The Kavanaugh Aftermath, 6/14

What if he had been assassinated?

Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh might have been assassinated. I have not seen speculation of how things would have proceeded had this happened. What sort of scenarios might have emerged?

Consider two possible reactions among the leaders of the Democratic Party.

(a) We have progressive goals, but we cannot achieve them by violence. We need to heal the country. We will work with the Senate Republican leadership to find a Supreme Court nominee who is acceptable to both parties.

(b) We will take this opportunity to put a Progressive on the Supreme Court. President Biden will nominate a person quickly and the Senate will bypass the filibuster to confirm that person.

I believe that the chances are over 70 percent that they would have chosen option (b).

Then what?

Consider two possible reactions of the Republican rank-and-file.

(i) We are angry that the Democrats are taking advantage of political violence to shape the Supreme Court. But there is nothing that we can do about it, other than to try to punish them in elections.

(ii) Two can play this game. If they want to assassinate a conservative Supreme Court justice, then we can assassinate a Democratic Senator. If we succeed, then they won’t be able to confirm a Supreme Court nominee.

I think that the vast majority of Republicans would choose (i). But I believe that there is at least a 20 percent chance that some individual or individuals choose (ii).

Then what?

Pundits have speculated about another Civil War in this country. Most agree that it is very unlikely. But the assassination of a Supreme Court justice seems to me to have the potential to trigger one.