Trump Transition Issues
three short takes
Lack of management experience
In response to my post criticizing the lack of management experience of appointees like Pete Hegseth, I received through various channels some important pushback. Several critics pointed out that the management of a government agency is done by under-secretaries, assistant secretaries, and the like. The head of the agency is mostly managing out, not down. Dealing with Congress, other agency heads, and the President. Point well taken.
But I stand by my concern about Mr. Trump’s appointees. If an agency head is going to hit the ground running, he has to come in with the under-secretaries and such already chosen. Ideally, some of them come from a management team you bring from your previous job. These are people in whom you have confidence and who understand how to work with you.
If you walk into the job as an agency head without your own team, then you have to rely on the recommendations from people in the transition organization. It takes time for you to get to know the personnel and to learn to work with them. This is unlikely to go smoothly at first.
I don’t think that Hegseth and other appointees are acquainted with a management team to bring on board, nor do they have experience in selecting and leading such a team . So I think that they will be hampered in doing their jobs.
Scott Bessent’s Priorities
I predict that Scott Bessent will be able to hit the ground running by swiftly fielding a management team. Also, according to a WSJ story,
Bessent’s “three arrows” include cutting the budget deficit to 3% of gross domestic product by 2028, spurring GDP growth of 3% through deregulation and producing an additional 3 million barrels of oil or its equivalent a day.
These seem like smart, achievable goals. The GDP growth target is interesting, in that GDP growth is equal to the growth in the labor force plus the growth in labor productivity. Mass deportations will harm real growth, both by reducing the labor force and by spending resources on the deportations.
On the other hand, Mr. Trump did say at one point that he wants to make it easy for college graduates to immigrate. If we gain college graduates while losing unskilled labor, the gain in productivity growth might help reach the GDP growth target.
James Capretta on DOGE
When James Capretta opines, I usually nod in agreement. But I cannot endorse Capretta’s idea for government efficiency.
Instead of going to war with the bureaucracy, which is what Musk and Ramaswamy are signaling, the incoming administration could design an incentive system to reward those agencies which deliver more output at less cost to taxpayers and burden to the private sector.
I disagree. The problem is that the “output” of many departments is either non-existent, unnecessary, or actually harmful to the economy. More of this at less expense should not be the goal. I agree that war with the bureaucracy is risky and difficult, but in my opinion it must be waged.
Obviously, Trump’s transition moves have drawn many takes. I like Gabe Fleisher’s calm and balanced thoughts.
substacks referenced above:
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The most important and unprecedented fact about the transition is the one getting the least attention and discussion: it isn't happening. It hasn't begun and it seems likely at this point that there won't be any kind of handover and rapid learning ramp-up period at all. Incoming Trump political appointees are still totally locked out from access to all government resources, facilities, and personnel - even those designated to work on transition landing teams, and this fully three weeks after the the election, with only 8 weeks remaining until the inauguration, and with no reason to hope that the impasse regarding the content of the transition agreements will be resolved. It's bad news for the ability of the incoming people to hit the ground running.
As usual, Arnold, I am nodding my head as I read your posts. I will offer that as one who worked for 10 years in contract research with the government operatives in USDA, EPA, and FDA, I loudly applauding the concept of DOGE, even though I will be stupefied if it succeeds. The Swamp is very deep.