Food for thought on Yellow Ribbonism: another example of this is in the culture of policing, crime and punishment. In the UK at least, there has been a great shift (including in resource-allocation) from an emphasis on catching criminals to one of sympathising with (and 'counselling' of) victims.
Agreed. People way under estimate the cost of punishment problem, and don't hold their governments accountable for abdicating their duty to punish offenders. So much of our current political issues seem to go away when you can rely on "If people break the law, we catch them and keep them from doing it again."
MAGA is a cult of personality. The Swiftian notion of inability to reason these people out of a position they didn't reason themselves into fits. It won't go away until he goes away.
I imagine you know, but Tie a Yellow Ribbon was a Vietnam era song that predates the Iran hostages. The song wasn't about the hostages or soldiers themselves, it was about the intent of the person being returned to. Like other songs, the ideas got twisted by some popular cultural trend.
From the first two lines of the song, "I'm coming home, I've done my time / Now I've got to know what is and isn't mine" and a line later in the song ("I'm really still in prison, and my love she holds the key") I always assumed it was about a convict returning home in some shame, hoping for acceptance but, if it wasn't there, accepting that ("I'll stay on the bus, forget about us, put the blame on me").
I never understood it to be about a soldier returning home.
You have the academic or intellectual grasp of Trump, which is like a tourist visiting a big city, like Chicago, and saying "The city was wonderful, I stayed at a lovely hotel on Michigan Avenue, I didn't once observe any crime." No, and that is the usual experience of tourists. Probably why you don't understand that Trump articulates things that, at least for some people, are profoundly important. You critique his delivery, you analyze his style, I don't think you hear the words.
Site desperately needs a down-vote for folly like this.
President Trump put rocket man in a bottle, sailed the fleet through the straits to protect Taiwan, sent missiles to Poland to block puny Putin, and blocked illegals here. The job will be completed in 3024. Let the American Restoration begin!
Not sure if I like "current things" here. There's already enough hot takes and outrage online. I agree with Arnold's opinions on current events, but I don't come to "In My Tribe" for what Tyler Cowen calls "mood affiliation". I'd prefer to be challenged to take a more objective and analytic view of controversies, sort of like we get usually get in Arnold's usual thoughtful essays and books.
Ron DeSantis never articulated what he would do as president, only what he did in Florida.
What's his plan for school choice nationally? I never heard it.
Covid? Thanks but its over.
The #1 political issue today is abortion. DeSantis passed a six week ban he doesn't even believe in and didn't need to pass. That shows a level of incompetence that I think is disqualifying.
Trump is probably the only GOP candidate that can credibly convince people he doesn't want to pass laws on abortion.
What I'm continually reminded of with Trump is he's the only one willing to just do what's actually popular, regardless of whether it's part of the GOP ideology. Abortion isn't popular, drop it. Iraq was a mistake, admit it. Immigration is a disaster, call it out and don't give a shit if people call you racist. Entitlements are popular, don't waste political capital trying and failing to cut them.
What's is DeSantis's plan on foreign policy? I remember him being against Ukraine war and then flip flopping 24 hours later when his donors complained. You don't need a foreign policy as governor, but you do as president.
It seems to me that he kind of got bullied into running for President without really wanting to be president or knowing what he would do if he won. State issues don't necessarily translate to national issues. His debate with Gavin Newsome shows he was probably better off as a Governor.
"Haley has 99 percent of the enemies that Trump has."
I don't buy this. I would have been fine with DeSantis, but there is no way in hell I'm ever going to the a GOPe candidate. What did electing the Bush's of the world get us?
Haley is going to be the candidate that wants to start wars, wants to cut SS & Medicare, wants to let immigrants in, and wants a national abortion ban. That "popularity" is going to evaporate on contact.
Good insight on the DeSantis campaign. His response to Covid elevated his profile among Conservatives but that is not what defined him in the public eye. Rather it was his cultural war with Disney and Florida progressives. I personally favor what DeSantis did so I have no criticism there. What I perceived is DeSantis did not want to be pigeon-holed as a cultural warrior, especially a right-wing one, but as you write, his campaign failed to identify presidential issues and policies where a leader like DeSantis would make a difference.
Something else to consider. DeSantis made his sales pitch in Iowa and I am confident it was a good one. And Yet Trump who has no sales pitch other than he's Trump dominated the caucus. I can't be too critical of DeSantis as I don't think anyone can compete in a Republican party popularity contest against Trump. This makes no sense. It is illogical. And yet it is. Thus it was wise for DeSantis to suspend his campaign and wait for Trump fever to end, it will end eventually. Just not soon enough.
I'm surprised his advisors didn't realize ordinary people don't want to hear about Covid ad infinitum. It was a crazy event, maybe the most interesting event in some younger people's lives so far and if they're lucky it will never be succeeded - but it is a dreary topic nonetheless. And living through it was boring when it wasn't genuinely sad.
The woman actually criticized Desantis during a debate for "receiving praise" for conservation of the Everglades. Talk about stupid. Anyone who knows anything about Florida, knows there is wide support for conservation there, D and R. Check out the political stance of Ding Darling if you doubt the conservatism that is conservation. A fair amount of recent enviro funding was overseen by Jeb Bush. It is huge like a western state and while people may think it's all condos - it's very much not. It's utterly unique in its flora and fauna ... To imagine that rich people only want to hear that you are into destroying nature, jeez. Ditto the country at large.
One of Desantis' recent inititiatives, or at least something he signed off on, was the radical notion of preserving ag land!
I'm sorry - here I'll happily reveal my own bias in the spirit of the post - I was unlikely to vote for an Indian woman for president. But I'm not steadfast on that sort of thing. While it feels decidedly like voting for Trump, one of those end-times signs, I might have shifted if she said any of the right things (as Trump occasionally does). But she seems like the dumb GOP careerist version of Kamala Harris.
And an Indian woman whose family arrived in 1969, telling America that she hates America - which is what being anti-preservation is - no thanks.
Yes, that was mean. I'm sure she made excellent grades in school.
But what she said was disrespectful and nasty to all the people of both parties who care about land protection, water quality and wildlife and plant diversity.
DeSantis' presidential campaign could probably have been predicted from his campaign for governor in 2018 which he nearly lost to a crack smoking Democrat. I like the guy a lot and, if I had a magic wand and could simply make it happen, he is the person I would put in the White House but he is a terrible retail politician. Had DeSantis won the nomination (or Haley), the election would already be over since neither DeSantis nor Haley can win WI, MI, or PA even in a fair election- those states are pretty deeply blue at the national office level- Trump is the only GOP candidate that has won any of those three in the last 35 years. Like him or hate him, Trump brings in new voters to the the top of the GOP ticket, at the cost of losing some in the more reddish states like Arizona, Georgia, Texas, and North Carolina.
Finally, as I will point out for the 100th time, if Trump hadn't run in 2016, we would now be in year 8 of the Hillary Clinton administration with Tim Kaine a basic shoo-in for taking office next year. The demographics of the country have given the Democrats an electoral lock that can only be picked by a candidate whose main appeal isn't to the voters for McCain and Romney in 2008 and 2012. In any case, it simply doesn't matter who the GOP nominates- mail-in-voting has made the GOP even more unelectable since 2018- the Democrats are in the process right now of perfecting the art right down to the congressional district level as evidenced by the GOP's lousy mid-term performance. Next November, the Democrats will almost certainly retake the House and might hold onto the Senate even though the traditional math says they shouldn't be able to win either one.
Whatever desantis natural charisma or lack thereof, he choose to have his campaign run by ex Ted Cruz losers. It shows an incredible lack of foresight.
And yes, it puts me very much in mind of a running thing with me - my forever attempting to do something inappropriate with a tool, banging on a recalcitrant screw with the butt of the screwdriver, or using pliers where a wrench is needed, hammering on the wings of a tight pvc cap until they break. Etc.
Here is my sermon for today. “Why is defeating Donald Trump so hard?”
Trump is (partly) a symptom and warning that our country is unhealthy. Unhealthy at many levels, and in many places, in ways that are difficult, and--probably and currently--impossible to fix.
But I am not a pessimist. This is no time to give up.
The best thing that I can do in this situation is to first get my family to a safe place and then resume my cadence. Then, I might ask “What would Milton Friedman do?” He would say to have our ideas ready; to write our books if they aren’t already written; to have done our homework; for when the next crisis comes, as it ALWAYS does, to be ready for it. Be ready with positive suggestions and solutions when to opportunity emerges. The best ideas on hand, when the crisis comes will determine the outcome.
Heed the words of Brian Klaus, author of Fluke, and Econtalk guest this week. Why were Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombed? It was a fluke. See excerpt below.
In analogy, in order to save our city, we need to have our cloud in place when that bomber goes up. We need to have Stimson in position when targeting decisions are made. That is how life is. Part of the reason we exist is because atrocious events have occurred. We exist BECAUSE others have died. Another crisis will come. Be ready. Until then, maintain your cadence.
“Russ Roberts: And now, Brian. You open your book with two remarkable stories. One is about Henry Stimson, and one is about yourself. Let's start with the Stimson story and how it illustrates the idea behind your book.
“Brian Klaas: Yeah. So, the Stimson story starts with a vacation in 1926 to Kyoto, Japan, and it's a couple, Mr. and Mrs. H.L Stimson, who go on this vacation and just fall in love with the city. And, this is relevant, because 19 years later, the husband in the couple, Henry Stimson, ends up being America's Secretary of War, who's overseeing the Targeting Committee, which is tasked with deciding where to drop the first atomic bomb to end World War II. And, all of the generals, all the people on the Targeting Committee, basically agree that Kyoto should be destroyed, but Stimson and his wife like Kyoto. So, twice, he intervenes with President Truman to get Kyoto taken off the targeting list.
“And so the reason why--the immediate reason why--the first bomb was dropped in Hiroshima is effectively because a couple that happened to be in the right place and right time 19 years later, took a vacation there in 1926.
“And, the reason I opened the book with that is because I think it illustrates how very small changes--decisions about where to vacation two decades earlier--can cause the deaths of a hundred thousand people in one city rather than another.
“And, that's the idea behind the book: is that there's a lot of randomness, chance, chaos, and contingency that diverts our lives and our societies more than we often think it does.
“Russ Roberts: And, for completeness, because I found this also quite interesting, the targeting of Nagasaki, the second city that the atomic bomb was dropped on, also had a fluke aspect to it.
“Brian Klaas: Yeah. So, this is where the other city that was chosen for the bombing on August 9th, 1945, it was called Kokura. And, the reason why the bomb ended up being dropped on Nagasaki instead was because of brief cloud cover over Kokura.
So, they thought there were forecasted clear skies. They sent the bomber up. These brief clouds flit across at just the right time. It obscures the bomb site, and they don't want to accidentally drop the second atomic bomb in history not on the target. So, they decide to go to Nagasaki instead. And so, even in Japan to this day, people say 'Kokura's luck' refers to unknowingly escaping disaster.
“And this is--one of the other themes in Fluke is that we often think about the sort of chance, contingent events that divert our lives or our societies, a lot of the time, we're unaware of them. And, in Kokura, they would not have been aware, until much later, that their city was almost incinerated, except for a cloud.“
FDR could not be defeated either. He had to die in office. Trump is the FDR of the Republican party. Crazy thing, Trump is not a Republican. That is how messed up American party politics are.
I am not studied enough to understand the failure of the Republican Party to mount a challenge to FDR. I know the war changed the politics to FDR's favor. But why during the depression did FDR stay popular? I suspect it was because the media treated FDR and his policies very favorably and the Republicans were not able to coordinate a popular message.
FDR had weekly radio broadcasts, when radio was NEW. He could, and did, talk to the normal working man about problems and how he was going to solve them. His solutions weren't so different from Hoover's (R), nor did they work so well (too socialistic), but FDR was clearly on the side of workers, and unions. Republicans then were snobs -- like many are still, but the most snobbish have become Dems.
FDR was basically what passed for "patrician" in America. And I think that was part of his appeal actually, especially as he had a naturally friendly, casual manner that made the noblesse oblige go down easy.
Totally cribbing from Power Broker but I think of the Republicans of New York state represented ... upstate New York burghers and rural property owners, farmers? Whereas Dems I associate with NYC. I don't know how FDR came to his politics though.
Yea, something about that line coming from Arnold made me smile hugely. Those familiar with Pratchett's work will understand why my thoughts immediately went to Genghis Cohen and the Silver Horde :D
The books are pulp, but first-rate pulp, fast & exciting, with excellent world building. You can get all of the ERH ones for close to free on Amazon Kindle. There were also a number of follow-on novels, of variable quality, started by L Sprague de Camp, who consulted on the first movie. I should change my avi to the Wolf Witch for this reply.
I think a good way to get the essence of a campaign is the political ads they run.
During the mid-terms 90%+ of the ads I saw were about abortion.
All of the Nikki Haley ads I see say that Trump will be "too distracted" by court battles to beat Biden. They also *brag* that since the liberal media is against Trump he won't be able to win.
The idea that someone might be reject and want to fight law-fare against political opponents and hostile media companies just doesn't cross Haley's mind.
"We can't beat the left, all we can do is surrender to them on anything that matters in the hopes of winning elections so that I can enrich myself and have a little power."
The virtue and value of Trump (for the most part) is that he is willing to defend what is declared indefensible. Everybody else tries to meet the opposition half-way or accommodate the criticism. Everybody else cedes ground from the start.
Engaging topic, and I think I agree with it? But I want to push back against the rest of the commenters that I’m afraid that this amount of emotionality (even if I agree with it!) may be a path to punditry. It may get you more clicks/subs/etc, but it’s not a recipe for clear thinking.
I’ve long appreciated your policy of writing posts and letting them “steep” for a few days before posting them. As a reader, I’m always tantalizingly curious about what you leave on the cutting room floor, but as a thinker, I realize that ideas are better after a round of clear-headed editing.
On the other hand, transparency of opinion lets us see how bad of thinking is out there that we have to eventually find a way to fix if we want this world to be less insane some day.
Freedom of the seas might not be enforceable any longer. Basic missiles/drones and targeting technology seems to have gotten a magnitude cheaper in the last 30 years (except for the ones the US military buys at a million dollars a pop). The Houthis are probably targeting ships with missiles that cost them a few thousand dollars to make/buy which have to be shot down by missiles the U.S. Navy pays a million dollars per shot. I can't make this math work, and this leaves as the only other option being boots on the ground in Yemen to stop them, which might still not work.
I saw a recent article (no idea where) about an anti-missile laser doing really well in testing. I remember it as being British, but that might be wrong. The sense I got was “time to put a prototype on a real combat ship.” Of course, weather must be a bitch for it. I imagine it doesn’t work in fog or heavy rain. And this is the ocean we are talking about.
Nice point about freedom of the seas being something that even a very reduced US military should defend. I something’s think about what consistent policy the US could have that would be between fighting every fight everywhere, if only by proxy (the Cold War norm) and making the Atlantic and Pacific our moat. A few principles could loom large in such a consistent policy:
- freedom of navigation
- don’t actually invade our friends who have coasts that we can park aircraft carriers next to
- we promise to obliterate anyone who uses nukes
- something something about bioengineering contagious disease
Beyond specific details I agree or disagree, we really need retired people to speak up.People on their careers are almost never independent.
A reserve army of retired Sages is the only possible source of sincere advice in this Age without nobility. To some extent capitalism entangle each other too much to be able to be sincere.
1. Yellow-ribbonism just seems like a subset of the broader 'feminization of culture.' But, to a hammer, everything is a nail.
2. I think your read on Trump, Haley et al is pretty off. Politics is largely a charisma game, and Ronnie D doesn't have it. Trump does. Vivek does, and if he had more media time, he would be vastly more popular because his message is closer to the zeitgeist. Haley is in fact an establishment candidate (backed by Trump's enemies, like Reid Hoffman, etc.) and will do about as well as Romney, Ryan, and Jeb, which is to say, not very well.
Recall that Trump turned out the most votes in history, in the middle of a pandemic. It still didn't matter. Irrespective of 'stop the steal,' there is no dispute at all that Biden carried the day on the back of 'mail-in balloting.' Mail-ins reflect a different sort of groundgame where Dems have a major structural advantage: density. You can "harvest" more votes in a single urban tower in one afternoon, then a GOP groundgame could "harvest" in the 'burbs in a month. I would go so far as to suggest that unless/until mail-in voting or vote harvesting is uniformly illegal or curtailed, GOP will never win another national election again.
I like reading your takes. Even your "not sure I should post" takes have a lot of sense and offer good food for thought.
Food for thought on Yellow Ribbonism: another example of this is in the culture of policing, crime and punishment. In the UK at least, there has been a great shift (including in resource-allocation) from an emphasis on catching criminals to one of sympathising with (and 'counselling' of) victims.
Agreed. People way under estimate the cost of punishment problem, and don't hold their governments accountable for abdicating their duty to punish offenders. So much of our current political issues seem to go away when you can rely on "If people break the law, we catch them and keep them from doing it again."
Why do we shield our fellow man from justice? For the same reason we shield our children from justice.
https://open.substack.com/pub/scottgibb/p/why-do-we-shield-our-fellow-man-from?r=nb3bl&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcome=true
I vote for more of these. It’s not a time to be shy.
Beware the law of unintended consequences.
Yessir--keep bringing it.
I abstain from voting.
MAGA is a cult of personality. The Swiftian notion of inability to reason these people out of a position they didn't reason themselves into fits. It won't go away until he goes away.
I imagine you know, but Tie a Yellow Ribbon was a Vietnam era song that predates the Iran hostages. The song wasn't about the hostages or soldiers themselves, it was about the intent of the person being returned to. Like other songs, the ideas got twisted by some popular cultural trend.
From the first two lines of the song, "I'm coming home, I've done my time / Now I've got to know what is and isn't mine" and a line later in the song ("I'm really still in prison, and my love she holds the key") I always assumed it was about a convict returning home in some shame, hoping for acceptance but, if it wasn't there, accepting that ("I'll stay on the bus, forget about us, put the blame on me").
I never understood it to be about a soldier returning home.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tie_a_Yellow_Ribbon_Round_the_Ole_Oak_Tree
Can you be reasoned out of any of this?
You have the academic or intellectual grasp of Trump, which is like a tourist visiting a big city, like Chicago, and saying "The city was wonderful, I stayed at a lovely hotel on Michigan Avenue, I didn't once observe any crime." No, and that is the usual experience of tourists. Probably why you don't understand that Trump articulates things that, at least for some people, are profoundly important. You critique his delivery, you analyze his style, I don't think you hear the words.
Site desperately needs a down-vote for folly like this.
President Trump put rocket man in a bottle, sailed the fleet through the straits to protect Taiwan, sent missiles to Poland to block puny Putin, and blocked illegals here. The job will be completed in 3024. Let the American Restoration begin!
You have done an excellent job of demonstrating Jonathan's point.
Not sure if I like "current things" here. There's already enough hot takes and outrage online. I agree with Arnold's opinions on current events, but I don't come to "In My Tribe" for what Tyler Cowen calls "mood affiliation". I'd prefer to be challenged to take a more objective and analytic view of controversies, sort of like we get usually get in Arnold's usual thoughtful essays and books.
I'm in agreement on all your foreign policy.
Ron DeSantis never articulated what he would do as president, only what he did in Florida.
What's his plan for school choice nationally? I never heard it.
Covid? Thanks but its over.
The #1 political issue today is abortion. DeSantis passed a six week ban he doesn't even believe in and didn't need to pass. That shows a level of incompetence that I think is disqualifying.
Trump is probably the only GOP candidate that can credibly convince people he doesn't want to pass laws on abortion.
What I'm continually reminded of with Trump is he's the only one willing to just do what's actually popular, regardless of whether it's part of the GOP ideology. Abortion isn't popular, drop it. Iraq was a mistake, admit it. Immigration is a disaster, call it out and don't give a shit if people call you racist. Entitlements are popular, don't waste political capital trying and failing to cut them.
What's is DeSantis's plan on foreign policy? I remember him being against Ukraine war and then flip flopping 24 hours later when his donors complained. You don't need a foreign policy as governor, but you do as president.
It seems to me that he kind of got bullied into running for President without really wanting to be president or knowing what he would do if he won. State issues don't necessarily translate to national issues. His debate with Gavin Newsome shows he was probably better off as a Governor.
"Haley has 99 percent of the enemies that Trump has."
I don't buy this. I would have been fine with DeSantis, but there is no way in hell I'm ever going to the a GOPe candidate. What did electing the Bush's of the world get us?
Haley is going to be the candidate that wants to start wars, wants to cut SS & Medicare, wants to let immigrants in, and wants a national abortion ban. That "popularity" is going to evaporate on contact.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GEz_1Y1XQAASEpg?format=jpg&name=900x900
Good insight on the DeSantis campaign. His response to Covid elevated his profile among Conservatives but that is not what defined him in the public eye. Rather it was his cultural war with Disney and Florida progressives. I personally favor what DeSantis did so I have no criticism there. What I perceived is DeSantis did not want to be pigeon-holed as a cultural warrior, especially a right-wing one, but as you write, his campaign failed to identify presidential issues and policies where a leader like DeSantis would make a difference.
Something else to consider. DeSantis made his sales pitch in Iowa and I am confident it was a good one. And Yet Trump who has no sales pitch other than he's Trump dominated the caucus. I can't be too critical of DeSantis as I don't think anyone can compete in a Republican party popularity contest against Trump. This makes no sense. It is illogical. And yet it is. Thus it was wise for DeSantis to suspend his campaign and wait for Trump fever to end, it will end eventually. Just not soon enough.
I'm surprised his advisors didn't realize ordinary people don't want to hear about Covid ad infinitum. It was a crazy event, maybe the most interesting event in some younger people's lives so far and if they're lucky it will never be succeeded - but it is a dreary topic nonetheless. And living through it was boring when it wasn't genuinely sad.
The woman actually criticized Desantis during a debate for "receiving praise" for conservation of the Everglades. Talk about stupid. Anyone who knows anything about Florida, knows there is wide support for conservation there, D and R. Check out the political stance of Ding Darling if you doubt the conservatism that is conservation. A fair amount of recent enviro funding was overseen by Jeb Bush. It is huge like a western state and while people may think it's all condos - it's very much not. It's utterly unique in its flora and fauna ... To imagine that rich people only want to hear that you are into destroying nature, jeez. Ditto the country at large.
One of Desantis' recent inititiatives, or at least something he signed off on, was the radical notion of preserving ag land!
I'm sorry - here I'll happily reveal my own bias in the spirit of the post - I was unlikely to vote for an Indian woman for president. But I'm not steadfast on that sort of thing. While it feels decidedly like voting for Trump, one of those end-times signs, I might have shifted if she said any of the right things (as Trump occasionally does). But she seems like the dumb GOP careerist version of Kamala Harris.
And an Indian woman whose family arrived in 1969, telling America that she hates America - which is what being anti-preservation is - no thanks.
like for "dumb GOP careerist version of Kamala Harris"
She IS brighter (and less amoral) than Kamala, but that's a low bar indeed.
Yes, that was mean. I'm sure she made excellent grades in school.
But what she said was disrespectful and nasty to all the people of both parties who care about land protection, water quality and wildlife and plant diversity.
DeSantis' presidential campaign could probably have been predicted from his campaign for governor in 2018 which he nearly lost to a crack smoking Democrat. I like the guy a lot and, if I had a magic wand and could simply make it happen, he is the person I would put in the White House but he is a terrible retail politician. Had DeSantis won the nomination (or Haley), the election would already be over since neither DeSantis nor Haley can win WI, MI, or PA even in a fair election- those states are pretty deeply blue at the national office level- Trump is the only GOP candidate that has won any of those three in the last 35 years. Like him or hate him, Trump brings in new voters to the the top of the GOP ticket, at the cost of losing some in the more reddish states like Arizona, Georgia, Texas, and North Carolina.
Finally, as I will point out for the 100th time, if Trump hadn't run in 2016, we would now be in year 8 of the Hillary Clinton administration with Tim Kaine a basic shoo-in for taking office next year. The demographics of the country have given the Democrats an electoral lock that can only be picked by a candidate whose main appeal isn't to the voters for McCain and Romney in 2008 and 2012. In any case, it simply doesn't matter who the GOP nominates- mail-in-voting has made the GOP even more unelectable since 2018- the Democrats are in the process right now of perfecting the art right down to the congressional district level as evidenced by the GOP's lousy mid-term performance. Next November, the Democrats will almost certainly retake the House and might hold onto the Senate even though the traditional math says they shouldn't be able to win either one.
Whatever desantis natural charisma or lack thereof, he choose to have his campaign run by ex Ted Cruz losers. It shows an incredible lack of foresight.
This is a great comment, particularly Trump being the only tool we've got.
And yes, it puts me very much in mind of a running thing with me - my forever attempting to do something inappropriate with a tool, banging on a recalcitrant screw with the butt of the screwdriver, or using pliers where a wrench is needed, hammering on the wings of a tight pvc cap until they break. Etc.
I don't think it's at all a given that only Trump can win. See here:
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4251779-biden-trump-desantis-haley-2024-poll-fox/
The polls are irrelevant- not to be believed at all. If one hasn't learned that since 2012, I don't know what else would convince you.
Here is my sermon for today. “Why is defeating Donald Trump so hard?”
Trump is (partly) a symptom and warning that our country is unhealthy. Unhealthy at many levels, and in many places, in ways that are difficult, and--probably and currently--impossible to fix.
But I am not a pessimist. This is no time to give up.
The best thing that I can do in this situation is to first get my family to a safe place and then resume my cadence. Then, I might ask “What would Milton Friedman do?” He would say to have our ideas ready; to write our books if they aren’t already written; to have done our homework; for when the next crisis comes, as it ALWAYS does, to be ready for it. Be ready with positive suggestions and solutions when to opportunity emerges. The best ideas on hand, when the crisis comes will determine the outcome.
Heed the words of Brian Klaus, author of Fluke, and Econtalk guest this week. Why were Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombed? It was a fluke. See excerpt below.
In analogy, in order to save our city, we need to have our cloud in place when that bomber goes up. We need to have Stimson in position when targeting decisions are made. That is how life is. Part of the reason we exist is because atrocious events have occurred. We exist BECAUSE others have died. Another crisis will come. Be ready. Until then, maintain your cadence.
“Russ Roberts: And now, Brian. You open your book with two remarkable stories. One is about Henry Stimson, and one is about yourself. Let's start with the Stimson story and how it illustrates the idea behind your book.
“Brian Klaas: Yeah. So, the Stimson story starts with a vacation in 1926 to Kyoto, Japan, and it's a couple, Mr. and Mrs. H.L Stimson, who go on this vacation and just fall in love with the city. And, this is relevant, because 19 years later, the husband in the couple, Henry Stimson, ends up being America's Secretary of War, who's overseeing the Targeting Committee, which is tasked with deciding where to drop the first atomic bomb to end World War II. And, all of the generals, all the people on the Targeting Committee, basically agree that Kyoto should be destroyed, but Stimson and his wife like Kyoto. So, twice, he intervenes with President Truman to get Kyoto taken off the targeting list.
“And so the reason why--the immediate reason why--the first bomb was dropped in Hiroshima is effectively because a couple that happened to be in the right place and right time 19 years later, took a vacation there in 1926.
“And, the reason I opened the book with that is because I think it illustrates how very small changes--decisions about where to vacation two decades earlier--can cause the deaths of a hundred thousand people in one city rather than another.
“And, that's the idea behind the book: is that there's a lot of randomness, chance, chaos, and contingency that diverts our lives and our societies more than we often think it does.
“Russ Roberts: And, for completeness, because I found this also quite interesting, the targeting of Nagasaki, the second city that the atomic bomb was dropped on, also had a fluke aspect to it.
“Brian Klaas: Yeah. So, this is where the other city that was chosen for the bombing on August 9th, 1945, it was called Kokura. And, the reason why the bomb ended up being dropped on Nagasaki instead was because of brief cloud cover over Kokura.
So, they thought there were forecasted clear skies. They sent the bomber up. These brief clouds flit across at just the right time. It obscures the bomb site, and they don't want to accidentally drop the second atomic bomb in history not on the target. So, they decide to go to Nagasaki instead. And so, even in Japan to this day, people say 'Kokura's luck' refers to unknowingly escaping disaster.
“And this is--one of the other themes in Fluke is that we often think about the sort of chance, contingent events that divert our lives or our societies, a lot of the time, we're unaware of them. And, in Kokura, they would not have been aware, until much later, that their city was almost incinerated, except for a cloud.“
https://www.econtalk.org/if-life-is-random-is-it-meaningless-with-brian-klaas/#audio-highlights
Great points Scott....the degree to which humans live in a fantasy land of literally delusional certainty is downright scary.
FDR could not be defeated either. He had to die in office. Trump is the FDR of the Republican party. Crazy thing, Trump is not a Republican. That is how messed up American party politics are.
What’s your explanation for why FDR was so popular? Or more importantly what were his good qualities? That’s a Turing test I need to work on.
I am not studied enough to understand the failure of the Republican Party to mount a challenge to FDR. I know the war changed the politics to FDR's favor. But why during the depression did FDR stay popular? I suspect it was because the media treated FDR and his policies very favorably and the Republicans were not able to coordinate a popular message.
FDR had weekly radio broadcasts, when radio was NEW. He could, and did, talk to the normal working man about problems and how he was going to solve them. His solutions weren't so different from Hoover's (R), nor did they work so well (too socialistic), but FDR was clearly on the side of workers, and unions. Republicans then were snobs -- like many are still, but the most snobbish have become Dems.
FDR was basically what passed for "patrician" in America. And I think that was part of his appeal actually, especially as he had a naturally friendly, casual manner that made the noblesse oblige go down easy.
Totally cribbing from Power Broker but I think of the Republicans of New York state represented ... upstate New York burghers and rural property owners, farmers? Whereas Dems I associate with NYC. I don't know how FDR came to his politics though.
Trump being a Dem is a curiosity. I agree the case can be made that he’s a Dem; some other type of Dem though. How would you explain it?
“We need to go full Conan on them.” I like these posts.
Don't tell 'em what you're gonna do. Tell 'em what ya did.
Yea, something about that line coming from Arnold made me smile hugely. Those familiar with Pratchett's work will understand why my thoughts immediately went to Genghis Cohen and the Silver Horde :D
Hat tip to Howard.
Howard?
Robert E. Howard, author of Conan the Barbarian series.
Got it. I only knew it as a movie.
How’s the book?
It's a series - how Conan rises from orphan in a conquered village to master of an empire, with both bloody battles and acquisition of endless girls.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conan_(books)
In retrospect, the movies are a good representation and Schwarzenegger the right blend of bravery and superstition.
Destroyer and Barbarian were two of my favorite childhood movies. I’ll think about reading them with my son when he gets old enough.
The books are pulp, but first-rate pulp, fast & exciting, with excellent world building. You can get all of the ERH ones for close to free on Amazon Kindle. There were also a number of follow-on novels, of variable quality, started by L Sprague de Camp, who consulted on the first movie. I should change my avi to the Wolf Witch for this reply.
I think a good way to get the essence of a campaign is the political ads they run.
During the mid-terms 90%+ of the ads I saw were about abortion.
All of the Nikki Haley ads I see say that Trump will be "too distracted" by court battles to beat Biden. They also *brag* that since the liberal media is against Trump he won't be able to win.
The idea that someone might be reject and want to fight law-fare against political opponents and hostile media companies just doesn't cross Haley's mind.
"We can't beat the left, all we can do is surrender to them on anything that matters in the hopes of winning elections so that I can enrich myself and have a little power."
It's just plain disgusting.
The virtue and value of Trump (for the most part) is that he is willing to defend what is declared indefensible. Everybody else tries to meet the opposition half-way or accommodate the criticism. Everybody else cedes ground from the start.
Engaging topic, and I think I agree with it? But I want to push back against the rest of the commenters that I’m afraid that this amount of emotionality (even if I agree with it!) may be a path to punditry. It may get you more clicks/subs/etc, but it’s not a recipe for clear thinking.
I’ve long appreciated your policy of writing posts and letting them “steep” for a few days before posting them. As a reader, I’m always tantalizingly curious about what you leave on the cutting room floor, but as a thinker, I realize that ideas are better after a round of clear-headed editing.
On the other hand, transparency of opinion lets us see how bad of thinking is out there that we have to eventually find a way to fix if we want this world to be less insane some day.
This post passes the Turing test and reinforces my satisfaction with my paid subscription. Thank you. More in this vein welcome.
Freedom of the seas might not be enforceable any longer. Basic missiles/drones and targeting technology seems to have gotten a magnitude cheaper in the last 30 years (except for the ones the US military buys at a million dollars a pop). The Houthis are probably targeting ships with missiles that cost them a few thousand dollars to make/buy which have to be shot down by missiles the U.S. Navy pays a million dollars per shot. I can't make this math work, and this leaves as the only other option being boots on the ground in Yemen to stop them, which might still not work.
Stopping Israel's genocide of the Palestinians is arguably an alternative strategy that should be considered.
I saw a recent article (no idea where) about an anti-missile laser doing really well in testing. I remember it as being British, but that might be wrong. The sense I got was “time to put a prototype on a real combat ship.” Of course, weather must be a bitch for it. I imagine it doesn’t work in fog or heavy rain. And this is the ocean we are talking about.
Nice point about freedom of the seas being something that even a very reduced US military should defend. I something’s think about what consistent policy the US could have that would be between fighting every fight everywhere, if only by proxy (the Cold War norm) and making the Atlantic and Pacific our moat. A few principles could loom large in such a consistent policy:
- freedom of navigation
- don’t actually invade our friends who have coasts that we can park aircraft carriers next to
- we promise to obliterate anyone who uses nukes
- something something about bioengineering contagious disease
Beyond specific details I agree or disagree, we really need retired people to speak up.People on their careers are almost never independent.
A reserve army of retired Sages is the only possible source of sincere advice in this Age without nobility. To some extent capitalism entangle each other too much to be able to be sincere.
Thank you.
Wisdom began with the cave paintings at Lascaux.
Children still don't listen well.
1. Yellow-ribbonism just seems like a subset of the broader 'feminization of culture.' But, to a hammer, everything is a nail.
2. I think your read on Trump, Haley et al is pretty off. Politics is largely a charisma game, and Ronnie D doesn't have it. Trump does. Vivek does, and if he had more media time, he would be vastly more popular because his message is closer to the zeitgeist. Haley is in fact an establishment candidate (backed by Trump's enemies, like Reid Hoffman, etc.) and will do about as well as Romney, Ryan, and Jeb, which is to say, not very well.
Recall that Trump turned out the most votes in history, in the middle of a pandemic. It still didn't matter. Irrespective of 'stop the steal,' there is no dispute at all that Biden carried the day on the back of 'mail-in balloting.' Mail-ins reflect a different sort of groundgame where Dems have a major structural advantage: density. You can "harvest" more votes in a single urban tower in one afternoon, then a GOP groundgame could "harvest" in the 'burbs in a month. I would go so far as to suggest that unless/until mail-in voting or vote harvesting is uniformly illegal or curtailed, GOP will never win another national election again.