Peter Zeihan on Energy Markets, 6/3

should we discuss on Zoom?

Tyler Cowen writes,

I thought I would look back and consider how well IR experts did in the time leading up to the current war in Ukraine.  In particular, how many of them saw in advance that a war was coming?  And I don’t mean a day or two before the war started, though there were still many commentators in denial at such a late point.

Tyler does not mention Peter Zeihan (perhaps Zeihan is not a member of the “international relations community,” aka The Blob). Zeihan predicted the Ukraine-Russia war, although he thought that Russia would do better than they did and the West would put up less of a unified front than they have. Zeihan also predicts conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

Peter Zeihan talks about world energy markets (30 minute video, part of a much longer set). He thinks that deglobalization will be relatively easy for the United States and fatal for China. China does not produce enough food and energy. We can shift manufacturing away from China at relatively little cost, he says. Maybe it goes to friendlier countries, or maybe we manufacture domestically. But China needs oil from the Persian Gulf, and they can no longer get that if conflict heats up with other Japan or the United States, in Zeihan’s view. (I wonder if that makes a China-Taiwan conflict less likely.)

I am looking forward to reading Zeihan’s next book when it comes out, on Tuesday, June 14. I would be up for a discussion of it the following week on Zoom, with paid subscribers. Leave a comment if you are interested. My schedule the next few weeks is subject to change, so I won’t have an exact date for the discussion for a while.