Phil Tetlock has a compatible view, which is that experts as such are relatively inaccurate forecasters, while what he calls "Superforecasters" (educated lay people) acting in groups tend to be more accurate forecasters because they consider a wider variety of information sources and viewpoints and pool their perspectives into a consensu…
Phil Tetlock has a compatible view, which is that experts as such are relatively inaccurate forecasters, while what he calls "Superforecasters" (educated lay people) acting in groups tend to be more accurate forecasters because they consider a wider variety of information sources and viewpoints and pool their perspectives into a consensus.
Frank Diebold (U. Penn.) has a similar view about judgmental forecasts, for example, economists forecasting next year's GDP growth. He has shown empirically and theoretically that consensus forecasts tend to be more accurate over time than any individual's forecasts.
Phil Tetlock has a compatible view, which is that experts as such are relatively inaccurate forecasters, while what he calls "Superforecasters" (educated lay people) acting in groups tend to be more accurate forecasters because they consider a wider variety of information sources and viewpoints and pool their perspectives into a consensus.
Frank Diebold (U. Penn.) has a similar view about judgmental forecasts, for example, economists forecasting next year's GDP growth. He has shown empirically and theoretically that consensus forecasts tend to be more accurate over time than any individual's forecasts.