Links to Consider, 8/30

Joel Kotkin on cities and WFH; Reactions to the Republican Debate from Josh Barro, Bari Weiss, and others; Nursing home shortage?

Joel Kotkin writes,

one clear consequence of working from home will be the gradual decline of the core cities – which are almost all run by progressive Democrats – and the continued rise of the more politically mixed periphery. Big city mayors face the consequences of declining real-estate values that threaten their key sources of revenue. The financial loss in general could be enormous – real-estate values are estimated to have fallen by $800 billion across Beijing, Houston, London, New York City, Paris, Munich, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo. …And things could get much worse – the Atlantic reports that $1.5 trillion in commercial property loans is due for repayment by 2025. Many debtors could default on these loans.

On last week’s Republican debate, Josh Barro writes,

When Vivek Ramaswamy and I were undergraduates at Harvard, students would sometimes talk about the scourge of “section guy.”

“Section guy” wasn’t a specific person, but an archetype — that guy in your discussion section who adores the sound of his own voice, who thinks he’s the smartest person on the planet with the most interesting and valuable interpretations of the course material, and who will not ever, ever, ever shut up.

This sounds like a profile of an ultra-narcissist. But should we be shocked? For politicians these days, extreme narcissism seems to be an advantage. It’s like the voting public’s ideal date is a Dark Triad pick-up artist.

Bari Weiss hosts the opinions on the debate of various other folks, several of whom were turned on by Section Guy. Olivia Reingold praised what she called Ramaswamy’s “authenticity.” Oy. Maybe she also thinks that PUA’s are authentic.

Weiss herself said,

I think Nikki Haley also emerged as a clear contender. From the very start of the night, she came out swinging. She started by attacking her own party for blowing up the debt. Here’s what she said: “The fact is that no one is telling the American people the truth. The truth is that Biden didn’t do this to us. Our Republicans did this to us, too. Donald Trump added $8 trillion to our debt. Our kids are never going to forgive us for this. Look at the 2024 budget: Republicans asked for $7.4 billion in earmarks. Democrats asked for $2.8 billion. So you tell me, who are the big spenders? I think it’s time for an accountant in the White House.”

Batya Ungar-Sargon adds,

I think she really is a throwback to the pre-Trump Republican Party not just on foreign policy but on economic policy as well.

I still owe you an essay on why I think that the Republican establishment is under-rated.

I did not see the debate. Did anyone go after Donald Trump as a loser? As President, he did not drain the Swamp. Instead the Swamp drained him. He lost in 2020. He is probably the candidate most likely to lose to Biden in 2024. He has some necessary enemies, and I can sympathize with his fights against them. But he has way too many unnecessary enemies, meaning people who have tried to work for him and with him, only to be on the receiving end of his anger and abuse. That is why he is a loser.

Ungar-Sargon also says,

There is a huge divide in the GOP between what the donor class wants, which is the fight against wokeness, and what the voter base wants, which is an economy that works for the hardest-working Americans. 

It sounds right to me that more voters would care about Peoria than Princeton.

The WSJ reports,

The U.S. has at least 600 fewer nursing homes than it did six years ago, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of federal data. More senior care is happening at home, and the Covid-19 pandemic caused many families to shun nursing homes while draining workers from an already short-staffed industry.

The result? Frail elderly patients are stuck in hospitals, a dangerous place for seniors, waiting for somewhere to go—sometimes for months. Beds are disappearing while the need for senior care is growing. The American population 65 and older is expected to swell from 56 million in 2020 to 81 million by 2040.

But it isn’t the population aged 65 and older that drives the need for nursing homes. I am older than 65, and I do not need a nursing home.

What matters is the population that is unable to take care of itself. I don’t know what drives that number, but I doubt that it is increasing at the rate that the over-65 population is increasing. I recall reading about “morbidity compression,” which means that however long people live, it is the last three years of life where things really tend to go down hill.

I suspect that the nursing home sector’s problems are on the supply side, especially with staffing. I suspect that at the bottom of the staffing shortage you will find a dysfunctional set of government regulations.

Substacks referenced above:

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Weekend Listening: The First GOP Debate and the Elephant Not in the Room

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Section Guy Runs For President