Discussion about this post

User's avatar
John Alcorn's avatar

Arnold, Are the assigned materials, or a list thereof (i.e., a syllabus), available at your course website? I can navigate the seminar discussions but can't seem to find the syllabus at the course link.

I might be able to provide better feedback about exit questions if I knew what materials have been assigned.

Expand full comment
Various's avatar

My guess is that there is a relatively small number of factors responsible for most of the decline in fertility rates.

1. First, I would guess that 2/3rds of it is coming from the women. Collectively they've decided to marry less often, and marry later. This is because they increasingly believe they can lead fulfilling lives without husbands, or at least defer the marriage decision until they've checked off other "boxes" in their lives. I think this is also true for men. As a race, us humans now have many more "callings" in life than marriage and family.

2. Don't underestimate the effect of media, both "legacy" media and newer forms (e.g., social media). These portray the single life as something quite glamorous. This started maybe with the advent of movies int he 1930s and came from America (Hollywood) and maybe Britain too. I think this fear of missing out (FOMO) factor is big.

3. I would also not underestimate the self-reinforcing element of declining fertility. For decades now, the trend has consistently been down. China presents a good case for this momentum effect because the downward trend in the fertility rate didn't budge when the One Child policy was lifted years ago. So even though this "momentum" element is not a primary driver of declining fertility, I would guess that it is magnifying the magnitude of the decline

Expand full comment
14 more comments...

No posts

Ready for more?