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Treeamigo's avatar

You should review SarbOx before deciding that corporate America is going to use AI to develop one-off apps, let alone one integrated into highly regulated/audited systems.

https://www.metricstream.com/insights/sox-it-controls.htm

The CEO is technically risking jail time for violations.

Don Silva's avatar

Anthropic does appear to be the best horse to bet on in the AI race going on the limited financial information available. Their projection of positive cash flow by 2028 is certainly encouraging as is their current position atop the heap. Yet, the downside risks don’t seem to be easy to ignore:

- Its current $390 billion valuation is apparently based upon expectations of future growth, not current earnings. Suggests a high potential for volatility.

- If it hits hard times, forced asset sales won’t really be able to generate much revenue. And one wonders how true that is of other giant firms too large to buy out that have declared their intention to never pay a dividend. Take Amazon. When revenues eventually start drying up all those shareholders who thought that they were protected by the value of the firm’s salable assets might be in a for a disappointment.

- The technology is changing rapidly so a competitive advantage today may well be worthless tomorrow.

- One is seeing increased talk about the "data wall." Models based on using public or synthetic data may well be disappointed in the competitive performance of such assumptions.

More generally, the tea leaves can be read a variety of other ways as well. I was struck by this ZeroHedge piece the other day, discussing the signal all the AI superbowl ad spending and influencer payments is sending:

“When was the last time truly revolutionary tech needed a billion-dollar ad campaign?

Did the iPhone need influencer deals? Did Google Search need Super Bowl ads in 1998? Did email need this? No. People just used them.

You know what does need massive paid promotions? Pharma drugs. Crypto exchanges. Online gambling. MLM schemes. Products where adoption is hype, not utility. And now, apparently, AI.

‘This will eliminate your job. Also please use it. Here’s $600K to tell your followers it’s cool.’

They need humans to sell a product designed to replace humans. They need creators to promote tech that makes creators obsolete. They need influencers to build trust in a system that eliminates influencer marketing.

Here’s a question: if $700 billion per year can’t produce a product that sells itself, when exactly does this make money?

$700 billion in spending, cash flow collapsing, stocks tanking, SEC filings about raising capital — and the best growth strategy is paying TikTokers to demo features.

Either AI is about to deliver the greatest economic transformation in human history (and they need influencers to convince you this)… or we’re watching the most expensive corporate Hail Mary ever thrown.“

( https://www.zerohedge.com/political/super-bowl-top-signal )

Anthropic has an influencer marketing program on LinkedIn to flog Claude. It uses the hashtag #ClaudePartner and is marked as "brand partnership" on sponsored posts. One wonders how many less transparent efforts are out there.

So color me a bit unsure about what is or is not in the Kool-Aid at the moment.

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