Matt Yglesias maintains that Mamdani’s win says little about the viability of extremely progressive candidates outside of all but the most liberal cities.
But as Nate Silver notes,
“New York City is not as friendly to progressive leftism as you might find on the West Coast. Instead, it has elected mayors like Adams, Michael Bloomberg and Rudy Giuliani, and there’s recently been a conservative backlash in the city, which swung strongly to Donald Trump last year. But that makes Zohran’s win more impressive, not less. New York isn’t Portland, or San Francisco.”
There will be many more aspiring Mamdanis and the progressive wing will push hard for a democratic socialist nominee in 2028. Why wouldn’t they? Presidential races are roughly a coin flip and JD Vance is very beatable.
Didn’t follow Vance’s electoral fortunes before he became VP, but he seems to be someone comfortable in his own skin, and with off-the-cuff speaking, and the camera.
An AOC might also be that way, but she can’t help letting shrill hysteria tinge her speech.
I think people respond to that quality in people though I guess Biden is the counter-example. And Nixon.
I will vote for Vance in a heartbeat if he resists getting pulled into Mike Lee/ Heritage Foundation type hostility to conservation.
Fortunately I’m indifferent-to-hostile to government interventions in natalism, seeing it as a bad joke given that 95% of what government does in the social engineering way is to encourage all the wrong people to breed. I’d see it get out of that business altogether rather than offer you a coupon, much as I appreciate your acerbic comments.
I should really write something new about the issue (there is an endless number of examples to choose from): the DNC and Democratic Party politics have zoomed off into the aether. The activists and believers in the party seem to be almost completely divorced from reality at this point.
This might be the natural condition of a society in which wealth and privilege has created a class of people without any concrete experience of poverty or crime or war or struggle. The ironic thing si that their rhetoric is SO adamantly against privilege, yet privilege defines the shapes of their lives, and suffuses every detail. They can't even see it.
Maybe a Mayor Mamdani will bankrupt & damage NYC so much that Republicans can use it as an example of how bad Dem policies are, and thus win the independent vote enough to start reducing the budget deficit.
The long report on Alpha School was great. Plus, I’m pretty sure Bribing Students to get better behavior would actually scale well. I’ve long advocated some form of this. I can easily imagine most of the teacher/guides being replaced by personable ai tutors, and thus get 80% of the benefits for 10% of the $40k/ cost. Tho I don’t believe that method will work for low IQ kids getting high, 1350 or more, SAT scores.
There is some max genetic IQ that only will be achieved with the perfect SES parents, schools, & neighborhoods, tho good ones will be within some small 1-5% of that gMax. Bad schools & peers & parenting might reduce the achieved IQ by 10-20 maybe 30%, but those effects seem to diminish over time. Perhaps the optimally high SAT is actually based on 120% Max IQ, for scoring then. Still, getting more students learning at their IQ max is great.
Arnold’s ai professor/ tutor might fit well in a more ai based Alpha Value homeschool + pod socialization course, ai tutor/ guides.
While a number of secular Jews rejected Mamdani (far more than if they were non-jewish progressives), he still got an astonishing number of Jewish votes. At the end of the day Jews need to look at themselves.
It seems to me that Mamdani won the "underperforming white NYC kid making not a high salary and having their parents pay their rent" set. I.E. people like himself (minus the skin tone).
Cuomo won both the poor (poors were instructed to vote for him) and the rich (people who actually own property in Manhattan).
Ordinarily this wouldn't matter, because extremist that win the primary are supposed to lose in the general, but NYC isn't white enough to make the general competitive. All those poor black and browns that voted for Cuomo will in the end vote for whoever has a D next to the name, even if they would prefer it was someone else.
432,305
That's how many votes he got. For reference there are over 4M eligible voters in NYC.
Zohran’s win represents the growing influence of Indians in American politics. South Asians are uniquely suited for this moment. Modern American is a place that rewards shameless, charismatic bullshitters who tell people whatever they want to hear. “Heritage Americans” find this beneath them. The ones who do engage in this behavior come off as sleazy car dealers, rendering them unsuitable to win political races. They don’t like people who will flip their beliefs on a dime and be completely dishonest. It’s one of the reasons Kamala Harris lost her race.
Kamala’s fellow Indians are better at this. Take Vivek Ramaswamy, a similar character to Zohran. He’s also a charismatic and media savvy millennial. Unlike Zohran, Vivek is a conservative. However, his beliefs change depending on the situation. He’s both denounced the Great Replacement and called for more immigration. He’s been both a non-interventionist and a hawk. He’s also been a Trump hater and Trump worshipper. Whatever position he feels wins over an audience, he will adopt and brilliantly articulate it. He lacks any shame and he’s quick on his feet, which allowed him to easily fend off attacks from the media and other candidates in the 2024 primary. Nothing stuck because he could quickly bullshit his way through any discrepancy and contradiction. It was a remarkable skill.
To get ahead in modern America, one needs to be shameless. Having shame will hold one back. One can’t promise the impossible or blatantly lie with a degree of shame. Without it, you can go far in public life. Multicultural America no longer has the same standards that it did in its Anglo-Saxon days. It rewards the grifter over the honest man, bullshit over straight facts. Those who cling to the old ways struggle to make it in this new world. Indians don’t have that problem. This environment is made for them.
Zohran displayed Vivek’s bullshiter charm in his campaign, but he is different in that he is likely a genuine socialist. Mamdani’s parents are dedicated leftists themselves. But he also knows that a campaign promising free stuff will give him power. He may feel it’s necessary to abandon his beliefs to advance his political legacy as mayor. We’ll see what commitment becomes paramount when he governs the city.
"South Asians are uniquely suited for this moment. Modern American is a place that rewards shameless, charismatic bullshitters who tell people whatever they want to hear."
Unfortunately, I believe this to be true. Seeing the output of organizations that match what you describe, I fear it bodes very badly for the US.
While that has often been the issue of democracy, with greater or lesser effects, I feel that it is no longer largely confined to politics but marks much of our business and just every days lives. It is this moment in the US because it is everywhere. While it was largely true that such behavior was the mark of the slimy salesman or other disreputable scum bag, it has become the norm. I believe this is in part because it is never punished in the social sense; we let it slide. People don't get fired for not performing. We don't ostracize those who can rationalize their mistruths. We just assume everyone is lying to us and consider it the price of being around people. It is the descent into a low trust society.
Lots of people don't let slimy behavior slide. Lots of people get fired for not performing (though rarely in so many words). Lots of people won't deal with others who rationalize their untruths. I certainly don't assume everyone is lying, and I'm sure you don't either. If you did, why bother to tell the truth, or post a comment complaining about it?
"In 2028, how will the party be able to resist nominating a far leftist, perhaps even Mamdani himself."—They can't nominate Mamdani, he's ineligible to run for US President; he's not a 'Natural-born US citizen.' He was born in Uganda to (at the time of his birth) two non-US citizens. To my knowledge, he only became a naturalised citizen in 2018.
I'm pretty sure Zohran Mamdani, as a naturalized rather than "natural born" citizen, will not be the Democratic nominee in 2028. I don't think the party will be that ready to discard the election.
Let’s see…maybe they will take the position that the 14th Amendment eliminated (don’t ask me how, this will be irrelevant as you will see in a moment) the natural born citizen requirement. Then, with a majority in both houses of Congress, they will agree with themselves about it, and count the electoral votes for him…
To write, "the fact that crime is a primary use case for them" is really embarrassing. I say this as a fan of your work in general. Maybe it's ok to have critical opinions of crypto in general, but to not see that stablecoins have huge advantages in settlement time, 24/7 accessibility, or international access is just a huge miss at this point. Please update your biases.
Poor epistemics here. Being opposed to the current actions in Gaza is a pro-Israel stance. Netanyahu’s method of fighting is only cutting off heads of a hydra to watch seven sprout shortly after.
Warren Delano, maternal grandfather to the future FDR POTUS, was a principal in the partnership that represented the American side of the opium trade. It's where the foundation of the Roosevelt financial empire began. Twice. Warren made it, blew it up in the panic of 1857, then returned and made it all back in the 2nd Opium War.
The Alpha School essay was a great read. Definitely worth reading the whole thing. I would be interested to read your thoughts on it.
I’m also really interested in learner-driven micro schools right now as I have young kids who are almost school age and I don’t think homeschooling makes sense for our family. I believe Alpha School branched off of Acton Academy, a network of micro schools. While it seems like Alpha Schools take the Acton model to a higher level, it seems like the Acton model comes close at a quarter of the cost.
The analogy is that very few people use hundred dollar bills for financial transactions. The people who do are generally trying to shield what they are doing from the eyes of governments, because what they are doing is against those government's laws, e.g., selling various drugs. Similarly, the people who use stable coins for transactions today are generally doing something that they want to keep on the QT.
It took me some time, but it is obvious now. I see no way that it would help me with my legal activities, and I retired from illegal activities seconds ago. Thanks for your time.
At the 2012 convention, establishment Dems pushed thru a plank to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel & were showered with boos. The boos were equally for the rigged process as for the policy itself. 2028 will be the 4th convention since then; it will be curious to see if the policies fit your change timeline.
Mamdani is Turchin more than Gurri
an activist son of an activist studies professor and of a film writer/director BOTH of them children of british civil servants
that is not a revolt of the public that is a managerial class nepo baby
I am NOT dissing the guy - this is very similar background to Obamas'
It's a revolt of the disappointing offspring of the UMC/elite against their parents.
That's good.
Matt Yglesias maintains that Mamdani’s win says little about the viability of extremely progressive candidates outside of all but the most liberal cities.
But as Nate Silver notes,
“New York City is not as friendly to progressive leftism as you might find on the West Coast. Instead, it has elected mayors like Adams, Michael Bloomberg and Rudy Giuliani, and there’s recently been a conservative backlash in the city, which swung strongly to Donald Trump last year. But that makes Zohran’s win more impressive, not less. New York isn’t Portland, or San Francisco.”
There will be many more aspiring Mamdanis and the progressive wing will push hard for a democratic socialist nominee in 2028. Why wouldn’t they? Presidential races are roughly a coin flip and JD Vance is very beatable.
Didn’t follow Vance’s electoral fortunes before he became VP, but he seems to be someone comfortable in his own skin, and with off-the-cuff speaking, and the camera.
An AOC might also be that way, but she can’t help letting shrill hysteria tinge her speech.
I think people respond to that quality in people though I guess Biden is the counter-example. And Nixon.
I will vote for Vance in a heartbeat if he resists getting pulled into Mike Lee/ Heritage Foundation type hostility to conservation.
He promised me a $5k CTC and he failed. He's dead to me.
Fortunately I’m indifferent-to-hostile to government interventions in natalism, seeing it as a bad joke given that 95% of what government does in the social engineering way is to encourage all the wrong people to breed. I’d see it get out of that business altogether rather than offer you a coupon, much as I appreciate your acerbic comments.
When are you going to give up the social security and Medicare that my kids are going to be paying for?
Non-breeders massively steal from breeders via retirement programs. Your thieves. Getting back my money you’re stealing is a top priority.
I haven’t seen a doctor since 2007 and will never do so so I’m probably paying for your Medicare and your current doctoring.
I’ve so arranged my life that social security could end and I’d be fine.
I’m glad you had kids but not because of the New Deal; I only had one which is indeed closer to none, than to two.
Are you sending the SS checks back to the government?
When you reach the end of life are you going to stick your kids with the bill or is it going to Medicare and Medicaid?
In truth, the specific outcomes of your life are irrelevant. You might get sick, you might not.
By not having 2.1 kids you have not contributed your fair share to retirement expenses I have a 0% expectation you will forego.
CTC child tax credit?
I should really write something new about the issue (there is an endless number of examples to choose from): the DNC and Democratic Party politics have zoomed off into the aether. The activists and believers in the party seem to be almost completely divorced from reality at this point.
This might be the natural condition of a society in which wealth and privilege has created a class of people without any concrete experience of poverty or crime or war or struggle. The ironic thing si that their rhetoric is SO adamantly against privilege, yet privilege defines the shapes of their lives, and suffuses every detail. They can't even see it.
https://jmpolemic.substack.com/p/the-dnc-implodes
For what it's worth, there were lots of comments to the Alpha school essay. Scott Alexander points to the ones he considers best at
https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/open-thread-388
Maybe a Mayor Mamdani will bankrupt & damage NYC so much that Republicans can use it as an example of how bad Dem policies are, and thus win the independent vote enough to start reducing the budget deficit.
The long report on Alpha School was great. Plus, I’m pretty sure Bribing Students to get better behavior would actually scale well. I’ve long advocated some form of this. I can easily imagine most of the teacher/guides being replaced by personable ai tutors, and thus get 80% of the benefits for 10% of the $40k/ cost. Tho I don’t believe that method will work for low IQ kids getting high, 1350 or more, SAT scores.
There is some max genetic IQ that only will be achieved with the perfect SES parents, schools, & neighborhoods, tho good ones will be within some small 1-5% of that gMax. Bad schools & peers & parenting might reduce the achieved IQ by 10-20 maybe 30%, but those effects seem to diminish over time. Perhaps the optimally high SAT is actually based on 120% Max IQ, for scoring then. Still, getting more students learning at their IQ max is great.
Arnold’s ai professor/ tutor might fit well in a more ai based Alpha Value homeschool + pod socialization course, ai tutor/ guides.
While a number of secular Jews rejected Mamdani (far more than if they were non-jewish progressives), he still got an astonishing number of Jewish votes. At the end of the day Jews need to look at themselves.
https://substack.com/@forumposter123protonmailcom2/note/c-129712146
It seems to me that Mamdani won the "underperforming white NYC kid making not a high salary and having their parents pay their rent" set. I.E. people like himself (minus the skin tone).
Cuomo won both the poor (poors were instructed to vote for him) and the rich (people who actually own property in Manhattan).
Ordinarily this wouldn't matter, because extremist that win the primary are supposed to lose in the general, but NYC isn't white enough to make the general competitive. All those poor black and browns that voted for Cuomo will in the end vote for whoever has a D next to the name, even if they would prefer it was someone else.
432,305
That's how many votes he got. For reference there are over 4M eligible voters in NYC.
https://www.highly-respected.com/p/the-rise-of-zohran
Zohran’s win represents the growing influence of Indians in American politics. South Asians are uniquely suited for this moment. Modern American is a place that rewards shameless, charismatic bullshitters who tell people whatever they want to hear. “Heritage Americans” find this beneath them. The ones who do engage in this behavior come off as sleazy car dealers, rendering them unsuitable to win political races. They don’t like people who will flip their beliefs on a dime and be completely dishonest. It’s one of the reasons Kamala Harris lost her race.
Kamala’s fellow Indians are better at this. Take Vivek Ramaswamy, a similar character to Zohran. He’s also a charismatic and media savvy millennial. Unlike Zohran, Vivek is a conservative. However, his beliefs change depending on the situation. He’s both denounced the Great Replacement and called for more immigration. He’s been both a non-interventionist and a hawk. He’s also been a Trump hater and Trump worshipper. Whatever position he feels wins over an audience, he will adopt and brilliantly articulate it. He lacks any shame and he’s quick on his feet, which allowed him to easily fend off attacks from the media and other candidates in the 2024 primary. Nothing stuck because he could quickly bullshit his way through any discrepancy and contradiction. It was a remarkable skill.
To get ahead in modern America, one needs to be shameless. Having shame will hold one back. One can’t promise the impossible or blatantly lie with a degree of shame. Without it, you can go far in public life. Multicultural America no longer has the same standards that it did in its Anglo-Saxon days. It rewards the grifter over the honest man, bullshit over straight facts. Those who cling to the old ways struggle to make it in this new world. Indians don’t have that problem. This environment is made for them.
Zohran displayed Vivek’s bullshiter charm in his campaign, but he is different in that he is likely a genuine socialist. Mamdani’s parents are dedicated leftists themselves. But he also knows that a campaign promising free stuff will give him power. He may feel it’s necessary to abandon his beliefs to advance his political legacy as mayor. We’ll see what commitment becomes paramount when he governs the city.
"South Asians are uniquely suited for this moment. Modern American is a place that rewards shameless, charismatic bullshitters who tell people whatever they want to hear."
Unfortunately, I believe this to be true. Seeing the output of organizations that match what you describe, I fear it bodes very badly for the US.
The time of “shameless, charismatic bullshitters who tell people whatever they want to hear” is not *this moment*: it is *the epoch of democracy*.
While that has often been the issue of democracy, with greater or lesser effects, I feel that it is no longer largely confined to politics but marks much of our business and just every days lives. It is this moment in the US because it is everywhere. While it was largely true that such behavior was the mark of the slimy salesman or other disreputable scum bag, it has become the norm. I believe this is in part because it is never punished in the social sense; we let it slide. People don't get fired for not performing. We don't ostracize those who can rationalize their mistruths. We just assume everyone is lying to us and consider it the price of being around people. It is the descent into a low trust society.
I think you exaggerate.
How so? Which part?
Lots of people don't let slimy behavior slide. Lots of people get fired for not performing (though rarely in so many words). Lots of people won't deal with others who rationalize their untruths. I certainly don't assume everyone is lying, and I'm sure you don't either. If you did, why bother to tell the truth, or post a comment complaining about it?
"In 2028, how will the party be able to resist nominating a far leftist, perhaps even Mamdani himself."—They can't nominate Mamdani, he's ineligible to run for US President; he's not a 'Natural-born US citizen.' He was born in Uganda to (at the time of his birth) two non-US citizens. To my knowledge, he only became a naturalised citizen in 2018.
Maybe AOC then...
I think so. Ro Khanna is another possibility.
I don't know very much about him, but Ro Khanna seems much more reasonable than Mamdani or AOC.
He's definitely more ecumenical than AOC has been at various points. Difficult to say in the case of Mamdani--such early days.
I'm pretty sure Zohran Mamdani, as a naturalized rather than "natural born" citizen, will not be the Democratic nominee in 2028. I don't think the party will be that ready to discard the election.
Let’s see…maybe they will take the position that the 14th Amendment eliminated (don’t ask me how, this will be irrelevant as you will see in a moment) the natural born citizen requirement. Then, with a majority in both houses of Congress, they will agree with themselves about it, and count the electoral votes for him…
To write, "the fact that crime is a primary use case for them" is really embarrassing. I say this as a fan of your work in general. Maybe it's ok to have critical opinions of crypto in general, but to not see that stablecoins have huge advantages in settlement time, 24/7 accessibility, or international access is just a huge miss at this point. Please update your biases.
Poor epistemics here. Being opposed to the current actions in Gaza is a pro-Israel stance. Netanyahu’s method of fighting is only cutting off heads of a hydra to watch seven sprout shortly after.
I too take a dim view of the legal profession but I am willing to allow there may be as many or more Atticus Finches as there are GMU mensches.
Is the US now officially in business with a Syndicate of questionable ethics?....again
We are the most successful daughter of "the most successful nacro-state in history", as Niall Ferguson once described the British Empire.
Warren Delano, maternal grandfather to the future FDR POTUS, was a principal in the partnership that represented the American side of the opium trade. It's where the foundation of the Roosevelt financial empire began. Twice. Warren made it, blew it up in the panic of 1857, then returned and made it all back in the 2nd Opium War.
The Alpha School essay was a great read. Definitely worth reading the whole thing. I would be interested to read your thoughts on it.
I’m also really interested in learner-driven micro schools right now as I have young kids who are almost school age and I don’t think homeschooling makes sense for our family. I believe Alpha School branched off of Acton Academy, a network of micro schools. While it seems like Alpha Schools take the Acton model to a higher level, it seems like the Acton model comes close at a quarter of the cost.
I buy two stablecoins for $100 each. The seller has $200 to invest in US treasuries and gets interest.
That is interest paid by Uncle Sam. I don't understand the analogy with the $100 bills that I still have in my pocket, which earn no interest.
The analogy is that very few people use hundred dollar bills for financial transactions. The people who do are generally trying to shield what they are doing from the eyes of governments, because what they are doing is against those government's laws, e.g., selling various drugs. Similarly, the people who use stable coins for transactions today are generally doing something that they want to keep on the QT.
It took me some time, but it is obvious now. I see no way that it would help me with my legal activities, and I retired from illegal activities seconds ago. Thanks for your time.
The sadness of Mamdani is that there is no young firebrand to oppose his nonsense.
I sincerely hope you are wrong about Mamdani and in 3 years he is viewed as an anomaly.
At the 2012 convention, establishment Dems pushed thru a plank to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel & were showered with boos. The boos were equally for the rigged process as for the policy itself. 2028 will be the 4th convention since then; it will be curious to see if the policies fit your change timeline.