Public Choice Links, 1/9/2026
John O. McGinnis on the affordability issue; Judge Glock on same; Dan Williams on Elinor Ostrom; Josh Barro on NY housing policy;
Housing, healthcare, childcare, education, and even electricity in some places all seem to be slipping further out of ordinary reach, even as the economy continues to grow.
Classical liberalism offers a straightforward diagnosis and an equally straightforward cure. Remove unnecessary regulations that constrict supply and withdraw subsidies that artificially inflate demand! Yet the year has also provided familiar public choice stories about the obstacles to these sensible solutions. Concentrated interests profit from regulation and subsidies, but their costs are thinly dispersed across millions of consumers.
Most of Spanberger’s affordability plans force average citizens to subsidize other groups, such as climate companies and smokers, through their regular purchases. Some of her plans would use government funds to subsidize consumers in general. Such subsidies drive up demand, and therefore costs, while also burdening taxpayers. For example, Spanberger wants to use Virginia tax dollars to underwrite health-insurance premiums on the Obamacare marketplace. Recent evidence shows that those subsidies, which Congress refused to extend last year, were riddled with fraud.
Elinor Ostrom - Governing the Commons. I was already aware of the core ideas in this book. However, people kept telling me I should read it (and Ostrom’s work more broadly) because it challenges my somewhat cynical understanding of the fragility of human cooperation. Such people are completely wrong! This brilliant book greatly reinforces my view that human cooperation doesn’t result from unleashing some inner “friendliness” or “altruism” but from complex, precarious systems of monitoring and incentives that align self-interest (more precisely, inclusive interests) with collectively-beneficial prosocial behaviour.
He also praises Mancur Olson.
Mamdani’s core observation is the same one we’ve heard from prior mayors: our city’s property tax system taxes rental apartments at a much higher rate than owner-occupied homes, which is an unfair burden on landlords and tenants. Fair enough. The problem is, to fix that unfairness, you either have to raise taxes on homeowners (hideously unpopular) or you have to cut property taxes overall (hard to do when you’ve also promised a raft of new spending programs). There’s a reason mayors tend to talk about property tax reform, ask a blue ribbon commission to look at what can be done, and then not do anything. The commission Bill de Blasio established to look into the issue literally issued its report with recommendations three days before he left office.
Mamdani also says he wants to help landlords with skyrocketing insurance costs, but to cut the cost of insurance you have to cut the cost of claims, and the reforms that would do this tend to draw a lot of opposition from trial lawyers and unions.
substacks referenced above:
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The evidence for the advent of an affordability crisis in 2025 seems to be mixed at best.
Just looking at the last 5 years of CPI change, 2025 doesn’t stand out particularly:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL#
Nor does 2025 stand out for housing price change:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USSTHPI#
Nor does 2025 stand out for healthcare price change:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIMEDSL#
Nor for childcare/education:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SEEB#
Nor for electricity:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SEHF01#
While it is true that mileage varies in many blue states which tend to do much, much worse than overall averages, that is not a 2025 unique issue either (about which more below).
Real disposable income, per capita, on the other hand, appears flat, as it has since February 2023:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A229RX0#
and real private earnings have been bouncing around in the same range as previously:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES0500000011#
As of December 2025, real disposable personal income was $52,856 per capita, a 1.38% increase from the previous year. Not exactly a figure to wet the bed over.
So, one might be forgiven for wondering why everyone is suddenly gassing about an affordability crisis?
A cynical answer might be “projection.”
When asked for the “change in private sector real disposable income in red states versus blue states over last five years,” here is what was returned:
“Over the past five years, red states have experienced stronger growth in private sector real disposable income compared to blue states, driven by higher population growth, business income gains, and lower tax burdens. As of 2024, Republican-led states outperformed blue states in real GDP growth, with 10 of the top 15 states in real GDP growth having Republican governors, and business income rising significantly in states like Tennessee, Florida, and Texas.
This trend is linked to lower tax rates and more favorable business climates in red states, which have attracted both high-income individuals and businesses, contributing to higher disposable income.
Red states have seen stronger job growth, income growth, and population increases compared to blue states, with no-income-tax states experiencing double the jobs growth rate and double the population increase over high-income-tax states.
The average per capita disposable income in red states was $50,462, compared to $61,606 in blue states, indicating a persistent income gap even after adjusting for taxes.
Despite this, blue states contribute a disproportionate share of federal tax receipts—nearly 60% from 2018 to 2022—while receiving only 53% of federal spending, resulting in a net transfer of over $1 trillion to red states, which may partially offset income disparities.
However, the higher cost of living in blue states, particularly in housing and utilities, which are 52% and 45% more expensive than in red states, respectively, reduces the real purchasing power of higher nominal incomes.”
Interestingly, one possible explanation for the wealth transfer from blue to red states might be that the latter have a greater percentage of their labor force employed in government:
“Based on the available data, red states generally have a higher concentration of government employees per capita compared to blue states. States with Republican leadership, particularly in the Great Plains and southern U.S., tend to have higher rates of non-educational public employees per 10,000 residents. For example, Wyoming, a red state, had approximately 450 non-educational full-time equivalent (FTE) workers per 10,000 residents in 2012, the highest rate in the nation.
Alaska, another red state, ranked second with about 392 FTEs per 10,000 residents.
This trend is attributed to factors such as a higher number of public hospital and health employees, extensive highway and infrastructure maintenance needs, and larger corrections staff in rural and conservative states.
In contrast, states with lower concentrations of government workers, such as Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, and Illinois, are more likely to be politically left-of-center.
While education employees are excluded from these comparisons, the overall pattern indicates that red states maintain a larger public workforce relative to their populations.”
So, maybe everything is not as simple as it might seem.
1) A structure that brings money into a state at the feds expense (ACA, Medicaid) is a recipe for explosive growth. The foxes are guarding the henhouse.
2) As I expected, Virginia's turn to the right was a limited COVID affair and we are back on track to be a state run by anti-white communists that literally want to kill my children.
https://virginiamercury.com/2025/10/05/beyond-disqualifying-jay-jones-controversy-jolts-virginias-pivotal-2025-elections/
I'm glad I left.
3) Capitalism for developers and communism for landlords does feel like something of a natural equilibrium. Baltimore for instance seemed perpetually stuck in that norm (high property taxes for general residents, special temporary tax breaks for companies willing to relocate HQs there).
Its long run viability is questionable, but the short run incentives make a lot of sense.