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Yancey Ward's avatar

A hypothetical:

An office drone, whose job is preparing reports for other office drones, uses an LLM to write the reports in 5 minutes that used to take 8 hours. Who benefits economically? Of course, the office drone #1 benefits- he is earning the same salary as before for approximately 1/100th of the previous effort. What would such an office drone do with that extra free time at work? It likely would be detrimental for him to let his employer know that he was getting the same work done in 1% of the time as before as the employer/manager might well just lay him off and let the LLM do all the work.

What I am trying to figure out is where exactly LLMs will offer the greatest economic benefits/material wealth to the overall population generally in the near term (like next 20 years). I see medical diagnoses/care plans, legal work of all kinds, perhaps teaching, but I am having a hard time coming up with others. This is different than automation for production of real materials and goods.

I was thinking about the writers' strike in Hollywood yesterday or the day before- I can see LLMs putting those people out of work inside of 10 years, along with almost all "journalists" and novelists. Does ChatGTP have its own Substacks yet? What if Arnold or The Zvi is producing every single one of their posts these days using an automated LLM- how could we tell; do we benefit economically? What would the world do with a new novel written in the style of Charles Dickens every single day, or every report required by the Department of Labor written in a grand total of 1 workerday for the entire US corporate landscape?

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Graham Cunningham's avatar

"Schools aren’t teaching students how to write in cursive any more. Is that such a loss?"

I could not disagree more! I used to be a teacher. Educational theorists coming up with the notion (1980's if I remember right) that ticking multiple choice tick boxes was a valid substitute for kids actually having to express their knowledge in sentence form. This must rank as one of the stupidest ideas in the history of schooling.

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