Discussion about this post

User's avatar
Scott Gibb's avatar

Tyler's essay is one of the most thoughtful essays I've read this year, however it could be even more optimistic than it is. I would say that AI is the most liberating technology in my lifetime, perhaps most liberating for men.

Arnold says: I continue to believe that the biggest risk you can take of making a fool of yourself is to make statements of the form “AI will never be able to ____.”

Well, let me prudently go down that road -- that's where the comparative advantages are, maybe? Because if AI can easily do something, then maybe you shouldn't make that your living. Unless of course you like the idea of doing a lot more of it (because of AI), e.g. see Tyler's example of the young man with five programming jobs because of AI. In other words, perhaps the expectation will become: "Hey, you should be able to do 5X with AI, and if you aren't, we don't want you." In the construction trades, sheet rock and framing is considered volume work. Volume work is lower status and physically draining. So, will AI spawn new categories of volume work? Probably.

Instead of saying "never" let's say it will be a "long time" before AI can replace a plumber, a finish carpenter, an electrician, a farmer, certain welding tasks, and anything that would require a custom-designed robot to accomplish a specific task. If your career involves many such different tasks, then AI will not replace you anytime soon. Right now AI can teach plumbing, but it can't do plumbing and it will be a long time before it can. It will be a long time before AI can do any type of custom building and fixing of physical things. The human body will be superior to AI for a long time in this area. I see this as being a good thing for men. Perhaps AI is more a threat to women and professors?

Expand full comment
Charles Powell's avatar

We see AI everywhere but in the productivity statistics

Expand full comment
22 more comments...

No posts