Fantasy Baseball, 2023

Annual post on the topic. Feel free to skip

Every year I have a theme. This year’s theme is “Don’t pay for roster filler.” Roster filler are players who are very likely to produce results that are a little below the average level needed to win the league. In a Yahoo Rotisserie league, it might be a hitter with a .265 average, 18 HRs, 8 SBs, 70 runs scored, and 70 RBI. It might be a starting pitcher with 8 wins, 140 strikeouts, a 3.60 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. It might be a reliever with 10 saves, 60 strikeouts, a 3.30 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP.

You will end up taking some roster filler. But don’t pay for it.

One reason to avoid paying for roster filler is that there is no trophy for finishing 5th. To finish in the money, you need to take some boom-or-bust candidates where you get lucky and/or you need to make good decisions during the season to pick up players that surprise everyone by being better than expected.

There is a skewed distribution of player value. At the end of the season, you can divide players into three groups: high (worth drafting in rounds 1-5), medium (worth drafting in rounds 6 through 17), and low (can be picked up round 18 or later). Skewness means that before the season, medium and low are harder to distinguish than medium and high. The distinctions that you think you can make are likely to prove illusory.

To put it in hypothetical numerical terms, suppose we take a sample of 10 players drafted before the season starts in the first 5 rounds. The chances are that 7 will end up in the high category, 2 will end up in the medium category, and 1 will end up in the low category.

But in a sample of 10 players drafted in rounds 6 through 17, probably only 1 will end up in the high category, 5 will end up in the medium category, and 4 will end up in the low category.

In a sample of 10 players drafted in round 18 or later, probably at least 3 will end up in the medium category, and others you can try to replace during the season.

So players in the medium category before the season starts are a bad bet!

In a draft, you cannot avoid taking players in rounds 6 through 17. Instead of drafting “safe” roster filler, I would go for players with boom-or-bust expected outcomes.

In an auction, you can avoid roster filler. In a Yahoo format, with 23 players, out of $260, I aim to spend $150 on my top five hitters, $70 on my top four pitchers, and $40 on the remaining 14 players. It is like trading all of my round 6 through 17 picks for 4 additional picks in the first 5 rounds and 8 additional picks in the last 6 rounds.

The roster-filler players in a Yahoo auction will have prices under $20 and more than $5. I will only take some pitchers in that range, but preferably no hitters. I let other owners fill out their rosters at those prices, while I wait for the end of the auction.

I hesitate to use this as a metaphor for investment strategy. But I suppose that a venture capitalist wants to avoid “roster filler,” as does an investment adviser with no skin in the game and a goal of making a name for himself. But for most prudent individuals and financial institutions, “roster filler” is just fine.