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forumposter123@protonmail.com's avatar

My big takeaway from war spending is that nominal GDP has a very loose relationship with real war potential.

Russia has spent $132B on the war so far. Ukraine, with western assistance, has spent about as much. But Russian spending is in Russian dollars, which go a lot further than western spending in western dollars. Hence they make a 155mm shell for 10% of the price in greater quantity, amongst other metrics.

Would the US defense industry be interested in producing 155mm shells for 10% of the price? I suspect the markup is the whole point, and that if the markup went away interest in funding the Ukraine war would go away. Several parents in my kids elementary school class work in NatSec, including directly on issues related to Ukraine, and real estate here in NOVA doesn't come cheap. They talk a lot about how to make the most on NatSec contracting and the best career opportunities.

Beyond the Ukraine war, at a minimum we ought to be measuring combat potential and spending on a PPP basis, and even that may understate. Hence China, Russia, and the rest are a lot bigger compared to us then people would like to think.

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Nicholas Weininger's avatar

The thing about Yankee (aka Puritan/Quaker) culture is that it is an essentially middle class culture, dedicated to what McCloskey calls the bourgeois virtues. Psmith gestures at this but ultimately underplays its importance.

Like middle-class-minded people everywhere, Yankees set their virtues in self-conception against the vices of the people traditionally "above" and "below" them: that is, against the corruption, uselessness, and clannishness of the aristocracy on the one hand, and the vulgarity, violence, and untrustworthiness of the lower classes on the other. This is a crucial motivator of the extraordinarily intense Yankee detestation of Trump, because Trump embodies both aristocratic and lower-class vices at once.

I say all this fwiw as an echt-Yankee on my mother's side -- an ancestor of mine was Harvard class of 1642.

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