Fertility Links, 2/23/2025
everyone is writing about it
Within a roughly 24 period, the following substacks were about the fertility issue.
much of the Western world had already reached sub-replacement fertility before the Second World War, only to be interrupted by the “baby boom.”
Middle Eastern and North African societies historically consolidated trusted networks of kinship through cousin marriage. But over the past 50 years, there has been a massive decline in fertility. This entails fewer cousins of a suitable age.
It is a vicious cycle in that culture.
High rise apartment towers (as they are usually built these days) are catastrophic for birth rates, and the causes are clear: there is no yard for kids to play in; kids bother the neighbours; and most apartments are too small for families.
I keep making the case for cul de sacs.
In past societies, one reason to accept the costs of producing and rearing children was in order to have someone to take care of you in your old age. For a couple to reliably end up with two adult children required a rate of reproduction sufficient to maintain, perhaps grow, the population.
We now have Medicaid and Social Security in the US, in other countries equivalent institutions. Having children who care for you is still valuable but less essential than in the past. Social expectations have shifted accordingly, still with some assumed obligations to parents but much weaker obligations than in the past.
Men’s fertility is highest when they have just one sexual partner and male promiscuity destroys male fertility
substacks referenced above:
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"High rise apartment towers (as they are usually built these days) are catastrophic for birth rates, and the causes are clear: there is no yard for kids to play in; kids bother the neighbours; and most apartments are too small for families.
I keep making the case for cul de sacs."
Two points:
Tenement housing was pretty dense. Didn't seem to stop the immigrants. Same goes for people in public housing high-rises. Also, I don't think we're all that far from all-time high home ownership, though I suppose the share of homes that are condos has increased. Still, I'd bet the share of child-bearing age adults in high-rises is way down from its peak however many decades ago that was.
Actually there is an option that is probably better than cul de sacs. In a grid of residential streets, block off each street at one or more points to make impossible to drive straight through the neighborhood. Besides being something easily done to old neighborhoods, it has the advantage of allowing pedestrians and bicycles to pass through the closures.
Not picking on David Friedman here but I found "There is one more explanation that someone offered in an online discussion, one that had not occurred to me but probably has to many others." amusing and appreciate he was honest about the bubble.
On the flip side, I've never NOT heard that as the primary reason to have kids until I left the Midwest. Hell I've told my kids the same and my childless siblings are in panic mode over it now as they enter middle age. It's not just about whether SS, MC, and long term care insurance will cover your bills, it's also just about having someone care. No one wants to end their days in a state nursing home surrounded by apathetic former addicts who wish you'd die already while doped up in a soiled diaper. I've seen that way too often and it's sad.