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Ross Nordeen's avatar

I had to double check, but the pigs new saying in AF is “Four legs good, two legs better”.

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John Alcorn's avatar

Let me suggest other processes that interact with the political psychology Arnold sketches.

Analysis should distinguish beliefs and preferences.

And analysis should distinguish inner conformity (subconscious adaption of beliefs or preferences) and outer conformity (strategic misrepresentation of beliefs or preferences, in order to fit in).

For example, those who formed a policy preference against mandatory injections had diverse beliefs. Some believed that too little was known about risks and benefits of new mRNA and protein subunit technologies. Some believed that persons with natural immunity (due to prior infection) should be exempt. Some believed that coercion is wrong in principle. Some believed that coercion would backfire by inducing mistrust of motives. Some believed that the game was rigged by big pharma and corruption. Taken together, people with diverse beliefs formed a coalition against a mandate.

This belief-coalition (an ad-hoc group) had to navigate Arnold's tribal status competition. Here is where conformity took center stage. My intuition is that, amid polarization, elites engaged in much strategic misrepresentation of beliefs (their own and also others'), in order justify (divisive) policy preferences. But I might be wrong. Perhaps elites subconsciously came to believe what fits the policy line, like a person who tosses and turns in sleep until she finds a comfortable position. In any case, the two processes can each have bite.

[edited for typos and clarity]

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