Keeping up with the FITs, 4/15
Bryan Caplan on sexual identity; Timothy Taylor on intangible wealth; Andrew Sullivan on sex ed for kids; Ukraine and horseshoe theory
The numbers for bisexuality are especially shocking. Over the course of five generations, bisexual identity has multiplied by a factor of 75! Lesbian identity has multiplied twenty-fold, transgender identity ten-fold. Even gay identity is six times as common in Generation Z as among traditionalists.
What's going on? The answer is clearly not, “Gay genes exploded in the population.” Gays have far fewer biological children than straights. Fertility was conceivably equal back when almost all gays lived in the closet, but there can be little doubt that during the last fifty years, gay genes have become less prevalent.
Some of the comments (I wrote one) are interesting. Emil Kirkegaard links to his own essay, which says,
We see a quite marked reduction in fertility. Looks like about 0.3 children for gays, 0.7 for lesbians, compared with 2.5 for heterosexuals in these years. Makes you wonder to which degree fertility decline can be attributed to increased prevalence of non-heterosexuals, but it's probably not a lot since these are still rare.
. . .genetic selection against non-heterosexuality is very strong, and yet it increases. OK, people are probably somewhat more inclined to label themselves non-heterosexual these days, but I don't think we can doubt that homosexual sex rates have increased markedly.
If you are trying to choose a sexual identity or “lifestyle,” keep in mind that life satisfaction is very high among grandparents. The path that leads in that direction is the old-fashioned normal one.
the wealth embodied in the education and skills (and health) of people is much more important than the wealth from produced capital–which includes everything physical from houses to business equipment. I sometimes think that from an economic point of view, pretty much everything cycles back to human capital sooner or later.
He is commenting on the latest World Bank estimates of the sources and distribution of wealth across the world. Nick Schulz and I were inspired to write Invisible Wealth (originally From Poverty to Prosperity) in part by one of the earliest World Bank studies of this sort. I think our book is still a worthwhile read.
These teaching materials aim to be inclusive of the tiny minority of trans children — but they do this by essentially universalizing the very rare experience of being transgender, and suggesting that everyone’s gender is completely independent of biological sex, and trumps it in any conflict. The only way to help trans kids feel better about themselves, this argument goes, is to tell the lie that their experience is everybody’s experience. We are all varieties of trans people now, choosing our sex and performing our gender.
He quotes from various educational materials for young children. My guess is that the parental reaction to these materials is probably:
10 percent heartily approve; 20 percent are basically ok; 30 percent are not violently opposed but don’t see why it’s desirable; 40 percent are violently opposed.
If those guesses are approximately right, then on this issue the teachers’ unions and their lapdog Democrats have done the political equivalent of bombing Pearl Harbor. As Admiral Yamamato is reputed to have said, they have awakened a sleeping giant and filled him with a terrible resolve.
The horseshoe theory of politics is that the far left and the far right reach similar conclusions. For example, Robert Wright, a Fantasy Intellectuals Team star on the left, thinks that our goal in Ukraine should be a negotiated settlement, not an open-ended war to try to bleed Russia. The hardcore antiwar libertarians reach a similar conclusion. Hence, this interview with a cranky former colonel, Douglas Macgregor. Note that near the end the interviewer, Scott Horton, gets a Devil’s Advocate point for asking Macgregor to respond to those who say that Putin is playing out a fantasy or ideology of conquest.
The benefits from endless quagmire in Ukraine are as immense as they are obvious. The military budget skyrockets. Punishment is imposed on the arch-nemesis of the Democratic Party — Russia and Putin — while they are bogged down in a war from which Ukrainians suffer most. The citizenry unites behind their leaders and is distracted
Greenwald used to be on the left end of the horseshoe. Now?
My 25 year old niece "came out" as bisexual. She is currently not dating, but has only ever dated young men. She has a decent marketing job and works all over the US. I don't know why she would adopt the "bisexual" label at this time but imo what's the harm? My observation has been women are more apt to identify as lesbian or bisexual than men are to identify as gay or bisexual. But this whole gender/sexual identification as something you are not is a somewhat recent phenomenon. It must be signaling. Like pretending to be a populist when you have a degree from Yale.
The whole trans panic thing I guess I just don't get. I must live a pretty quiet life here. I do see some people trying a little bit too hard to be supportive, and to be "allys." But I guess Ron Desantis believes it will take him all the way to the white house. It might. But not because I believe there is a real problem here. But what do I care? I'm an old rich white guy and Desantis will no doubt make me richer.
GG - was he ever on the left? I guess maybe he was seen as a Bernie Bro for a while there but he has always been first a "libertarian" (whatever that means today) and that generally puts him on the right side of the horseshoe? Not really the end of the horseshoe imo. That would be reserved for the White Nationalist Authoritarians? Maybe he's that, too. As someone noted above trying to place all this on a left/right axis is getting near impossible.
Andrew Sullivan. Goodness. He seems to have gone off the deep end lately.
Caplan. Commenter John Bowman deals with him pretty convincingly.
Ukraine. I try not to get too emotionally invested. I do think Russia is committing war crimes that grow more egregious by the day. It really is shocking to me that Putin thinks this is okay. I guess he figures winners don't go to the docket in The Hague. He's probably correct about that.
Yours Truly,
One of Your Few Democratic Commenters!
Re: "The horseshoe theory of politics is that the far left and the far right reach similar conclusions."
I take this as evidence that "left" and "right" are outdated concepts that don't carve politics at the joints.
Even if a "first past the post" electoral system tends to foster a two-party political system, there nonetheless will be many cross-cutting policy issues.
Might the median voter more or less agree with Robert Wright and Douglas Macgregor, whilst the military-industrial complex (per Glenn Greenwald) gets its way?