The Current Thing

The war with Iran overwhelms other issues. So here a few of takes

A Battlefield of Choice

Critics call this a war of choice. Perhaps that is the right perspective. But another perspective is that this Iranian regime chose war against America from the outset, and has not let up. They have attacked when they wanted and never let up on eliminationist rhetoric against “the Great Satan."

Perhaps the choice was never going to be between war and peace with this regime. The choice was going to be over when the decisive battle would be fought. The Trump Administration has chosen to fight the decisive battle now, when the regime is weak, rather than wait and run the risk that Iran will further develop its nuclear and ballistic missile capability.

Germany, Japan, and Iran

In 1945, the European and Pacific wars ended differently.

In Europe, Hitler wanted to fight to the bitter end. Some historians have suggested that he wanted to see his own people suffer, because they had let him down.

In Japan, there was also a spirit of fighting to the death. But cooler heads prevailed.

One pictures the war with Germany ending with Berlin reduced to rubble, as Soviet soldiers unleash their final brutal offensive.

One pictures the war with Japan ending in a dignified ceremony on the battleship Missouri, with the Japanese leaders formally signing the surrender document. It was received by General MacArthur, who proceeded to oversee the reconstitution of Japanese society.

The war in Iran is not going to end like either VE day or VJ day. We can spare the Iranian general population the suffering that Germans endured. But there are no signs of any cooler heads in Iran’s leadership cadre ready to participate in a dignified surrender. They are more like the kamikazi fighters than the emperor.

But it seems to me that a VJ-type surrender is what we should be seeking. Keep decapitating the regime until the remaining leaders are ready to agree to our terms.

The Anti-Americans

In World War II, Americans were overwhelmingly rooting for victory over enemies that we saw as evil. Today, we have Tlaib, Mamdani, and many others openly rooting for Iran against America.¹ This threatens to divide the Democratic Party for the rest of this decade.

On the Republican side, things could get ugly if there are a lot of American casualties. Obviously, the Tucker Carlson faction would be eager to blame the Jews.

The war is going to cost a lot of money, and the anti-war faction on the right may try to make something of that. But my assessment is that most Americans will be persuaded that ending the Iranian regime is worth it. Getting rid of a medieval theocracy that has consistently threatened and attacked America? Priceless.

On the left, the alliance with anti-western Muslims, fresh from a victory in two by-elections in the UK, is going to be with us for a while. Here in the United States, I have been predicting that by 2028, it will be strong enough to enact an explicitly anti-Israel plank at the Democratic Convention.

The anti-Israel main dish served by the Democratic Party will be accompanied by a large helping of anti-Americanism. The latter will not be popular in the electorate at large. Many Democrats will want to tamp down on anti-Americanism. The question is whether the patriots will succeed, or whether instead they will be self-marginalizing—the equivalent of #neverTrump Republicans. Either way, the Democrats will face difficulties.

1. This was also true during the Vietnam War. The far left chanted “Ho Ho Ho. Ho Chi Minh. NLF is going to win.” John Lennon famously put them down: “But if you go carryin’ pictures of Chairman Mao, you ain’t gonna make it with anyone anyhow.”