To the extent that this is happening (and I agree that it is), it has very troubling implications. I am reminded of an essay by historian Steve Davies on what can happen if multiple extremist groups are not effectively countered by moderate majorities. It concludes:
<i>"What should we learn from this analysis? The first thing is that a stable and successful order can break down very swiftly and suddenly. The second is that the crucial thing is the overall institutional environment. If this no longer penalizes bigoted idiots (or trolls) then a very destructive dynamic can arise. Because this leads to a tipping point effect you can rapidly move from a stable and peaceful condition to one of conflict, with only a small minority actually wanting that outcome.
The main lesson otherwise is this. The great majority must hold fast to a humane position, in personal relations or speech, and organizing among themselves, to counteract the rise of politicized bigotry in all its forms. This is not easy but the cost of not doing it can be very high."</i>
Has the Median Voter Theorem been invalidated? So long as there's a big enough chunk of voters who are put off by the extremes of both sides, won't the center-left have the upper hand in the long run, regardless of how deep their intellectual bench is?
Your once wrote an essay (probably several) on how media is relying more on emotional manipulation and cheap dopamine hits to attract readers/viewers. The same seem to be true for politics- political parties use emotional manipulation and cheap dopamine hits to attract voters. If you define the "center" as people who try and work past the manipulation and better understand issue (to varying degrees of success) then the center is weak because their method of engagement is usually ignored by the political parties.
And since these manipulative tactics tend to polarize people against each other, if you define the "center" as people who refuse to polarize against each other then the center is still very weak. The "You're either with us or against us" strategy has defined the center as everyone's enemy.
For the same reason, the center is still weak if you define "center" as "People who accept ideas from both parties as valid". The message from both parties is you're either *completely* with us or *completely* against us. Dissension is not tolerated.
We've allowed our political parties to pitch to our basest instincts instead of insisting that they hold themselves to a higher standard. We've allowed power as a weapon to eclipse governance. And now here we are.
I would draw a contrast between the radical right over the last four years and the radical left now. Most Republican Congressional leaders have been solidly in the center-right zone, often clashing with the Trumpist faction. In contrast, most Democratic Congressional leaders are pandering to the radical left. Very few outspoken Democrats in Congress have a good argument to represent the center-left zone: Manchin most notably, and some others like Sinema who are not willing to dynamite the existing structures in the name of fighting structural racism.
While the center-right lost the presidential election in 2016, they maintained a strong position in Congress. I do not see that as being the case for the center-left in 2020.
Democratic fascists won the election - Deep State Democrats in govt willing to commit crimes to stop Trump and instead working with, by, and for Big Business, with Big Tech assist. Fascism=govt+business vs the public good. Bernie was Usefully Idiotic when he claimed that "Democratic Socialism" would be good; but Trump was never close to being Hitler in thought or deed, altho he used different populist language in a similarly effective manner.
Yes, the "Center Left" opposed to fascism lost - but they've been intermittently impotent until Trump won, when they accepted intellectual castration to avoid any truth that might be seen as Trump positive. Until moderate Democrats have the balls, or the guts, to call out and stop bad actions by Democrats, of course they'll fail to win against Dems who carry out bad actions successfully.
America has four types of partisan political Truth:
Truth good for Dems; Truth good for Reps;
Truth bad for Dems; Truth bad for Reps.
The Dem media, and academia, emphasize the good for Dems, and the bad for Reps - especially trying to frame all news that is discussed to be in those terms. There are so many Fake News bad for Reps incidents used to fan outrage, but virtually none of center left are complaining about them. Like the recent autopsy report of Officer Sicknick, noting he did NOT die from any head trauma from protesters - either the NYT or the two Secret Police sources for NYT fire extinguishers were lying, and the Times printed the Fake News lies that so many believed. Especially elite; perhaps most especially the gullible center left.
Republicans were never like the Nazis -- but today's Democrats are. "Democratic Party fascism" won ... you better get used to the idea.
Which no elites want to believe, and they're all smart enough to come up with reasons to disbelieve it, even if it's true. This truth will, unfortunately, be seen in ever increasing fascist actions, like the US Post Office spying on Trump Supporters (see @LeeSmithDC).
What can be done? Not much, individually; maybe move to Slovakia (or Hungary, Rod Dreher is meeting ex-pats happy there). Hopefully Arnold's substack and Fantasy Intellectuals, combined in spontaneous orders with others wanting better elite intellectuals, can amplify a stronger truth signal to separate out from so much Fake News noise. It's more worth a shot at saving American ideals than anything else I know.
Our political system is based on compromise. The center left have had enormous leverage and influence, they've used it, they've chosen compromises. But they are not the dominant force in the current Presidential Administration or in the ruling Democratic Party. Center left intellectuals strongly pushed against Trump and against Bernie and they won that. Center left intellectuals oppose Trump and the right more than the oppose the progressive left. They won that. The center left got most of what they want, but not everything.
These political categories are often confusing. Is Jeff Bezos center left or hard left? He's had enormous amounts of influence and leverage. Bezos has heavily pushed the $15/hr minimum wage. Is that a center left or hard left policy? I suspect figures like Bezos and a lot of corporations supported the hard left over what Kling is calling the center left.
I've heard the Republican Party governs to the left of their voter base and the Democratic Party also governs to the left of their voter base; this phenomena is due to the left-ward influence of think tanks, academics, and donors.
The conservative movement has been defeated. We have lost most, if not all, of society’s major social, cultural, and governmental institutions. What’s left to conserve? No one has a strategy for reversing recent trends or recovering these institutions for conservatives.
The Democratic Party is two parties, with the socialists in ascendency. The moderate wing is in dying because the few remaining centrist Democrats have no way to stop the leftward drift of their Party. Two political parties, both in disarray.
To the extent that this is happening (and I agree that it is), it has very troubling implications. I am reminded of an essay by historian Steve Davies on what can happen if multiple extremist groups are not effectively countered by moderate majorities. It concludes:
<i>"What should we learn from this analysis? The first thing is that a stable and successful order can break down very swiftly and suddenly. The second is that the crucial thing is the overall institutional environment. If this no longer penalizes bigoted idiots (or trolls) then a very destructive dynamic can arise. Because this leads to a tipping point effect you can rapidly move from a stable and peaceful condition to one of conflict, with only a small minority actually wanting that outcome.
The main lesson otherwise is this. The great majority must hold fast to a humane position, in personal relations or speech, and organizing among themselves, to counteract the rise of politicized bigotry in all its forms. This is not easy but the cost of not doing it can be very high."</i>
Full essay here:
https://www.aier.org/article/multiethnic-societies-can-be-stable-peaceful-and-prosperous/
Has the Median Voter Theorem been invalidated? So long as there's a big enough chunk of voters who are put off by the extremes of both sides, won't the center-left have the upper hand in the long run, regardless of how deep their intellectual bench is?
Your once wrote an essay (probably several) on how media is relying more on emotional manipulation and cheap dopamine hits to attract readers/viewers. The same seem to be true for politics- political parties use emotional manipulation and cheap dopamine hits to attract voters. If you define the "center" as people who try and work past the manipulation and better understand issue (to varying degrees of success) then the center is weak because their method of engagement is usually ignored by the political parties.
And since these manipulative tactics tend to polarize people against each other, if you define the "center" as people who refuse to polarize against each other then the center is still very weak. The "You're either with us or against us" strategy has defined the center as everyone's enemy.
For the same reason, the center is still weak if you define "center" as "People who accept ideas from both parties as valid". The message from both parties is you're either *completely* with us or *completely* against us. Dissension is not tolerated.
We've allowed our political parties to pitch to our basest instincts instead of insisting that they hold themselves to a higher standard. We've allowed power as a weapon to eclipse governance. And now here we are.
I would draw a contrast between the radical right over the last four years and the radical left now. Most Republican Congressional leaders have been solidly in the center-right zone, often clashing with the Trumpist faction. In contrast, most Democratic Congressional leaders are pandering to the radical left. Very few outspoken Democrats in Congress have a good argument to represent the center-left zone: Manchin most notably, and some others like Sinema who are not willing to dynamite the existing structures in the name of fighting structural racism.
While the center-right lost the presidential election in 2016, they maintained a strong position in Congress. I do not see that as being the case for the center-left in 2020.
Democratic fascists won the election - Deep State Democrats in govt willing to commit crimes to stop Trump and instead working with, by, and for Big Business, with Big Tech assist. Fascism=govt+business vs the public good. Bernie was Usefully Idiotic when he claimed that "Democratic Socialism" would be good; but Trump was never close to being Hitler in thought or deed, altho he used different populist language in a similarly effective manner.
Yes, the "Center Left" opposed to fascism lost - but they've been intermittently impotent until Trump won, when they accepted intellectual castration to avoid any truth that might be seen as Trump positive. Until moderate Democrats have the balls, or the guts, to call out and stop bad actions by Democrats, of course they'll fail to win against Dems who carry out bad actions successfully.
America has four types of partisan political Truth:
Truth good for Dems; Truth good for Reps;
Truth bad for Dems; Truth bad for Reps.
The Dem media, and academia, emphasize the good for Dems, and the bad for Reps - especially trying to frame all news that is discussed to be in those terms. There are so many Fake News bad for Reps incidents used to fan outrage, but virtually none of center left are complaining about them. Like the recent autopsy report of Officer Sicknick, noting he did NOT die from any head trauma from protesters - either the NYT or the two Secret Police sources for NYT fire extinguishers were lying, and the Times printed the Fake News lies that so many believed. Especially elite; perhaps most especially the gullible center left.
Republicans were never like the Nazis -- but today's Democrats are. "Democratic Party fascism" won ... you better get used to the idea.
Which no elites want to believe, and they're all smart enough to come up with reasons to disbelieve it, even if it's true. This truth will, unfortunately, be seen in ever increasing fascist actions, like the US Post Office spying on Trump Supporters (see @LeeSmithDC).
What can be done? Not much, individually; maybe move to Slovakia (or Hungary, Rod Dreher is meeting ex-pats happy there). Hopefully Arnold's substack and Fantasy Intellectuals, combined in spontaneous orders with others wanting better elite intellectuals, can amplify a stronger truth signal to separate out from so much Fake News noise. It's more worth a shot at saving American ideals than anything else I know.
Our political system is based on compromise. The center left have had enormous leverage and influence, they've used it, they've chosen compromises. But they are not the dominant force in the current Presidential Administration or in the ruling Democratic Party. Center left intellectuals strongly pushed against Trump and against Bernie and they won that. Center left intellectuals oppose Trump and the right more than the oppose the progressive left. They won that. The center left got most of what they want, but not everything.
These political categories are often confusing. Is Jeff Bezos center left or hard left? He's had enormous amounts of influence and leverage. Bezos has heavily pushed the $15/hr minimum wage. Is that a center left or hard left policy? I suspect figures like Bezos and a lot of corporations supported the hard left over what Kling is calling the center left.
I've heard the Republican Party governs to the left of their voter base and the Democratic Party also governs to the left of their voter base; this phenomena is due to the left-ward influence of think tanks, academics, and donors.
The conservative movement has been defeated. We have lost most, if not all, of society’s major social, cultural, and governmental institutions. What’s left to conserve? No one has a strategy for reversing recent trends or recovering these institutions for conservatives.
The Democratic Party is two parties, with the socialists in ascendency. The moderate wing is in dying because the few remaining centrist Democrats have no way to stop the leftward drift of their Party. Two political parties, both in disarray.
"Scott Anderson" should be Scott Alexander.