victim. It is "nice" to not punch down. But as long as you try to be nice that way, you are forced into a hateful ideology that requires racial discrimination to undo all that white privilege. Most teachers want to be nice.
(For logical completeness, one could consider a third possibility. Someone could believe that "the gap" is natural, because black students as a group are substantially less smart than white students. It won't go away any more than the gap between male and female basketball players will. But that is even more taboo.)
"The gap" is exactly why Wokeness is so strong - there must be some explanation. But the truth is unspeakable: a) Black sexual promiscuity (75% children born out of wedlock - up from 30% in the 60s); b) Black criminality - too many Blacks choose to be criminals; c) lower Black average IQ (get cancelled for talking of this truth).
The worst gap is the income gap - claimed to be caused by the education gap. Were Blacks more successful in closing the income gap, thru hard work and honest work, the other gaps would not matter. Blacks were closing that gap after WW II until affirmative action victimhood celebration weakened the Black communities.
Our society needs a colorblind way to help lower IQ, non-college students have good, middleclass jobs and lives.
c) If the IQ gap is as big as the human biodiversity people say (10 to 15 points), no amount of "hard work and honest work" is going to close the gap. Perhaps it can be shrunk. But if all gaps are immoral, because all groups are presumed equal, we are now forced to some sort of quota system--potentially covering everything.
Re your last paragraph: Given Arnold's "subsidize demand, restrict supply", it is probably impossible for jobs held by "lower IQ, non-college students" to pay enough to have a "good middle-class" level of consumption. Housing and medical care will just be too expensive. The second will be dealt with by subsidized insurance, but the first may be intractable.
I think the above is important because there is way too much, "Woke people are just horrible sick people" on the web. Some are. But most are decent people who want to lead good lives. At the risk of invoking Godwin's Law, they are like Germans who voted for the NSDAP in 1933. Few Germans wanted to build death camps for Jews or start a world war, but they were hopeless about the ability of any of the other parties to fix things. Woke people are similarly hopeless about the ability of anything less than "smashing white privilege" to fix things racially.
The sad thing is that we, at least to the degree humanly possible, had fixed it. I'm old enough to remember when the top-rated TV show in America was about a middle class black family for almost a decade. Then 2008 happened, and the Marxists saw the way to use race as a more durable substitute for class to implement their policies.
People still believe in the neocon era that education reform could solve all of our problems, including the gap. By 2008 it was obvious that wasn't going to work. We could either swallow The Bell Curve or turn to increasingly wacky explanations.
But we hadn't fixed it in terms of outcomes. Black kids still did considerably worse in school as white kids, even though white teachers were desperate to close the gap. Black adults still had worse jobs and incomes, even though discrimination against blacks has been illegal for over half a century. If it is natural for all groups to have equal outcomes but they don't, there has to be a reason. And if it is thoughtcrime to blame the victim ...
I think the best way to police secrecy in the government is to regularly draft a few hundred taxpayers (with some reasonable limits on mental competence) annually to serve one year terms on several super-jury-inquisitor-inspector teams with complete and unquestionable investigational police power over the federal bureaucracy. Maybe each state can contribute some like the Senate.
Kinda like the audit agency Kling proposes but even more powerful and without permanent staff.
Having limited terms is crucial. I'd support annual, but think 5 or 10 years are better - so there is time to become an expert in how the gov't employees "game" whatever paperwork metrics are used to watch them.
I also think ALL college-educated gov't workers should have a 10 year maximum "public service" contract. Term limits for bureaucrats, as a check to balance the Deep State.
The Null Hypothesis states that all of our marginal improvements on education in the modern era (say post universal nutrition and basic K-12 education) is subject to massive diminishing marginal returns.
It doesn't state that suddenly closing schools and having kids play on their phones while locked in their house for two years won't have an effect.
Freddie DeBoer makes the point that a HUGE benefit of modern schools, for poor kids, is that the school is often a far more stable & safe environment than their homes, where there are more drugs & violence. This truth remains underdiscussed.
Re: "So, if you’re a teacher and you can’t close the gap and you refuse to blame genes or culture within the black population, you have to blame the culture at large. Hence you embrace CRT."
An alternative for teachers:
Blame the culture at large, especially the culture of race on the brain. Strive to treat every pupil as an individual: Who are you? What makes you tick? What will help you stand on your own two feet? Take the MLK train to the end of the line.
An alternative for teenagers/families/policy-makers:
Blame the one-size-fits-all curriculum and the lack of competition on the supply side of education. Advocate radical vouchers redeemable also for apprenticeships, training programs, internships at firms/orgs.
In the 1980s/1990s it was still acceptable to "Blame the Victim". This didn't close the gap.
People stopped blaming the victim because it doesn't work. If simply being tough on blacks would raise their IQ we would do it. Instilling discipline and civility is a separate issue.
In fact, it's pretty cruel to blame the victim if they truly can't achieve the objective you demand they achieve. All it results in is a lot of unnecessary misery on the part of the person unable to achieve and the people trying to help them achieve.
The real issue is that society can't admit that most people just aren't that necessary anymore. The Bell Curve is still depressing even if you take out the chapter on race. Not only will all those laid off manufacturing workers not be able to learn to code, neither will their children.
My broad comment is that you don't have to believe that education is useless to think that marginal education dollars are wasted. Notwithstanding the problems of government run schools, they clearly expose most students to vastly more math and reading than they would get without school. Taking that away isn't a marginal intervention. Relatedly, the summer slide, where kids forget much of what they've learned, is well documented. That's another non-marginal intervention.
So can we have a weak, semi-strong, and strong versions of the (Kling) null hypothesis?
Weak: increasing learning on the margin is possible, but only for very expensive and extensive interventions.
Semi-strong: scaled educational interventions on the margin do not increase learning.
Strong: scaled educational interventions do not increase average learning.
The summer slide is very true. But it is not unique to summer. It is actually a special case of the ten-week slide. By the time kids get to high school (and often middle school), they are in classes that they have little inherent interest in. They want to pass, or even to get good grades, so they memorize for tests and projects. But then their knowledge "decays" (in ed jargon) if they don't use it after that. One of the thing adults don't realize about high school is that courses are organized in 2-4 week units. Once the class finishes a unit, the information in it is put in the rear view mirror. A student rarely encounters it again. After 10 weeks, about as much is forgotten as over a 10 week summer.
There is no solution other than going back to the "spoils system" where the incoming President can fire everyone in the executive branch. It is the only way to truly make the administrative state responsive to the voters.
Another good option might be to recognize the administrative state was a mistake, and stop having one. Might not happen in my lifetime, but if, say, a president were to fire everyone in the branch and then only rehire for 80% of the positions and shutter some programs, that would be a good start. If he could get the incoming congress to remove certain functions that are actually legally mandated but obsolete that would help as well.
If austerity is coming, it might be time to whisper this idea into a few ears.
No President can do that- 95% of the executive branch can't be fired by the executive in charge. He is even limited in organizing. Now, the present SCOTUS might be amenable to allowing a President to just act under what used to be his Constitutional powers to run the executive branch, but I doubt it.
Agree. What mechanisms prevent Congress from messing with government employees? Is it the votes? Is it the plum jobs for friends and relatives? Is it fright over being held responsible for some disaster?
All of the above. The Democrats, obviously, will never agree to allow any turnover in the civilian employment of the US government- those employees are 70-30 or greater Democrats. The Republicans will be split because a lot of their family and friends work either directly for or one degree removed, for the US government.
Sorry, I wasn’t clear I was building on your idea. Fire (nearly) everyone, but then not backfill all the positions.
A bill revoking union negotiating within the federal government might help with that, too? It still is not obvious to me how the audit agency solves the problems as they stand, let alone the new problems it would face.
In the UK the ‘gap’ was between white working class children and white middle class children (since we do not have the same racial demographics or history as USA). The villain was ‘poverty’. So despite education being free to all at the point of delivery and both working class and middle class attending the same State-run, ‘mixed-ability’ schools, ‘poverty’ just HAD to be the explanation, because children from ‘poor’ families did worse overall than children from ‘better off’ families - and correlation is a wonderful thing isn’t it?
The solution was to make exams easier, lower grade marking and fix it so 50% of school leavers went to university to study soft subjects like history of lesbian dance.
Now instead of leaving school at 16 and getting on the employment ladder working in a hamburger restaurant, young people leave ‘uni’ age 24 and get on the employment ladder working in a hamburger restaurant.
It has been an unqualified success however as the ‘gap’ has virtually been eliminated - ‘better off’ children now are just as dumb as ‘poor’ children. Result!
Three comments: All those metrics about falling behind in school are about being less adapted to school. They are about students who have had a long break from the 'school' environment not being as shaped by it. They have nothing to do with any hypothesis about performance outside the school environment.
Second: Becoming an administrator is about having a broader and less personal reach and is generally considered a promotion from teaching. The most talented organizational climbers and the most ambitious ideologues climb the fastest away from the work of personal engagement.
Third: I have zero faith in a global federal audit agency function. The audit agency will be more open to regulatory capture than almost any other. At best it will be a powerless shrill voice like many other agencies given that kind of function: OPM on the topic of workforce management, for example. More likely, it will become an advocate for the worst practices as personnel move back and forth. At worst it will become a group of party commissars and its own inquisition for a new, shadow government. A true balance of power requires greater separation, stronger motivation, and a greater distinction in the fundamental logic of the operations.
I'll echo your first point. I read another blogger who goes on about how schools were always crap, and even worse back in 'the good old days', and don't contribute much. In general that is probably correct as far as instruction goes, and things like Head Start reviews bear it out. Generalizing that to the socialization and transmission of culture that has radically changed is a step too far, I think.
I was going to say something like BenK does about a federal audit agency. I don't know how you would ever keep it from being co-opted, just like all the other agencies. You might think that an agency like that would be a separate power center and jealous of its power, but then that is the whole basis of our federal constitution -- that the Senate, House, Executive, Courts, and States would all be power centers and jealous of their power. I think that worked for a long time, but now all the power has coalesced around the two parties. The legislature has given up most of its power to the executive, and most of the power in the executive is with the permanent bureaucracy. The state governments are more aligned with the needs and desires of the party in power than with the actual state. (My Exhibit A for that is that the state I live in, New Mexico, joined the Popular Vote Compact because it is thought to be good for the Democrats, even though, as a smaller state we benefit from the electoral college.)
For what it's worth, I was referring to everyone in the education business, and especially to ed school people, since that was in the C. Bradley Thompson quote in Keeping Up with the FITS, 5/20. The full statement:
"Without question, the principal transmission belt delivering Critical Race Theory directly into the bloodstream of America’s K-12 schools is through America’s teacher-training institutions."
How come? My guess, having been a public school teacher for many years:
People in the education business think that it is disproportionately responsible for what is good in America. In particular, it is the primary agent of upward mobility. They are very proud of that.
Because of that, they are also very aware of "the gap"--the fact that black students do substantially worse than white students. For more than 60 years, people in the ed schools have been coming up with ways to reduce or eliminate "the gap". But nothing has worked! It is pretty much as big now as it was then.
I cannot exaggerate how galling, how frustrating that is to people in the business. There is a desperate search for explanation--with only one constraint on any possible explanation. It must not "blame the victim". It must not "punch down".
But like "interstate commerce" in Constitutional Law, these turn out to include just about anything that involves black behavior. If you say black people could do things differently to close the gap, you are blaming them for present behavior, and since blacks are victims, that is a forbidden thought.
There is only one possibility left. It is whitey's fault. Even if there is no explicit or conscious racism, there must be such an overpowering system of white privilege that black students are condemned to do poorly in school. Only if that privilege is completely removed will schools be able to assume their natural and proper role as the great agent of upward mobility.
A lot of people in the business don't want to believe that, and some actually don't. But as long as any "blame the victim" explanation is taboo and "blame the victim" is interpreted strictly, YOU DON'T HAVE ANY CHOICE. You have to be some variety of "woke". I think one difference between today and, say, 40 years ago, is that people in the business are more sensitive to what might be considered "punching down" or "blaming the victim" and more concerned to not do it.
Which means that they cannot accept Glenn Loury or John McWhorter or Tom Sowell. They are color-blind when it comes to rejecting ideas that are outside their moral Overton Window.
It is "nice" to not blame the victim. It is "nice" to not punch down. But as long as you try to be nice that way, you are forced into a hateful ideology that requires racial discrimination to undo all that white privilege. Most teachers want to be nice.
(For logical completeness, one could consider a third possibility. Someone could believe that "the gap" is natural, because black students as a group are substantially less smart than white students. It won't go away any more than the gap between male and female basketball players will. But that is even more taboo.)
"The gap" is exactly why Wokeness is so strong - there must be some explanation. But the truth is unspeakable: a) Black sexual promiscuity (75% children born out of wedlock - up from 30% in the 60s); b) Black criminality - too many Blacks choose to be criminals; c) lower Black average IQ (get cancelled for talking of this truth).
The worst gap is the income gap - claimed to be caused by the education gap. Were Blacks more successful in closing the income gap, thru hard work and honest work, the other gaps would not matter. Blacks were closing that gap after WW II until affirmative action victimhood celebration weakened the Black communities.
Our society needs a colorblind way to help lower IQ, non-college students have good, middleclass jobs and lives.
c) If the IQ gap is as big as the human biodiversity people say (10 to 15 points), no amount of "hard work and honest work" is going to close the gap. Perhaps it can be shrunk. But if all gaps are immoral, because all groups are presumed equal, we are now forced to some sort of quota system--potentially covering everything.
Re your last paragraph: Given Arnold's "subsidize demand, restrict supply", it is probably impossible for jobs held by "lower IQ, non-college students" to pay enough to have a "good middle-class" level of consumption. Housing and medical care will just be too expensive. The second will be dealt with by subsidized insurance, but the first may be intractable.
I think the above is important because there is way too much, "Woke people are just horrible sick people" on the web. Some are. But most are decent people who want to lead good lives. At the risk of invoking Godwin's Law, they are like Germans who voted for the NSDAP in 1933. Few Germans wanted to build death camps for Jews or start a world war, but they were hopeless about the ability of any of the other parties to fix things. Woke people are similarly hopeless about the ability of anything less than "smashing white privilege" to fix things racially.
The sad thing is that we, at least to the degree humanly possible, had fixed it. I'm old enough to remember when the top-rated TV show in America was about a middle class black family for almost a decade. Then 2008 happened, and the Marxists saw the way to use race as a more durable substitute for class to implement their policies.
People still believe in the neocon era that education reform could solve all of our problems, including the gap. By 2008 it was obvious that wasn't going to work. We could either swallow The Bell Curve or turn to increasingly wacky explanations.
But we hadn't fixed it in terms of outcomes. Black kids still did considerably worse in school as white kids, even though white teachers were desperate to close the gap. Black adults still had worse jobs and incomes, even though discrimination against blacks has been illegal for over half a century. If it is natural for all groups to have equal outcomes but they don't, there has to be a reason. And if it is thoughtcrime to blame the victim ...
I think the best way to police secrecy in the government is to regularly draft a few hundred taxpayers (with some reasonable limits on mental competence) annually to serve one year terms on several super-jury-inquisitor-inspector teams with complete and unquestionable investigational police power over the federal bureaucracy. Maybe each state can contribute some like the Senate.
Kinda like the audit agency Kling proposes but even more powerful and without permanent staff.
Having limited terms is crucial. I'd support annual, but think 5 or 10 years are better - so there is time to become an expert in how the gov't employees "game" whatever paperwork metrics are used to watch them.
I also think ALL college-educated gov't workers should have a 10 year maximum "public service" contract. Term limits for bureaucrats, as a check to balance the Deep State.
The Null Hypothesis states that all of our marginal improvements on education in the modern era (say post universal nutrition and basic K-12 education) is subject to massive diminishing marginal returns.
It doesn't state that suddenly closing schools and having kids play on their phones while locked in their house for two years won't have an effect.
Freddie DeBoer makes the point that a HUGE benefit of modern schools, for poor kids, is that the school is often a far more stable & safe environment than their homes, where there are more drugs & violence. This truth remains underdiscussed.
Re: "So, if you’re a teacher and you can’t close the gap and you refuse to blame genes or culture within the black population, you have to blame the culture at large. Hence you embrace CRT."
An alternative for teachers:
Blame the culture at large, especially the culture of race on the brain. Strive to treat every pupil as an individual: Who are you? What makes you tick? What will help you stand on your own two feet? Take the MLK train to the end of the line.
An alternative for teenagers/families/policy-makers:
Blame the one-size-fits-all curriculum and the lack of competition on the supply side of education. Advocate radical vouchers redeemable also for apprenticeships, training programs, internships at firms/orgs.
In the 1980s/1990s it was still acceptable to "Blame the Victim". This didn't close the gap.
People stopped blaming the victim because it doesn't work. If simply being tough on blacks would raise their IQ we would do it. Instilling discipline and civility is a separate issue.
In fact, it's pretty cruel to blame the victim if they truly can't achieve the objective you demand they achieve. All it results in is a lot of unnecessary misery on the part of the person unable to achieve and the people trying to help them achieve.
The real issue is that society can't admit that most people just aren't that necessary anymore. The Bell Curve is still depressing even if you take out the chapter on race. Not only will all those laid off manufacturing workers not be able to learn to code, neither will their children.
My broad comment is that you don't have to believe that education is useless to think that marginal education dollars are wasted. Notwithstanding the problems of government run schools, they clearly expose most students to vastly more math and reading than they would get without school. Taking that away isn't a marginal intervention. Relatedly, the summer slide, where kids forget much of what they've learned, is well documented. That's another non-marginal intervention.
So can we have a weak, semi-strong, and strong versions of the (Kling) null hypothesis?
Weak: increasing learning on the margin is possible, but only for very expensive and extensive interventions.
Semi-strong: scaled educational interventions on the margin do not increase learning.
Strong: scaled educational interventions do not increase average learning.
The summer slide is very true. But it is not unique to summer. It is actually a special case of the ten-week slide. By the time kids get to high school (and often middle school), they are in classes that they have little inherent interest in. They want to pass, or even to get good grades, so they memorize for tests and projects. But then their knowledge "decays" (in ed jargon) if they don't use it after that. One of the thing adults don't realize about high school is that courses are organized in 2-4 week units. Once the class finishes a unit, the information in it is put in the rear view mirror. A student rarely encounters it again. After 10 weeks, about as much is forgotten as over a 10 week summer.
On the audit agency:
There is no solution other than going back to the "spoils system" where the incoming President can fire everyone in the executive branch. It is the only way to truly make the administrative state responsive to the voters.
Another good option might be to recognize the administrative state was a mistake, and stop having one. Might not happen in my lifetime, but if, say, a president were to fire everyone in the branch and then only rehire for 80% of the positions and shutter some programs, that would be a good start. If he could get the incoming congress to remove certain functions that are actually legally mandated but obsolete that would help as well.
If austerity is coming, it might be time to whisper this idea into a few ears.
No President can do that- 95% of the executive branch can't be fired by the executive in charge. He is even limited in organizing. Now, the present SCOTUS might be amenable to allowing a President to just act under what used to be his Constitutional powers to run the executive branch, but I doubt it.
Congress could pass plenty of statues to reform civil service employment law.
You misspelled "won't".
Agree. What mechanisms prevent Congress from messing with government employees? Is it the votes? Is it the plum jobs for friends and relatives? Is it fright over being held responsible for some disaster?
All of the above. The Democrats, obviously, will never agree to allow any turnover in the civilian employment of the US government- those employees are 70-30 or greater Democrats. The Republicans will be split because a lot of their family and friends work either directly for or one degree removed, for the US government.
The President can't do it.
But Congress can defund each and every Federal gov't bureaucracy - thru the power of the purse.
They should make huge cuts, based on the need to "fight inflation".
10 year term limits on Federal gov't employment would also be a good idea.
Federal pensions are also far too high ...
Sorry, I wasn’t clear I was building on your idea. Fire (nearly) everyone, but then not backfill all the positions.
A bill revoking union negotiating within the federal government might help with that, too? It still is not obvious to me how the audit agency solves the problems as they stand, let alone the new problems it would face.