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Gordon Tremeshko's avatar

I think some people get stuck in the cognitive trap of not being persuadable on ideas related to what Eric Weinstein calls the gated institutional narrative. They've seen too much sketchy stuff (on climate change, gender ideology, corrupt academic disciplines like sociology and various "studies," etc) coming from these institutions to be willing to buy what they're selling anymore. In other words, they decide what to believe based on who they *disbelieve.* The problem, of course, is that the gated institutional narrative is not always wrong.

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John Alcorn's avatar

Re: "people decide what to believe by deciding who to believe".

Arnold highlights trust as the fundamental mechanism in belief-formation about complex issues.

There are other major causes of beliefs:

• Exposure to facts

• Exposure to specific causal theories

• Pressure to reckon with inconsistency among beliefs

• Myriad behind-the-back psychological mechanisms; for example, the availability heuristic, cognitive dissonance reduction, wishful thinking, counter-wishful thinking, social desirability bias, stubbornness, pride, and so on.

I would highlight two features of ideology:

• Backwards reasoning, from a preferred conclusion to reasons for it, i.e., rationalization.

• Neglect of (admittedly difficult) norms of rational belief-formation, namely, Bayesian updating, inference to the best explanation of evidence, and statistical inference.

What makes an ideology "radical"? Magoon's answer seems to be that radical ideologies are caused largely by mental disorders (mental illness). Is there a definition of radical ideology, distinct from its causes? Must any belief system critical of the establishment be largely an expression of mental illness? Is the definition of mental illness too expansive if it covers a quarter or half of the population (Magoon's figures)?

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