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Apr 3, 2022Liked by Arnold Kling

My experienced advice: Don't delay living the life you want waiting to figure out what career or advocation you want.

My primary goal in growing up was to be married and have children. So I started that journey in my early 20s and it was the best decision I ever made.

As for a career or advocation. First I wanted to be a research engineer. Then I realized that my idea of research was more akin to being a lab tech. I would have been a great lab tech but the pay was less than I desired. So to make money I did commercial software development until the stress of the business (dotcom bubble and crash) turned me off.

I went to night school and got an MBA to give me a path out of the programming grind. In the meantime I took on software contracting assignments and stumbled into a niche where I have considerable project autonomy without the stress of delivery deadlines, and the pay is good and the hours flexible.

So I am still writing software, but on my terms. I justify the MBA as me purchasing an option that I never cashed (I also enjoyed the experience). The engineering education was very helpful in training me how to solve complex problems, and it gave me the introduction to programming that became my advocation.

But Fluid Dynamics and Thermo and Heat Transfer? Nah, I really haven't made use of those courses, except to have an analytical insight on those concepts that most people only possess intuitively.

Lastly, there is a big difference between the abstract notion of the job and the hard realities of what a job actually entails. In my MBA I emphasized entrepreneurship and venture investment. Eventually I figured out my personal risk profile makes me completely unfit for dealing with financial risk. Lacking a trust fund to ensure me a regular income, I never was going to be comfortable pursing opportunities that paid little up front with a chance of a big payout later.

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So true. Economics requires such wonderful talents. Use them well. And especially, aim "to end up as a grandparent.

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Ouch! Now you tell me!

In truth, I have been a "student" of economics through my entire adult life, and crossed paths with Arnold when we both were at the Fed. I also went to "Wall Street," albeit smaller investment firms in the Washington DC area and have made a career of investing. It's been very gratifying although the particular path I took wasn't as financially rewarding as other paths I might've taken.

My best, although most difficult, professor in grad school was Sandy Grossman. Although he used a lot of math, he also imparted many insights that ricochet in my mind even now, for example, how the profit motive works in competitive markets and how limited information affects decision making.

I agree with Arnold's reading recommendations - they are classic books for investment decision-making. I would add Robert Shiller's "Irrational Exuberance," Jerome Groopman's "How Doctors Think," which is a book about decision-making with very limited information and many applications to investing (as well as medicine), and Matt Ridley's "The Rational Optimist," a grand vision of human innovation and antidote to the daily grind of pessimistic reporting about current events.

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On the basis of the failed experiences of my two American grandchildren (raised by rich professional parents and indoctrinated by expensive Cal. private schools and Mass. old colleges against liberal principles), I'm advising my 13-year old Chilean grandson to focus on

--by 18, to understand what life is about and the menu of alternative lives you may have while you prepare to choose;

--by 22, to know enough about human history, master some basic skills, and develop your personality to be ready for the next and final step,

--by 25, to be ready to choose by yourself and enjoy the life you have chosen (hope for the best but be prepared for the worst).

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Doctoral programs in economics have changed quite a lot since the 1970s. Many are now excellent preparation for very practical (and well compensated) careers in industry, in addition to careers in government or academia. Almost all are much more empirically focused. I would encourage young economics majors to take courses outside of economics, but not to give up on the idea of graduate studies in the field. And for me at least, being a professor is really fun.

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If you don't mind sharing, what advice would you provide someone who's taken the autodidactic approach to econ study and has sometimes considered enrolling in a masters degree from someplace like GMU?

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It is always hard to tell what will be useful in the future and what won't. Basic math knowledge helps a lot but I don't mean just learning a few models but real math to make the models necessary for critical thinking.

One big advantage of a Ph.D. is not having to take BS from academics and often being able to see where their thinking is just PC nonsense. I work in environmental areas and having a strong math background allows me to "read" math models and see where "activist junk scientists" have buried known false assumptions in their math to give regulators and bureaucrats the answers they want.

For me, the big advantage was avoiding the draft and the Vietnam War by working on the very slow subject of solid state diffusion of gases slowly moving through metals for my thesis. I also had a wonderful time of '60s in Berkeley and had a high paying fellowship along with an effective draft exemption.

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I would say that if you are an econ major who is great at math, study math instead. Study finance on the side.

On the family issue- I couldn't agree more- I took a different path and regret it every single day.

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