Conservative Weakness

More divided than their opponents

Aaron Renn writes that there are

three rival visions of what tradition is to be conserved: social conservatism, cultural conservatism, and bourgeois values.

One can quibble with his classification scheme, but it is useful enough to work with. I would describe the first two as populist and the last as elitist. As a first approximation, populist adherents are not college educated and elitist adherents are college educated.

I would say that on the left, there may be divisions between moderates and social justice activists. But there is unity in opposition to conservatives, especially the populist strands of conservatism. Overall, the divisions within conservatism weaken it in the face of this united opposition. That is Renn’s explanation for conservatisms’ “failure to conserve.”

Note that the situation might look similar from a left point of view. That is, divisions within the left are readily apparent, and the right appears to be united against the left. I think that this is true to some extent, so that each side tends to be dissatisfied.

Social conservatives are the populists most motivated by religious moral issues. Opposition to abortion is their top priority. According to Renn, their other priorities are traditional families, anti-feminism, and fighting porn and drugs.

The populists that Renn calls cultural conservatives are the MAGA movement. Their top priority is freezing America demographically. This means stopping illegal immigration and limiting legal immigration. They also favor America First, which means protectionism and avoiding military intervention.

When it comes to culture, elite conservatives are in favor of the “success sequence,” meaning finishing high school before marriage and marriage before having children. But they champion these and other bourgeois values for pragmatic utilitarian reasons, not religious ones.

I think that of these three varieties of conservatism, libertarians are closest to the narrow elite group. Think of Bryan Caplan.

Libertarians and the elite conservatives feel comfortable, at least socially, with the moderate elites on the left. They feel uncomfortable with either set of populist priorities—ending abortion or restricting immigration.

The elite conservatives were a dominant force in the Republican Party as recently as 2012, when Mitt Romney was the nominee for President. But today Renn says that they have “no popular constituency.”

Renn argues that the social conservatives cannot win, because most of the country is to the left of them on their key issues, especially abortion. I agree.

Renn also argues that the cultural conservatives (MAGA) cannot win, because the elites are united in favor of immigration. I think he overstates his case there, particularly when he writes “Open borders is the hill the Wall Street Journal editorial page would die on.” I think that the elites would like to see a compromise on immigration that curbs illegal immigration while expanding and reforming legal immigration. In fact, it may turn out that MAGA does win, meaning that illegal immigration is reduced without any increase in legal immigration.

There are those who would argue that for a long time this country was governed by a bipartisan elite consensus. This combined the conservatives elites on the Republican side with moderate Democrats. Eventually, their mistakes and arrogance ended up alienating too many Americans.

The recent trends have weakened the erstwhile elites of both parties. The social justice activists have emasculated the moderate Democrats, while the populists have eviscerated the elite Republicans. And that is where today. The elites of the 1990s and early 2000s have lost legitimacy. But their opponents are hampered by unpopular positions on issues like left-wing social justice or right-wing opposition to abortion. Until a new and better elite emerges—one with more humility and respect for the rest of the country— the prospects for a centrist government seem remote.

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Which Tradition Is to Be Conserved?